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Public opinion used to be measured through voting, letter writing, and demonstrating. However, those who write letter and demonstrate generally have views that are more extreme than those of the public (166-168). Thus, the public opinion poll was introduced. Examples of public opinion polling include President Barack Obama's approval rating, which is currently 68%, and the 72% that believe the U.S. will be "better off in four years" (Gallup). Public opinion polls are important because they "keep the public well informed," as well as keeping the public in touch with important shifts in public opinion" ("Are opinion polls useful?").
Using a random sampling method, the public opinion poll uses probability to reflect the views of the public. That is, by using a random selection of the population, the opinions of the entire public can be quite accurately predicted (169). A good poll must include people selected at random, in order to get a representation of the population, as well as an accurate sampling size. Thus, "the size of the sample, as opposed to the size of the population, is the key to accurate estimates" (171). A good poll will also tell its readers the measurement of sampling error, or "the measure of the accuracy of a public opinion...
Other factors, such as timing, are also important in the public opinion poll, as the 1948 Gallup poll's mistaken identification of Dewey as the frontrunner identifies (171). Furthermore, when "respondents are questioned about a topic they are unfamiliar with" or about "sensitive issues," public opinion can be skewed. In addition, a question's wording often impacts how a person will respond (172). Thus, "critics...point out that polling...is subject to the bias of interviewers and those who analyze the data..." ("Are Opinion Polls Useful?). Thus, opinion polls are tools that help people stay informed, but they can also be biased or incorrect.
Works Cited
Faxed Test.
Are Opinion Polls Useful?" American Historical Association. 25 January 2008. http://www.historians.org/projects/GIRoundtable/Polls/Polls5.htm
Gallup. "Obama Starts with 68% Job Approval." Gallup. 24 Jauary 2008. 25 January 2008. http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
Works Cited
Faxed Test.
Are Opinion Polls Useful?" American Historical Association. 25 January 2008. http://www.historians.org/projects/GIRoundtable/Polls/Polls5.htm
Gallup. "Obama Starts with 68% Job Approval." Gallup. 24 Jauary 2008. 25 January 2008. http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
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