¶ … Rules for Effective Forecasting:
The main goal of forecasting is to identify the complete range of probabilities facing a society, organization, or the entire world. Forecasting is a process based on prediction and a major process in determining the future and how to prepare for it. This process of forecasting is based on the myth of accurate prediction, which is based on the assumption that forecasting is achievable in a world with preordained events and that the present does not impact the future. Since prediction is centered on determining future certainty, forecasting should focus on identifying the whole range of probabilities rather than a limited set of illusory certainties. Therefore, the major task or responsibility of the forecaster is to chart uncertainty in attempts to recognize the full range of possibilities.
In his article, Paul Saffo demystifies the process of forecasting in order to assist executives to become complicated and engage consumers of forecasts. This process of demystifying forecasting does not focus on making executives and consumers passive absorbers. The author demonstrates how forecasts can be used to widen understanding of possibilities and limit the decision space within which an individual must exercise spontaneity. As a result of his focus, Saffo examines what executives can do to avoid being surprised or blind-sided by wild cards like the events of 9/11. Moreover, he examines what executives can do to avoid being surprised by radical changes in markets or the relatively abrupt emergence of disruptive technologies (Saffo, 2007, p.122).
Saffo...
These rules for executives are planning a cone of uncertainty, look for the S curve, embrace strong opinions loosely, accept things that don't fit, evaluate the past as much anticipating the future, and determine unsuitable time to make a forecast. The author provides these rules as a means of giving executives tools they can use to evaluate forecasts themselves.
The first rule i.e. defining a cone of uncertainty is based on the need to rely on intuition and judgment as a decision maker. The eventual intuition and judgment is based on the essential context provided by effective forecasting to guide the process. Effective forecasting also widens an individual's understanding through exposing overlooked possibilities and unexamined assumptions regarding expected outcomes while narrowing decision space for exercising intuition. The process of mapping a cone of uncertainty is considered as a mechanism for outlining possibilities that goes beyond a specific event or moment. During this process, the forecaster focuses on defining the cone in a way that enables the decision maker to exercise strategic judgment. This process incorporates several considerations including defining the breadth of the cone of uncertainty, relationships among elements, and positioning of probable outcomes (Saffo, 2007, p.2).
The second rule is to look for the S curve since change rarely spreads…
Whirlpool Whirl Pool Supply Chain Management Supply Chain Management Critical appraisal of Whirlpool's Supply Chain Management Company Overview Products and Services Critical review of Operations Contribution to business performance System Changes Changes in Internal Forecasting Process Business Performance Results Criteria for trade Partner Fit Competitive advantage Critical Evaluation of System Customer Centric-Supply Chain Management System Collaborative Supply Chain Whirlpool's production Current System Changes Planning and sourcing decisions Planning Sourcing Drawbacks of Whirlpool delivery system Inventory Delivery Factors for taking supply chain management decision Figure: Supply Chain Performance factors Gap Analysis Strategic partnership Integration Reduced Cost and Inventory Future trends
Pharmaceutical industries have to operate in an environment that is highly competitive and subject to a wide variety of internal and external constraints. In recent times, there has been an increasing trend to reduce the cost of operation while competing with other companies that manufacture products that treat similar afflictions and ailments. The complexities in drug research and development and regulations have created an industry that is subject to intense
public budgeting comparisons of the federal, state and local budget distributions. This thesis will be focused on whether or not the increased budget allocations for transportation in the federal, state and local government will enhance travel security, efficiency, performance measures and R&D development in the domain. The thesis will start off with a proposal for an agency that works across and is allocated budget in all the federal, state
Creating Organizational Value through the Integration of Information Technology: A Management Perspective Change Management and the Construction of a Receptive Organization Transformational and Participative Leadership A Decentralized Organizational Culture Effective Utilization of Resources Simulations Performance Monitoring Systems Risk Management and Support Strategies When considering the ever-changing and highly competitive global landscape of business today, firms must stay at the cutting edge of their respective fields in order to sustain profitability in the long-term. With the current exponential growth
Forensic Mental Health Legislation and Policies As a probation and parole officer in Australia, one of the major issues that need to be addressed through best practice is dealing with mentally ill offenders. This is an emerging issue to be dealt with in order to provide suitable programs and support to lessen recidivism. The significance of addressing this issue is evident in the substantial attention given to offenders with mental illness
A large body of literature has treated many different aspects of these influences on Asia, Europe and the United States (Busser & Sadoi, 2003). The importance of the study relates to the current trends taking place in Libya where aggressive steps have been taken in recent years to normalize relations with the international community. For example, Libya opened up its programs to develop weapons of mass destruction to international