Kmt\'s Candidate (and Current Mayor

¶ … KMT's candidate (and current Mayor of Taipei) Ma Ying Jeon holds a 50.40% to 49.60% lead over the TSU's candidate Shu Chin-Chiang. Coverage of the elections in the PRC's state-run media Xinhua has focused on two main themes. The first centers on veiled warnings to both candidates to avoid unnecessarily increasing tensions by injecting inflammatory issues (i.e. Taiwan independence) into the election. Their second theme has focused on condemning the TSU's Shu Chin-Chiang as a "reckless war mongerer" whose election would "irreparably damage the spirit surrounding positive negotiations."

(a) Provide insight as to how you arrived at your conclusion.

Beginning in the 1990's, relations between the PRC and Taiwan improved with a few notable exceptions. & #8230; Despite the tenuous situation regarding the status of Taiwan, the PRC and Taiwan have significantly increased economic and cultural ties as both nations' economies have experienced tremendous growth

(b) Sum up the findings from the matrix and explain how they support your conclusion this is the most likely hypothesis.

Evidence 1-3 showing that tension will be resolved diplomatically

There have been tensions from time to time between Taiwan and PRC but both U.S. And Taiwan strive to ensure cessation of war in order to retain economic profit between both countries.

(c) Explain how your lynchpin evidence for your assessed most likely hypothesis is stronger than the lynchpin evidence for the other hypotheses.

Lynchpin evidence supports scenario circumstances. Lynchpin evidence: Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) issued a statement that negotiations with the PRC were "progressing" and that Taiwan was contemplating lowering their military alert status as a sign of "goodwill.

2. List the second most likely hypothesis:

About Even 45-55% chance

Taiwan's Central News Agency is reporting Taiwan's National Security Bureau (NSB) has uncovered plans by the PRC to increase tensions between the two countries should Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU) be elected. Although the Central News Agency refused to divulge their sources for the report, they insisted the accuracy and reliability of the information was "100% certain." Ma Ying Jeon's (KMT-54.95%) lead over Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-45.05%) has continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace.

(a) Provide insight as to how you arrived at your conclusion.

the TSU is a staunch advocate of independence. The TSU firmly believes Taiwan is already an independent nation and over the last 50 years, has developed their own sense of identity and nationhood. The TSU supports the drafting of a new constitution and the establishing of "state-to-state" relations with the PRC. The TSU candidate for President is the party's Chairman, Shu

(b) Sum up the findings from the matrix and explain how they support your conclusion this is the most likely hypothesis.

Evidence 1-3 showing that tension will not be resolved diplomatically

In fact, Taiwan's Central News Agency is reporting Taiwan's National Security Bureau (NSB) has uncovered plans by the PRC to increase tensions between the two countries should Shu Chin- Chiang (TSU) be elected

(c) Explain how you used disconfirming evidence to conclude this was a less likely hypothesis.

the PRC and Taiwan have significantly increased economic and cultural ties as both nations' economies have experienced tremendous growth. Taiwan would lose economically if they were to militate against the PRC. This they would not be ready to do.

3. Least likely to occur: [enter here and use a "Term of Estimative Probability" (see below) to describe it ]

Unlikely 16-34% chance:

US representatives warned both presidential candidates that under the current circumstances, the U.S. could not guarantee political or let alone military support should a confrontation with the PRC occur. Said one high ranking U.S. official "should Shu claim independence, there is no way the U.S. President will send U.S. forces near Taiwan."

Despite a series of efforts by several members of Congress to oppose the measure, in October 1971 the United Nations adopted Resolution 2758 calling for the PRC to be recognized as the legitimate government of China. In February of 1972, the U.S. And PRC released the Shanghai Communique calling for both countries to work together in order to normalize relations. In the communique, the U.S. agreed to support the "One-China Policy" acknowledging there is only one China (although not necessarily the PRC).

(a) Provide insight as to how you arrived at your conclusion.

In 1978, President Jimmy Carter announced the U.S. was normalizing relations with the PRC and would sever formal relations with Taiwan. In response to President Carter's action, Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act calling for the U.S. To consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means (including boycotts and embargoes) as a threat to the peace and security of the Pacific and of grave concern to the U.S. And made formal provisions for providing Taiwan with weapons "of a defensive nature."