Separating scientific fact from conjecture in climate change debate

Climate Change

Global Climate Change: Separating Science from Conjecture

The issue of climate change -- of human caused global warming, to be exact -- has been the subject of much debate among politicians and scientists alike. There is a growing consensus in the scientific community that the world is experiencing a warming trend that has lasted slightly longer than a century. The fact that this nearly coincides with the Industrial Revolution and the use of fossil fuels, which greatly increased the carbon content of the atmosphere, does not necessarily mean there is a causal link between industrialization and the current global warming trend. It is this fact that remains a great matter of debate amongst scientists, policy makers, and the public at large.

Knowing that the world has warmed slightly, it might seem unimportant to question why this warming has occurred. On the contrary, however, it is vital that the underlying causes for this warming trend be explored; if it is indeed the result of human industrial activity and carbon emissions, there could be severe consequences for continued emissions. It might even be possible to reverse the trend by developing methods to remove existing carbon from the atmosphere. On the other hand, undue changes to current fossil-fuel technologies would have extreme economic effects in both the developing and the developed world, severely impacting transportation and shipping and therefore the cost of goods. Many countries -- including the United States -- lack the infrastructure to provide energy and heat to homes without the use of fossil fuels, adding additional costs and political complications to an already contentious issue. This makes the question an essential one.

Methods

In order to determine the amount of scientifically verifiable fact that links the current warming trend to human activity, a search of several databases for recent scientific articles regarding the issue was conducted. EBSCO's Academic Search Complete was initially searched using the terms "climate change;" these results were narrowed by the addition of "fossil fuels," in order to reach articles that dealt specifically with the relationship between the two terms. In the BIOSIS database, the more politically charged term "global warming" was used, which yielded several articles that explored the natural warming and cooling trends of the planet vs. The possible human role in the current warming trend.

Discussion

These results lead to varying conclusions regarding the causes of global warming and the effects it will have on both the environment and the global economy. The modeling studies seem to suggest that the economic impact of transitioning to lower carbon emission in developing countries, though still considerable, is definitely manageable and even advantageous in the long run from cost savings to rural and developing communities (Urban 2009). In addition, the economic ties between carbon emissions and the use of fossil fuels and economic growth that are stressed by many political economists appear to be less direct and influential than has been asserted (Ojekunle et al. 2009). This helps to clear the way for changes to human energy sources, should they be deemed necessary.

The necessity of such changes is still a matter of debate, however. The fact that dramatically warmer temperatures existed much farther from the Equator than previously thought means that the situation is less dire than other studies and scientists have suggested (Newbrey et al. 2009). These temperatures, however, were not caused by the activities and waste outputs of a single species, nor is there evidence that the temperatures believed to have existed seventy-five million years ago can be attributed to a rise as rapid as that which the twentieth century has seen (Newbrey et al. 2009; Swanson et al. 2009). The finding that oceanic variances cannot account for the past century's warming trend is not entirely conclusive in attributing climate change human carbon emissions, but it is one more piece of evidence that leads to this conclusion (Swanson et al. 2009).

Conclusion

Nothing is ever definite in science, and the global warming trend is no exception. While the evidence found in this study shows an unmistakable warming trend that cannot be accounted for by natural variances as currently measured, it cannot conclusively state that human carbon emissions are the cause of the warming. Likewise, though computer models suggest that the economic impact of switching to low-carbon emission technologies will not be as severe as has been suggested, this cannot be known with any certainty, either. Given the strong possibility that global warming is human caused, however, change is still advisable.