Geopolitical threats and regional instability surrounding Bahrain

Bahrain Intelligence Estimate

Bahrain is nestled in a rather precarious part of the world. Even if things are completely fine within the country's borders, they are nestled in the middle of the Persian Gulf and they are geographically close to a bunch of current or recent hotspots around the world. These hotspots include Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Yemen. Whether it be the death of leaders, the forcible removal of leaders, the Arab Spring in general, genocide, the overall activity (and the reactions to), the ISIS threat and so forth, there is quite a bit going on in a very small section of the world. This is nothing new as Northern Africa and the Middle East has been violent and in a constant state of upheaval for centuries (and one to two millennia in some case). However, the threats and goings-on that do exist have to be assessed (CIA, 2015).

Discussion

One could write a very thick and verbose report about what has gone on in the last generation in the affected area. However, one can also stick to what is happening right now in and around Bahrain. Egypt saw the fairly recent deposing of Mubarak and then Morsi, just after being elected, was removed by the military when he tried to (in the eyes of many) hijack the government and country of Egypt. The long-standing leader of Saudi Arabia has just passed and Yemen just fell in a bloodless coup to the Houthis, a sub-type of the Shia that is pervasive around the Middle East. The starvation and genocide in Sudan has been going on unabated for a while. Oman and United Arab Emirates as well as Qatar are mostly fine and Saudi Arabia is mostly good despite the recent death of their leader King Abdullah. Afghanistan and Iraq has had some violence as of late as the Americans draw down and Pakistan is mostly docile at this point, at least compared to what they usually see. Many countries around the area (including the aforementioned Iraq as well as Syria) have seen the rise of ISIS. They are a very harsh threat as they are stateless and very vicious. They are wreaking much havoc in Syria and Egypt but they are affecting other areas as well. Iran is totalitarian but mostly stable and Israel has been decent despite its history of conflict with the Palestinians (Kingsley, 2015; Vox, 2014; Gasim, 2015).

Final Estimate

As for the current state of affairs in Bahrain, they are vulnerable and subject to overflows of violence from their neighbors. Bahrain themselves is guilty of much of the same oppression and internal violence as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others in that they basically squash dissent and behaviors they view with disdain. However, they are obviously much less noticed than the larger and more prominent countries that do the same thing. When the Arab Spring came about, Bahrain responded with a proverbial hammer and were basically successful in preventing any major changes (Kristof, 2012).

Conclusion