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International Investment
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Excerpt from Research Proposal:
International Investment in Thailand
...... It is likely that the air travel disruptions of April (peak European vacation season) would have had a negative impact on the Thai tourist industry whatever the domestic political situation happened to be. Nonetheless, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij has warned that pre-crisis forecasts will have to be scaled back by roughly 2 percentage points to reflect the impact on tourism in particular (Tarrant). However, the Thai governments guidance on growth has been conservative; if we take the World Banks pre-crisis estimate of 6.2% (Thailand Business News) and factor in Chatikavanijs warning, Thailands near-term growth potential comes in at a healthy 4.2%
From a pure value perspective, Thai stocks are already trading at relatively cheap levels (Reuters). The SET is valued at roughly 12 times estimated 2010 earnings, which makes it the second-cheapest market in Asia (behind Pakistan) and significantly undervalued compared to Indonesia (14 times 2010 earnings) or Malaysia (15.7 times 2010 earnings). While it may be time to reconsider our sector weightings in order to take advantage of bargains in Bangkok (and dump stocks that are looking rich or in danger of deteriorating further as the political crisis continues), it would probably not be prudent to move money
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