China's rise to global power

China's Rise To Power

Will China's Rise to Power Overthrow American Hegemony?

China's economic rise to power raises the possibility for a major conflict between it and the United States. As recently as six years ago, the hegemony of the United States went unquestioned and the threat of a war or other significant clash between the two was unthinkable. However, as the two superpowers each attempt to expand their influence, it is important to acknowledge the potential for a war between the two and ultimately, the potential for China to overthrow the United States as worldwide economic leader. This paper examines the relationship between the two nations and then attempts to predict the future dynamic between the two, drawing from past historical examples of when a rising nation has challenged or even usurped an existing superpower.

From 2001 until 2004, China and the United States enjoyed a peaceful dynamic; however, in 2005, relations became much stiffer, due to a confluence of factors. These include a fundamental disagreement over the plight of Taiwan, significant distrust from the United States concerning exorbitant military spending by China, as well as an economic fight for control over a limited supply of natural resources (Finn, 2008). Despite these recent developments, however, there are a number of factors that must be examined before reaching the conclusion that a Chinese-American war is impending.

Certainly, there exists substantial data that would suggest that a war will result between the United States and China. For example, in six of seven cases in which a new economic power has challenged an existing one, war has resulted (Qingguo, Rosecrance, 2010). However, it should also be noted that many of these examples occurred centuries ago, and none were especially similar to the dynamic between America and China. For example, many conflicts took place between countries in Europe, including Spain-Holland (16th century), Holland-England (17th century), Britain-France (18th and 19th century), France/Britain-Germany (20th century), Germany-Russia (1914), and Germany-Soviet Union (1941). In each of these cases, the impact of the countries' relative geographic proximity should not be underestimated. Countries like Britain and France, or Holland and England, had significant land to gain from the other and this was a main reason for their conflicts.

The only instance in which a rising power usurped the existing power without war resulting was when the United States overthrew Britain; this example is more analogous to the dynamic between the United States and China since there is less geographical proximity. However, it should also be noted that the United States is significantly more powerful than Britain was and so they should not feel as threatened. However, it would be most useful for the United States to work cooperatively and attempt to contain China's rise through engagement. An attempt to contain China would be ill-advised as it would vastly underestimate the influence that China possesses within the global economy. While it is true that China faces its own challenges regarding integrating within an economic order that has been dominated by Western democracies (namely, significant geographical distance from other economic powers and the fact that many sections of China, including Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Taiwan, and Mongolia are engaged in conflict within the country's own borders), a policy of containment would disregard the vast economic and military resources that China possesses.