Biggest Terror Group Threat

Homeland Security

Over the last two decades or so, the nastiest and most active terrorist groups really have to be ISIS/ISIL and Al Qaeda. Although the former is much "younger" than the latter, they have certainly made up for lost time given what they are currently doing in the Middle East. Even so, the top question becomes which of those two groups is the most active and deadliest right now. Indeed, a case could be made for both in their own rights. Al Qaeda has had more staying power but ISIS is running roughshod over the Middle East much more so as of late than Al Qaeda has been doing anywhere. While Al Qaeda is certainly still a threat, ISIS is clearly the more clear and present danger right now.

Analysis

If this question were posed a mere ten to fifteen years ago, the answer would be Al Qaeda and it would not even be close. People might think that ISIS is a brand new thing but this is not true. Even if it was only by two years, ISIS existed a full two to three years before the 9/11 attacks in 2001. Indeed, ISIS was formed in 1999, albeit under the name a different name. Another important detail is that ISIS and Al Qaeda were joined together for more than ten years. Only in 2014 did ISIS peel off of Al Qaeda and start going into business for themselves.

Al Qaeda, however, used to be quite formidable on its own. The 2001 terrorist attacks were the result of nearly twenty terrorists being able to take over four planes and they all ended up crashing, albeit only three of them hitting their intended targets. The United States and other Western nation responded with brute force, however, starting in Afghanistan given that the Taliban was in charge there and they were letting Al Qaeda operate with impunity given that the goals and mindsets of the two groups were very similar. Over the time period of the George W. Bush Presidency but only after the 9/11 attacks, a good amount of Al Qaeda's personnel and infrastructure was gutted and destroyed. A few years into Barack Obama's Presidency after Bush departed, Al Qaeda kingpin Osama bin Laden was found and killed in Pakistan (PBS, 2016).

The rather successful war against Al Qaeda is just one reason why ISIS is the bigger threat. ISIS took advantage of the fact that Iraq and Syria's governments are rather weak. Syria is undergoing a brutal civil war and Iraq, which is led by a Shia-dominated government, is being attacked and railed against by the mostly-Sunni ISIS personnel. Even more dangerous is the fact that there has been a huge immigrant wave from Syria and other areas in the Middle East into Europe. The worry is that some of those refugees are ISIS lone wolfs or cells and that this will lead to an eventual evisceration of Europe, or at least a lot of attacks. The only reason the same potential fate is not befalling the United States (at least not yet) is that the Americas are rather far away from the Middle East and North Africa whereas Europe is rather close to both, nestled near both Asia and Africa. In short, ISIS may not be an immediate threat to the United States in terms of a high possibility of attacks. However, that will most certainly change eventually unless ISIS is crippled and beat back like Al Qaeda was. Even if that is done, any ISIS (or Al Qaeda, for that matter) allegiant or sympathizer can make a few bombs or wield an AK-47 against a crowd of people (Yuhas, 2016).