Afghanistan Political Stability and Economic

Afghanistan

Political stability and economic prosperity for Afghanistan are not realistic long-term objectives for Afghanistan. It is rare in Afghan history for political security to exist. In the past several centuries, Afghanistan has lacked long-term political stability (Roe, 2005). It is conceivable that the country could achieve stability in the form of a strong militaristic ruler but the country at present is a patchwork of tribes and warlords. There are intense rivalries between these warlords that will always threaten stability in the absence of a powerful central government. Such instability is endemic in Central Asia and has been for centuries, as evidenced in historical works such as the Baburnama. Today, in order for a central government to have sufficient power to overcome such tribal allegiances, it would need to provide Afghanistan with substantial financial incentive.

The provision of such an incentive is difficult. The land is poor as is access to the world's developed markets. The country has few viable sources of income, of which illicit drugs are the most likely candidates for economic development. However, because of the illegal nature of these products, no central government will be allowed by the international community to support their production and marketing. The replacement of opium poppies as the most economically viable cash crop for Afghanistan would require a substantial drop in global demand for the product, which would suppress prices to the point where poppies could reasonably be replaced with saffron or other valuable crops (Felbab-Brown, 2005).

Without a strong economy, Afghanistan is unlikely to have a strong central government. Government would instead be required to lean on foreign nations for its strength, the way that the old monarchy did, a situation that is inherently unstable. It seems unlikely, given the social structure of the nation and the economic reality that either long-term political stability or economic prosperity is likely without substantial structural changes.

2. The primary impediment to economic growth in Afghanistan at present is the dependence on opium poppy production. The income that poppy production generates for average Afghans is the economic engine in many regions (Felbab-Brown, 2005). Poppy production discourages involvement of farmers in other crops, to the detriment of the nation, which is then forced to import food and other goods.

The problem with poppy production is mainly political. If the global economy is based on specialization of labor, then the role of Afghanistan in a truly free market is to produce opium and heroin. That these products are illegal is a political issue. Were these products not illegal, supply from other parts of the world may increase, lowering prices and causing Afghanis to diversify their economic base somewhat. Alternately, the Afghans could make all of their money on opiate production, and use drug profits to purchase food and consumer goods. In either case, the current political climate regarding the most valuable of Afghanistan's commercial crops is an impediment to economic growth in the nation.

The other key impediment is the lack of political stability (Ibid.). This prevents the country from making the necessary investments in infrastructure that would allow it to diversify its economy. The banking system is non-existent - the only credit available is black market credit for poppy production (Ibid.); as is the legal system (Maloney, 2004). There are many structural problems that prevent economic growth. Again, this is largely a political problem. Greater political stability would allow for the development of the requisite financial and physical infrastructure to help the country move forward.

3. The ongoing state-building in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Balkans shares some similarities. In each case, nations are rising from the ashes of devastating conflict. In each case, these conflicts carry ethnics undertones that have made reconciliation and cooperation among different groups difficult. Foreign involvement in the peacekeeping process has been a factor in each region as well.

There are many key differences between these different nation-building efforts, however.

The conflict in the Balkans was a civil war, and was not the result of invasion by western forces. The involvement of the west has been essentially a post-conflict involvement, such that western forces and influence are not met with the same scorn as they are in Afghanistan and Iraq. Iraq and Afghanistan also differ in a few key ways. Iraq was a largely secular society, whereas Afghanistan is strongly religious. Iraq's history was more stable, despite the war with Iran. Afghanistan, on the other hand, has a long history of war and battling invasions.

Iraq and the Balkans are similar in terms of nation-building in that they both have sources of wealth at their disposal. The Balkans enjoy a European location, with easy access to markets for their goods. Iraq has oil. The Afghans, conversely, have a lucrative product but it is illegal in nature. Also, while the Balkans and Iraq both have politics and conflict predominantly on ethnic lines, Afghanistan's political structure is more complex (Maloney, 2004), based along clan lines such that conflict can arise even within members of the same group.

Overall, the efforts in Iraq have some similarities with the Balkans, but little with Afghanistan. That country's situation is unique among recent post-conflict nation-building efforts.

4. Terrorism tends to gravitate towards regions of instability and poor governmental control (Felbab-Brown, 2005). The power vacuum in many parts of Afghanistan allows for terrorist networks to operate and train. While there are other regions, such as bordering areas of Pakistan and parts of Africa, where such terrorist training can also be conducted, winning the war on terrorism inevitably means establishing political stability and economic prosperity in Afghanistan.

The present situation in Afghanistan, just as with the situation under the Taliban, has resulted in thousands of Afghanis joining terrorist and insurgency groups. There are relatively few such recruits coming from more stable, developed regions.

Furthermore, if such stability were to be achieved in Afghanistan, it would represent evidence of success in the "war on terror." The term, and movement among the world's leading states, essentially began with the overthrow of the Taliban. The first objective of the war on terror was to establish a stable and prosperous Afghanistan. Without this objective met, the war on terror can easily be interpreted as a punitive action against the Islamic world, resulting in more recruits to terrorist organizations. Success in Afghanistan would substantially staunch this image of the war on terror and the flow of new recruits to terrorist organizations.