Climate change's impact on food security in Nigeria

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA: ISSUES AND WAY FORWARD

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

STUDY BACKGROUND

1. Man and the environment has co-existed for years since time immemorial. This is because man and the environment are inseparably linked in all aspects of human life, well-being and sustainable living. Thus, man makes use of the environment for his livelihood in a protective manner. Nevertheless, there has been enormous pressure on the environment especially in the later stages of the 20th century. This is due to accelerated human activities causing greater environmental degradation and endangering man’s future survival. In terms of the degradation of the physical and biological environment of spaceship of the earth, man’s existence has caused certain irreversible damages.[endnoteRef:1] This could be attributed to an exponential increase in the level of resource utilization, both renewable and non-renewable as a result of industrial revolution. [1: . Tilakasiri S L Water Land and Oeople in Climate Change Issues, Challenges and Perspectives Sri Lanka Neptune Publications 2016 p 12.]

2. Industrial revolution has brought about increase in the production of goods, food and consumption of energy. It created a dominant technology driven culture particularly in developed countries such as United Kingdom (UK), Canada and China among others.[endnoteRef:2] For instance, the climate index shows that the annual carbon dioxide emissions in the United States of America (USA), China and India were 10150.82, 5311.69 and 2430.8 million tons respectively.[endnoteRef:3] Consequently, human activities have changed the state of the environment. Over the last one hundred years or so, the use of fossil fuels e.g. oil and coal has steadily increased the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. The increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is due to the combination of carbon from the burning of the fuels and oxygen in the environment to form carbon dioxide. Although, the industrial revolution is aimed towards better living, it affects the environment and ultimately contributes to climate change.[endnoteRef:4] [2: . Caineng Z, Energy revolution: From a fossil energy era to a new energy era retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/natural-gas-industry-b/vol/3/issue/1 Accessed 5 October 2018.] [3: . Carbon Dioxide and other Greenhouse Gas Emissions". Our World in Data. Retrieved 5 October 2018.] [4: . Nasa Report on causes of Global Climate Change https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/ Acessed 7 October 2018.]

3. Climate change has brought about increase in environmental challenges like floods, erosion, drought, diseases, and desertification. These negative environmental outcomes have negatively affected agriculture over the years and subsequently affected food security. The negative outcomes have led to the creation of organizations locally and international which strive to contain the problems created climate change especially the lack of food security. These organizations include the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and the UNEP (United Nations Environmental Program).[endnoteRef:5] The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was for a very long time the primary global agreement on dealing with climate change. The agreement was signed in 1992 at the Rio Summit and was subsequently ratified by more than 190 countries across the globe. It was the first real global agreement that got as many countries across the world involved in fighting climate change, preventing global warming, and mitigating the negative effects of climate change.[endnoteRef:6] [5: . Society of Environmental Journalist https://www.sej.org/initiatives/international-agencies/international-agencies Acessed 10 October 2018.] [6: . Documents from the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (also known as UNCED or the Earth Summit).]

4. The negative outcomes of climate change are already being experienced in Western nations. Research shows that the USA will be affected more than other nations across the globe by the negative outcomes of climate change. According to a major new report, it is only in recent years that scholars have been able to develop reliable data and predictions that present reliable information on the economic damage caused by CO2 emissions.[endnoteRef:7] This is surprising considering that most already predicted that the worst affected countries could be in the developing world yet the study is showing that even the world’s biggest economies could be some of the worst affected by climate change. The study was based on finding how much countries lose via CO2 emissions (the social cost of emissions). The new study further shows that USA’s economy in fact stands to lose considerably from climate change. Other countries that the study found to be most affected by carbon emissions include India and China. [endnoteRef:8] [7: . Independent Newspaper https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-global-warming-effects-country-us-india-saudi-arabia-Acessed November 2018.] [8: ]

5. Over the last one or two decades, China has been the biggest emitter of CO2 and other heat trapping gases to the atmosphere. In fact, some studies shows that its emissions far surpass the emissions from other countries. For instance, just in 2017, the country is thought to have emitted a mind-boggling 11,700,000,000 metric tons of CO2 and other gases. This is estimated to be about 25% of the world total. Of the 11.7 billion metric tons, 9.2 billion tons are CO2, the gas that has brought the worst damage to the environment. The 9.2 billion tons emitted by China are more than what all the industrialized countries in the European Union plus the United States emit annually. The massive emissions from the country are thought to already be affecting food production systems in the country because of the negative changes they have brought about to the climate and to the environment. One of the biggest changes is the rising temperatures (global warming). Rising temperatures have shortened the times of the year for food growth resulting in poor yields. In several regions, climate change has resulted in seasonal droughts that have put stress on available water resources. As it is evident, the environmental changes have strongly threated food security. This was one of the reasons why safeguarding food security was one of the key pillars of the 2015 Paris Climate Change accord.[endnoteRef:9] [9: . Shuai Ib et al Impacts of climate change on agriculture: Evidence from China Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Volume 76, 2016, pp. 105-124]

6. Climate change has particularly affected food security in Africa. For instance, Kenya’s agricultural systems have been negatively affected by climate change. Tea, one of Kenya’s top exports, has been strongly affected by climate change. This is because climate change has resulted in unpredictable rainfall and more instances of hail storms that have negatively affected productivity and tea crops in the country’s tea growing regions.[endnoteRef:10] As of now, more than half a million tea growers are already facing a bleak future because of this. Officials in the country are already questioning the viability of the tea crop and wanting to take steps to prepare for the future. Also, more than 500,000 farmers of tea have experienced erratic rainfall, greater frost and high temperatures that have threatened their livelihood.[endnoteRef:11] For instance, post-harvest losses have been estimated at 50% of previous totals. Officials are attributing this to climate change. Once crops have been harvested, the unusual rains dampen the crop yields and result in mould growth, due to reliance on weather (sun) for drying farm produce.[endnoteRef:12] [10: . Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. 2016. Kenya facts and figures 2016. ] [11: . Stephens, W.; Othieno,. Climate and Weather Variability at Tea Research Foundation of Kenya. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 61 p 219.] [12: ]

7. As it is evident in the last couple of paragraphs, climate change has emerged as one of the biggest challenges to the world in the 21st century. Its negative outcomes are being experienced in almost every corner of the globe including in the developed and in the developing parts of the world. Countries that are poor and with less resources to fight climate change (low coping capability) have been worse affected. Nigeria, a developing nation with a huge population of more than 180 million people, is among the worst affected countries. Some of the negative effects of climate change experienced in the country include increase in occurrences of drought especially in the north, increase in flooding, extreme weather events, reduction in fresh water sources, increase in sea level, less reliable rainfall, and rise in temperatures.[endnoteRef:13] These negative outcomes driven by climate change have affected the lives of tens of millions of Nigerians. One of the authorities directly dealing with some of the outcomes is the country’s emergency response organization – NEMA (National Emergency Management Agency). According to NEMA, nearly half a million people were affected by flooding in 8 states of the country in September 2018. At least about 108 people have died in the flooding, with a further 192 injured.[endnoteRef:14] More than thirteen thousand housed were destroyed or damaged. Also, at least 140,000 persons ended up getting displaced by flooding. Details of the affected states are as contained at Annex A. [13: . https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/10/03/impact-of-climate-change on Nigeria acessed 16 March 2019.] [14: 14. http://floodlist.com/africa/nigeria-floods-september-2018-Accessed Dec 18]

8. The foregoing indicates that the country is quite vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change. All the six different geopolitical zones of the country have been found to be vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change. Nevertheless, there are differences in vulnerability levels and sources of vulnerability between the zones. For example, the South-West and the South-South zones have been primarily affected by changes brought about by deforestation and rising sea levels. In contrast, the North-West and the North-East zones have been primarily affected by heat stress, desertification, and drought, while the North-Central zone has been affected by over-grazing and deforestation. The last zone, the South-East zone, has been negatively impacted by land degradation, flooding, and erosion.[endnoteRef:15] [15: ]

9. Considering that the Nigerian economy is largely dependent on its oil and agricultural sectors, it is crucial for the country to develop a comprehensive climate change policy to guide how it will act to address the negative effects of climate change. If the situation is not addressed, climate change could derail efforts to eradicate poverty in the country. Climate change it could also affect the sustainability of development in the country. What is encouraging is that the country already has a vision (Vision 20) in place to increase renewable energy sources and to invest in alternative fuel sources by 2020.[endnoteRef:16] To achieve the vision, the Federal government and several CSOs (Civil Society Organizations) formulated the National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change for Nigeria (NASPA-CNN). The plan was designed to reduce vulnerability and the adaptive capacity and the resilience of the nation to the negative effects of brought about by climate change. [16: ]

10. Additionally, in furtherance to Nigeria’s commitment to addressing issues of environmental change, the INDC (Intended National Determination Contribution) was adopted in 2015.[endnoteRef:17] INDC demonstrated the Country’s resolve to promote sustainable economic growth while reducing pollution caused by carbon. In the same vein, President Muhammadu Buhari stated during the COP 24 conference in Poland in 2018 Africa contributed little, if any to the climate change menace but were suffering its consequences. The President cited the case of the Lake Chad, down from twenty-five thousand square kilometers to twenty-five hundred square kilometers, 10 per cent only of its established size.[endnoteRef:18] This is jeopardizing the livelihoods of 40 million inhabitants of the basin found in Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon. The consequences of these on the ecosystems are extreme poverty, the displacement of people and inadequate food supplies.[endnoteRef:19] [17: ] [18: ] [19: . https://leadership.ng/2018/12/07/president-buharis-major-principles-on-climate-change/ accessed March 2019.CHAPTER 2LITERATURE REVIEW19. This part of the study looks at the primary concepts, links, arguments, and variables relating to the study. The primary concepts are food security and climate change. The links investigated in this chapter are those between the primary concepts. This chapter also looks at previous landmark studies on the two primary concepts and other issues related to the study before discussing and adopting a theory as a framework for the study. The chapter further highlighted examples from other countries.CONCEPTUAL CLARIFICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE20. Climate change is basically the range of changes in weather and climatic conditions that shift average conditions and result in more frequent and severe extreme weather conditions or happenings. Researcher Ozor (2012) came up with a simpler definition by referring to climate change as an overtime shift in regional or the global climate. Ozor also referred to climate change as the shift in the average weather conditions that takes place within a decade or within millions of years. Though true, Ozor’s definitions tend not to mention that adverse results of climate change that should also surely be part and parcel of its definition. 21. Patrick’s (2015) definition of climate change is more aptly put. He defines climate change as a long term change in weather elements including pressure, wind, precipitation, and temperature. Patrick’s view of climate change is in agreement to the now widely held definition of global warming as the change in air temperatures over a long period of time. Patrick was also of the view that climate change is the measurable increases in the average temperature of earth‘s atmosphere, oceans and landmasses. This definition is deficient in the fact that it dwelled more on the causes of climate change without taking cognizance of its impacts on food security.22. Adejuwon (2017) is of the argument that climate change is a shift in average state of the climate of a region that one can identify by examining the changes from the average conditions. According to this research climate changes often persist for decades and many more years.5 He observed that agriculture depends highly on climate because change in temperature, sunlight and water could affect food production. This definition serves the purpose of this study as it relates climate change to agriculture thus, it is adopted as a working definition for the study.CONCEPTUAL CLARIFICATION OF FOOD SECURITY23. Food security is not easy to define or measure because it is a very broad concept that covers the cultivation, the distribution, and the consumption of food. According to FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization), food security is a situation whereby all persons have economic and physical access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food that is enough of their dietary requirements for a health and active lifestyle.6 The food must also be preferred according to FAO. A region can be food insecure with plenty of food if the food available is not what the people there prefer culturally or religiously. Although a number of countries, especially in Africa, have policies to make themselves food secure, millions of Africans are suffering from malnutrition and hunger as of now. More are even expected to be in the same state in the coming few years because of climate. So the definition by FAO fails to examine factors such as floods, pest and droughts caused by climate change that could seriously affect food security. The 1996 World Food Summit resulted in a definition that took into account the climate change angle of food security. The summit participants defined food security and included its multiple dimensions including access to it, the factors that affect availability, its use, and food stability. 24. Okuneye (2018) has a more comprehensive definition. This researcher defines food security as making sure that there is sustainable affordability, availability, and access of sufficient quality and quantity of to meet the biological requirements of all citizens.7 At the family level, food security refers to the consumption of enough quality food to meet the needs of every individual in the household. The needs include for growth, development, health, and activity. In other words, a family can only be considered food secure, if every family member gets enough food to grow, develop, be active, and be healthy. This means that the family must be able to have enough resources to get enough food for all members. It also means that a family with enough resources may be somewhat food insecure if it does not have access to food that is healthy perhaps because of lack of adequate nutritional knowledge. Access to food for families may be also affected by some environmental impacts of climate change. This could be increase or decrease in annual rain fall, increase temperature and erosion among others. This is the definition that this study will adopt in its objective to find the link between climate change and food security. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE ANDFOOD SECURITY26. In the ancient times, Greek used to refer to the inclination of the sun as Klima. The Greeks used to the word Klima to describe the weather of an area based on the season. Climate change affects food security in several ways through its impact on local, regional, national, and global food production systems and livelihoods. Food security is the result of all the food system processes from production to distribution and use. Climate change would first affect the people and food systems that are already vulnerable therefore, certain livelihood groups need immediate support, but everybody is at risk. Hence, both concepts (food security and climate change) are strongly linked in multiple levels. Their relationship is of particular importance as the imbalance between world population and food production increases.8 Changes in climate have a huge effect on agricultural production systems as they affect both animal and plant health. For example, increased temperatures (resulting in more hot days), reduced rain, and unpredictable weather patterns, have negatively affected agriculture across the length and breadth of Africa. The above changes have been attributed to climate change. This is why latest reports including those by the IPCC have continued to raise the red flag of the sustainability of different agricultural practices in certain areas since it is seeming more certain that more predicted negative effects will become a reality.9 27. The consequences of climate change on food security in the country tend to be more severe for areas in Nigeria with higher temperatures, areas with marginal or already degraded lands. Currently, numerous and extreme weather occurrences including hailstorms, droughts, rising sea levels, and so on have already affected agricultural production, and food distribution.10 The climatic changes especially in rainfall levels and average temperatures will likely disrupt agricultural systems even more in the near future. It is now widely acknowledged that food security is hinged on three pillars utilization, access, and availability. Climate change could affect these 3 pillars of food security. According to the WFP (World Food Programme), about 768 million persons around the world are not be sufficiently nourished by 2080.11 It is thought that the majority of these people will be in Sub-Saharan Africa and in South Asia, where the majority of people depend heavily on agriculture. Furthermore, these part of the world lacks sufficient capacities such as technologies, finances and investments necessary to adapt to climate change.REVIEW OF EXISTING LITERATURES28. In his 2012 work, Ezein, argued that drought is caused by climate change and that it has a direct effect on animal and plant agriculture.11 Ezein also contended that drought often increases the likelihood of fires that can torch grazing fields and other things that farmers rely on. But he fails to relate the effects or implications of drought to food security in Nigeria. On the other hand, Uzoechi (2015) reported 2 cases of drought incidences in Nigeria which resulted in the death of many sheep, goats, and cows and drastically reduced the yields of cereals and other foodstuffs.12 29. In 2017, Parvatha noted acid rain as one of the worst effects of climate change. His argument as to why it is one of the worse was that the rain damages plants directly by seeping into the soil and getting into growing plants.13 This may affect plant growth directly. More importantly, Parvatha noted that when acid rain gets into the soil, it has the potential to wash away important minerals and ions including aluminium, magnesium, and calcium that are needed for optimum plant growth and function. Lack of these nutrients in the soil would also prevent the absorption of nutrients by plants. These devastating effects of acid rains almost always lead to poor yields and reduce food supply in regions. Moreover, the acid rain washes away minerals or ions that may end up in rivers and lakes and could be poisonous to the fishes over there. This could also affect food security especially of the people on the lake shore and their dependants. Nevertheless, it must be noted that Parvatha fails to give clear explanation on what results to acid rain and the possible measure to mitigate its impacts on food security.30. Laurence (2016) also mentioned that changes in rainfall patterns have negatively affected in which food production is primarily via rain-fed agriculture. This is particularly bad considering the fact that over 90 percent of Nigerian food production systems rely on rain. Laurence noted that the lack of predictability of rainfall patterns which has been occasioned by climate change, has affected the cultivation of crops and replanting leading to poor harvests and food shortages. Harvest failure could not only directly bring about food shortage, it could also affect food distribution systems including food processing companies as there will be no raw materials to process.14 The author’s assessments of the situations are true as proven through anecdotal evidences. However, the author does not mention that apart from good rains, other factors such as farm inputs could also affect agricultural production. 31. The IPCC in their report (2017) noted that significant changes in weather patterns often persist for an extended period of time. The report also noted that despite all the many climate changes across the world, the net change has been increase in the global air temperature average.15 In this context climate change is more of a weather phenomenon that is persistent and needs to be addressed urgently. This is because it creates weather changes and since most food production currently depends on stable weather patterns (rain cycles) it becomes difficult to time cultivation and get maximum harvests. This has resulted in poor harvests, poor soils, poor vegetation, and food insufficiency. The Panel further discussed that climate change is an excessive response of the weather occurrences which brings about negative effect on agricultural produces. They further stated that it often results significantly increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. However, they fail to look into how human activities also engender climate change. 32. According to the UNFCCC climate change is a shift in climate conditions that comes as a result of indirect or direct human activity and climate variability. The shift can be noted over similar periods.16 The blame for climate change has squarely been put on human beings by this definition. It is not only factual but was perhaps also in an effort to cajole humans into acting to prevent further deterioration of the situation. The human activities blamed for climate change are primarily industrialization activities and land surface uses.17 This explanation is narrow and limited because it fails to take into cognizance the changes in the physical environment. It also failed to take into consideration the ecology due to climate change, which has adverse effects on the productivity, resilience, and composition of ecosystems. 33. The review of the existing literatures revealed a re-occurrence of similar challenges for food security due to the effects of climate change. However, there is not yet a landmark research done that tries to provide solutions to the recurring climate change factors that affect food security. It is this established gap that this study seeks to cover. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK34. Several commentators have referred to climate change as one of the biggest challenges facing the world right now. Many have also commented the negative effects of climate change will continue to become worse especially in the developing world where many people rely on agriculture. Many experts are now in agreement that climate change is real and that it affects the world in such a way that there will reach a point of no return; a point of unsustainability. Thus, if anything is to be done, it needs to be done quickly to regenerate the earth and to prevent further deterioration of agriculture and other livelihoods because of climate change. Therefore, over the past two decades or so, researchers and social scientists have developed varied theories to explain the dynamics of man and his environment. Some of these theories include the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) Human Forcings besides Greenhouse Gases and Conspiracy theories. Others include the Contingency, Vulnerability theory and Theory of Change (Toc). The proponents of these theories are Jan Hasen for AGW, Roger Pielke for Human Forcings and Diethelm and McKee, 2009 for Conspiracy theories. Westgate, Keefe, and Fred Fiedler, were behind the Contingency Theory. The Theory of Change (TOC) and the Vulnerability Theory were proposed by Anderson, and Wisner, respectively. 35. This author adopts the Theory of Change. According to Anderson (2017), the Theory of Change is about how a group of people from various backgrounds can agree on a common long-term objective/ goal. It is an important approach that has been utilized to evaluate, monitor, and facilitate certain objectives in the global arena.18 It was at a time defined as the theory of action and as the blueprint of change. The Theory of Change works by listing all the building blocks needed for change and then outlining the links between them for the achievement of an objective. When used the right way, this approach allows stakeholders to intervene and produce transformative change. 36. The approach is also a practical and flexible way of constructing a vision for permanent change and for outlining the steps needed to accomplish the vision. Anderson’s Theory of Change is perfect for evaluating, execution, and monitoring of multi-faceted visions and plans including those of eradicating human “sins” such as climate change. Put in a simple way, the theory advocates for going backwards from the ultimate outcome to find the right steps to get to it.19 So for it to work, stakeholders have to first define their ultimate objective and then to find all the steps in between that objective and the current position before aligning the steps in order along the ‘causal pathway. Furthermore, for all the steps in the pathway, there is a need for stakeholders to outline the assumptions, the thresholds, and the indicators. The end result of using this approach is often a change map and a narrative that explains the pathway to the ultimate objective. 37. The Theory of Change could be tailored to various levels of intervention and analysis. The approach is not only meant for big or long-term plans. This is because it could also be used to create change pathways even at the community level and for short-term objectives. Every time this approach is used it should include the narrative/ strategy that shows how everything is to be achieved. For instance, if a ToC strategy was to be made for dealing with the effects of climate change along the Nile River, it could involve steps on how to prevent drawing to prevent deforestation upstream to increase water levels, how to prevent building near river banks to prevent flooding and how to get people living near the river to take flood insurance. All these could help prevent damage and ensure that the river continues flowing for the benefit of all including the food producers downstream.20 It is now accepted by various scholars that the Theory of Change is one of the most solid and effective approaches for coming up with strategies to adapt to climate change and to ensure food production systems remain sustainable. The effects of climate change may be global in nature but it can be addressed at the local level. It can be used at the national or state level in Nigeria to tie different types of programs and projects into a big project with one vision of addressing climate change and helping promote sustainable use of resources in the country.21 Annex B contains details of the Theory of Change. WHAT OTHER COUNTRIES ARE DOINGINDIA CLIMATE CHANGE 38. One of the main areas affected by climate change in the world is South Asia, especially in the Indian subcontinent where the terrain is extremely diverse. Climate change has already affected India adversely and it is expected to have an even more serious impact as the country continues to rapidly exhaust its resources and damage its environment through industrialization, urbanization, and unsustainable farming methods. The country faces many socioeconomic and environmental issues in its goal to protect its dwindling natural resources because of its rapidly growing population. 22 Additionally, the country has already started experiencing more and more adverse weather effects including droughts, floods, and landslides in places like Chennai, and Uttarakhand. 39. According to the World Bank, the global temperatures are expected to increase by 2 degrees Celsius over the next couple of decades. The global financial organization expects this to make India’s monsoon season even more unpredictable.23 Moreover, in the country, over 60 percent of agriculture relies on rain. This makes India also vulnerable to more unpredictable weather patterns. When the temperatures finally rise by the predicted 2 degrees Celsius, the water being used for agricultural production near rivers Brahmaputra, Ganges, and Indus, will go down and further affect agriculture in the country. This is expected to affect the food security of nearly 63 million persons depending on the rivers for their livelihoods. 24 Moreover, the three rivers draw their waters from glacial melt water and snow. This means that they are very susceptible to the rising global temperatures. This could double the risk of flooding in lower areas and after a while reduce water levels to a critical level that is not sustainable for their continued flow. 240. India has no comprehensive law that addresses climate change or any of its many severe effects. The absence of a singular comprehensive legislation has affected the war against climate change in the country. The closest legislation that somehow addresses aspects of climate change is the old 1981 Air Prevention and Control of Pollution Act that was enacted by the congress of India in line with Article 253 of the country’s constitution.2 The main objective of the act is to prevent the release of air pollutants to the environment if they are deemed to be harmful to living creatures.2 One of the pollutants is carbon and therefore, this law somewhat addresses one of the main causes of climate change which is the release of heat-trapping gases into the environment and into the atmosphere. Therefore, this law addresses climate change although it does not actually mention it since the concept was not yet defined when the law was made in the eighties. 41. There are several policy documents on climate change that the Indian legislative body could rely on to make the country’s first comprehensive law on climate change. One of the documents is the Paris accord or agreement. Formally known as the Conference of Parties protocol for fighting climate change, the Paris agreement is the first agreement in the globe that is aimed directly at fighting climate change and addressing its effects. 2 To be able to fight climate change effectively, the agreement proposes a capacity building program, a climate change monitoring framework, and the financial incentives to ensure that everything is working appropriately.29 The Paris Agreement also proposes ways to support vulnerable countries and developing countries to achieve their own climate change reversal initiatives. The Paris accord is also particularly significant to India because India is one of the biggest emitters of carbon into the environment. If the country adopts legislations to follow the change pathways and the goals envisaged in the agreement, it will have taken a major step to help slow down the process of climate change at the national level and at the global level.30ETHIOPIA CLIMATE CHANGE 42. Ethiopia is the second biggest country in East, West, and South Africa in terms of population. It has a population of over one hundred million men, women, and children. Of its massive population, approximately eight million still live in rural areas and rely on agriculture.31 Nearly 90 percent of the country’s population is dependent on agriculture and agriculture also contributes to over 85 percent of the country’s GDP.32 From these statistics, it is easy to see that any changes that will affect agriculture in Ethiopia will badly affect the livelihoods of the majority of Ethiopians and could potentially disrupt the country’s economy. Considering that most of the country’s agriculture is rain-fed agriculture, climate change is potentially one of the biggest threats to food security and to the economy of the country. 43. The country is already experiencing frequent droughts in some parts of its territory. The frequent droughts have severely affected the livestock populations of farmers in the affected parts of the country because less rainfall means less water for livestock to drink and less pasturelands for the animals.33 Climate change has also made rain patterns unpredictable and reduce the amount of rain falling even in highly agricultural productive regions of the country. If this continues, it is thought that it will affect the country’s gross domestic product since it will reduce the amount of flowers, pulses, and coffee exported by it. One of the most susceptible export plants to the global market is coffee. Ethiopia’s Arabica coffee is world famous and earns the country a lot of money. However, the plant is also very sensitive to weather changes and production could stop if the climate continues to change at the current pace.34 44. But there is some good news. The Ethiopian government recently embarked on addressing food insecurity and droughts via taking proactive measures. One of the measures was the establishment of the National Policy and Strategy on Disaster Management document by the Disaster Management and Food Security Agency. This policy document is providing the country with overall guidance on how to address climate change. The country’s government also recently adopted another policy document the CRGE (Climate-resilient green economy) that promises to enable the country to reach middle income economy levels through investing in sustainable agriculture and energy sources by 2025. 35 The new model of growth is expected to measure the development of the country not only in the form of its economic performance but also in the form of its environmental performance. This is pretty good because it will ensure that the government and its agencies work towards protecting the environment. Some of the factors that will be taken into account when looking at environmental performance include access to clean energy, access to clean water, rate of loss of biodiversity, the rate of reducing emission , and how climate shocks are being responded to.3645. Other important climate change policy documents that have been adapted by the country include the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), National Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), and National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) among others.37 46. The Ethiopian government recently received technical support from international environmental organizations such as the Global Green Growth Institute and the Climate and Knowledge Development Network.38 It is said that the country received the support from the international partners because it showed promise by formulating the right environmental policies and following through with them. The government also has very effective decentralized stakeholder consultations that ensures that it collects information from people at the grassroots level. This type of consultations is helping the country to develop appropriate measures to address climate change in its regions. What Nigeria can learn from this is to encourage established agencies to consult widely with stakeholders. Just like the Ethiopian government and its agencies, the Federal government of Nigeria and its agencies should form policies to address climate change, ensure food security through encouraging climate-resistant agricultural production systems, and reduce wastage in supply chains. The sustainable agriculture must be complemented by concerted efforts to reduce the country’s greenhouse gas emissions to prevent further deterioration of the situation in the country. ENDNOTESCHAPTER 3RESEARCH METHODOLOGY47. This section provides an overview of the research methodology used in study. The chapter presents the structural framework which deals with the generation of data as this is critical in an empirical study. The methodology adopted in this study covers the research design, area of study, sample size and sampling procedure. It also include instruments of data collection, validation and reliability of instruments. Finally, method of data collection and analysis would also be highlighted. RESEARCH DESIGN48. The research method adopted for this study is field and survey research. The research assessed the in-depth experience of the respondent to bring out generalization for the study to be meaningful. Primary and secondary data were utilized in order to bring out empirical generalization based on scientific objectivity. AREA OF THE STUDY 49. The area of study lies within Kaduna and Delta States. The target population for the study will be about 250 persons. RESEARCH POPULATION50. The research population would comprise of farmers, staff of NiMet, staff at the Ministry of Environment, staff at the Department of Climate Change, and staff at the Department of Geography Ahmadu Bello University Zaria.SAMPLE SIZE AND SAMPLING PROCEDURES51. In conducting the research, simple random sampling techniques were utilized to select the sample of the study. This was in recognition of the potential difficulties that arise with stratification. Thus, to arrive at individual respondents, both probability and non-probability techniques which utilizes simple random techniques of the general population were adopted. A total of 150 questionnaires were administered in a bid to get the opinions of sampled population with regards to climate change and food security. The sample of the questionnaire is at Annex C.INSTRUMENTS OF DATA COLLECTION 52. The study utilizes both secondary and primary data. Primary data was gathered through questionnaires and unstructured interviews. The secondary data include the internet, journals, government gazettes, newspaper publications, magazines, government report and electronic data. Others are official documents from libraries and government establishments. Data collected from all sources were complemented by the researcher’s personal observations/judgment. VALIDATION OF INSTRUMENTS53. To guarantee the reliability and maximum objectivity, information gathered was validated. The process of validation was principally done by verifying the data gathered and analyzed with other reliable sources. The validation of instrument was further achieved by obtaining counsel from experts in such field. RELIABILTY OF INSTRUMENTS54. The reliability of the instruments was considered as a very important factor. Hence, the reliability of the questionnaire will be determined by the use of a test - retest technique. It involved 2 tests over a period of 2 weeks in the selected states. The Pearson Product Moment Correlation statistical tool will be used. The coefficient of reliability of the 2 sets of scores will be calculated.METHODS OF DATA COLLECTION55. The method of data used in this research were obtained from primary and secondary data. The methods basically used were the questionnaire and secondary data. The methods are discussed below.56. Primary Data. The primary data was gathered farmers, business men/women, staff of Federal Ministry of Environment and researchers from various institutions across Nigeria. This was achieved by administering questionnaires to the targeted respondents. In addition, oral interviews were also conducted to gather information on the views and opinions of respondents.57. Secondary Data. The study involved the gathering of secondary data from unpolished and published materials including the internet seminar papers, magazines, journals, articles, and books. Archived documents, and the libraries of the National Defence College (NDC) and the Armed Forces Command and Staff College (AFCSC) Jaji were also consulted. Resources in the Federal Ministry of Environment and Agriculture were also used during the research.METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS58. Data analysis involved the quantitative and qualitative analysis of data from the information gathered from the questionnaires that were given. Moreover, unstructured interviews and informal interactions were conducted to obtain expert opinion on the subject. Additionally, qualitative data gathered was rationally analyzed on the basis of available facts. From the analyses that were conduction, conclusions were drawn and solutions and recommendations proposed. 59. The data collected were presented in descriptive form. This was done using tables and charts. This is to ensure better understanding and clarity of the research work. NOTES]

11. Because of the importance of the issues related to climate change and the many fundamental changes that need to be done to be able to combat the negative outcomes of climate change successfully, the Nigeria government formed a new department under the Ministry of Environment, the Department of Climate Change. The primary mandate of the Department is to drive climate change actions and efforts across the country. In other words, it is supposed to drive the Federal Government’s climate change agenda. However, despite the active efforts to fight its negative effects, climate change remains a huge Challenge in Nigeria and in the larger West African region. Nigeria has continued to face incidents of extreme weather which in turn affects climate change. The motivation of the study is based on the desire to contribute to increasing the body of knowledge on climate change with respect to its effects on food security in Nigeria.

STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

12. Climate change has affected many countries negatively across the globe. Just like other countries in West Africa, Nigeria has also been adversely affected. The impacts of climate change have resulted in many negative consequences including reduction of agricultural productivity in the country. Farmers have been greatly affected. The main objective of this paper is to find out the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in the country and, in turn, determine how this affects food security in the nation. Because of the damaging effects of climate change in the country, Nigeria has joined the international community in pushing for a global effort to address the causes and the effects of climate change. The country has already ratified several accord to fight climate change regionally and globally. For instance, Nigeria is party to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change that it ratified in 1994. The country is also party to the Kyoto Protocol and the recent Paris Accord that it ratified in 2017.
13. Notwithstanding all government programmes, none has yielded the desired result. Furthermore, inadequate awareness has made human activities to continue carry out activities that aggravate climate change. The need for concerted efforts towards winning the war on climate change necessitated this study. It is considering this background that this paper seeks to answer the following queries.
a. How is climate change linked to food security in the country?
b. What factors affect both food security and climate change?
c. How is climate change impacting food security in the country?
d. What obstacles are affecting the war against climate change in Nigeria as it pertains food security?
e. How can the obstacles be overcome to achieve food security in the country?
THE OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
14. The main goal of this study is to determine how climate change is affecting the food security situation in the country. The specific objectives are as follows:
a. To find out how climate change is affected food security/
b. To find out the issues linked to both the changes to the climate and food security in Nigeria.
c. To study the impacts of climate change on the food security situation in Nigeria.
d. To find out the obstacles affecting the war against climate change in Nigeria as it pertains food security.
e. To find out how the obstacles be overcome to achieve food security in the country.
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

15. The study will help to proffer solutions on curtailing climate change for enhanced food security. Also, this study will be important in area of policy advancement to the policy-makers in Nigeria. If the government and other policy makers end up adopting some of the findings of the study, the effects of climate change will very likely be significantly reduced. It will advance the frontiers of knowledge on the efficient manner to which climate variation could be regulated in Nigeria.
16. Additionally, the study would fill some gaps in literature with regards to climate change and its effects on food security. It then follows that it will contribute to the body of knowledge on the relationship between climate change and food security. The study would be important for anyone interested in this field of study. It will also assist to stimulate further studies on the issues related with food security and climate change.
SCOPE OF THE STUDY
17. This study investigates the negative effects of climate change on food security in Nigeria. It covers the period from 2008-2018. This period showed the devastating effects that changes to the climate can bring about e.g. the flooding that led to loss of lives and properties, as well as displacement of people in Nigeria. It was during the period that many Nigerians acknowledged that climate change is a serious threat to the country’s existence and has a big effect on food security..
LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
18. The study was somewhat limited by the unavailability of statistical data in particular awareness programmes on the impact of climate change. There was also no data on adaptation and mitigation measures. Similarly, poor record keeping of some government parastatals. However, the author made efforts to circumvent most of these obstacles through having discussions with and interviewing some of the nation’s top environmental and food security experts. The information gathered from experts was complemented by information gathered from secondary sources of information including books, journals, media report, and the internet. What followed was the comparison of the pieces of information from both primary and secondary resources in an effort to achieve all the study objectives. Therefore, the limitations did not overwhelmingly impact the validity of this study.
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