9/11 Commission Report -- Prisoner\'s Dilemma \'Cooperation

9/11 Commission Report -- Prisoner's Dilemma

'Cooperation is usually analyzed in game theory by means of a non-zero-sum game called the 'Prisoner's Dilemma'" (Anonymous). Basically this game has two players who have two options. They can either choose to "defect" or "cooperate." An example is seen where the police takes two suspects into custody for interrogation. If suspect A chooses to defect i.e. he confesses his involvement in the crime and testifies about the involvement of suspect B, then he has a chance to go free. If suspect B. cooperates i.e. he does not testify, whereas suspect A does, then suspect A will go free whereas suspect B. will go to jail. However, if both defect then none of them go free and both serve time but for a comparatively lesser amount of time. If both of them remain silent then minor charges would be put against them and they would serve an even lesser time in jail. This in essence is "Prisoner's Dilemma."

In the study of foreign policy prisoner's dilemma is an interesting factor. Let's assume that the concerned nation A, whose foreign policy has to be formulated, has two different countries to deal with where it is assumed that one nation B. And the other nation C. are suspects for being anti-nation A. To find out for sure who the mastermind is and to gain enough evidence, the two suspect nations can be interrogated separately and promised a reward if they defect against the other. Once one nation defects, that nation can be considered as a friend and rewarded while sanctions and appropriate action can be taken against the other who cooperated. It is important for foreign policy making to apply prisoner's dilemma so that secrets against the nation whose foreign policy is being formulated can be known and steps can be taken to prevent any disaster.

Recently United States witnessed a terrible incident that should have never occurred. September 11, 2001 brought some immense changes globally. Bin Laden was wanted since quite some time by the United States for the bombing of its embassies and the U.S.S. Cole. Afghanistan and the long time supporter of the Taliban regime, Pakistan were pressed through diplomatic means to defect against Bin Laden and pressurize the Taliban to root him out of Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance, the opposition to the Taliban regime, was also contacted to defect against Bin Laden and the CIA also hired individuals from amongst them to kill Bin Laden. After September 11, Pakistan did defect against Afghanistan and provided bases to the United States for its war on Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance also became an ally of the United States in the war against terror. Moreover from the report it is seen that after 9/11, Saudi Arabia also started sharing intelligence against Bin Laden with the United States. Previously they did not share complete information despite the fact that top officials from both sides were working together against Bin Laden. When these nations and people defected against Bin Laden, there were some changes in the U.S. foreign policy regarding these countries. After the overthrow of the Taliban regime, Northern Alliance was installed as the interim government. Northern Alliance was rewarded for its defect against Bin Laden and his supporters, the Taliban. The U.S. has also made it a point to get over and solve the U.S.-Saudi problems and to develop a strong relationship between the countries that go beyond the superficial relationship concerning oil. Moreover, the U.S. is now looking forward to strengthen long-term ties with both Pakistan and Afghanistan. International commitments are also being made for a better and bright future of the two countries.