Improving Carbon Management to Mitigate

Improving Carbon Management to Mitigate Climate Change

Introduction of global climate change situation

The aim of this green paper is to improve carbon management, helping the transition towards a low- carbon economy in the UK. Although this green paper represents a tentative government report of a proposal without any commitment to action, it is the first step in changing the law to improve carbon management to mitigate climate change. The growing body of evidence concerning the reality of global climate change demands action today (Lindsay 2005; Lynas 2004). The implications of global climate change, even in the relative near-term, are profound. In this regard, Jenkins emphasizes that, "Many people are intensely interested in predicting the likely consequences of global climate change during the next 50 to 100 years. These consequences include many changes in natural environments, as well as potential effects on human health" (2004, 11).

Indeed, some scientists believe the world is a ticking time-bomb and time is running out for the human race (Mank 2005; Hogue 2007). While other researchers caution that things are not as dire as the "Chicken Little" alarmists might believe (Behreandt 2006; Michaels 2004), the fact remains that there is incontrovertible proof from around the globe that the earth has become warmer by about one-half a degree Fahrenheit over the past century or so (Schueneman 2009). For example, Jordan emphasizes that, "The evidence is overwhelming that the Earth's surface is warmer today than it was a century ago. Research by thousands of scientists strongly suggests that the cause is the largely uncontrolled and still increasing release of anthropogenic (human-caused) greenhouse gases. Yet there remain a few scientists who oppose these conclusions" (2005, 24). In its most recent report on global climate change, the U.K.-based Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change stated: "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level" (quoted in Jones 2010 at 2).

Although that may not sound like much, this slight increase in temperature -- together with the continuing emission of greenhouse gases by humanity -- may have set into motion a series of irreversible events that threatens the future of all humankind. For example, the polar ice caps are melting and the permafrost that covers much of Alaska, Canada and Siberia is also melting. The former phenomenon is causing global ocean levels to rise, threatening coastal cities, while the latter may release an incalculable amount of additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere further accelerating the global warming process. As can be readily discerned from Figure 1 below, overall global temperatures have been on the increase for the past century and more.

Figure 1. Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change

Note: The data for the line plot of global annual-mean surface air temperature change for the base period 1951-1980 was derived from the meteorological station network; uncertainty bars (95% confidence limits) indicate the annual and five-year means.

Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 2011 at http://data.giss.nasa. gov/gistemp/graphs/

As can be readily discerned from Figure 2 below, although both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres have experienced higher temperatures over the past century and a half or so, this increase in temperatures has been far more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere where the industrialized nations of United States, China, Japan, Russia, the UK and European Union are located.

Figure 2. Annual Mean Temperature Change for Hemispheres

Note: Annual and five-year running mean temperature changes with the base period 1951-1980 for the northern (red) and southern (blue) hemispheres.

Source: NASA 2011 at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

According to Phil Jones of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia (UEA), these temperature increases have set a number of records in recent years, including the following:

1. The period from 2001 to 2009 (0.43°C above 1961-90 mean) measured 0.19°C warmer than the period from 1991 to 2000 (0.24°C above 1961-90 mean).

2. The warmest complete decade in the series was the 1990s.

3. With a temperature of 0.55°C above the 1961-90 mean, 1998 was the warmest year of the entire series.

4. The past 14 years have been among the 15 warmest years in the series have occurred in the past 14 years (1995-2009).

5. The single year among the last 14 years that was not recorded with the warmest 14 years was 1996, which was replaced in series by the year 1990 (Jones 2010).

Although the earth has experienced cyclical climate changes throughout its multibillion-year history, a growing consensus of authorities agrees that the temperature increases that have been experienced over the past century and a half have been caused by anthropomorphic (e.g., manmade) activities that largely followed the introduction of the Industrial Revolution. In this regard, Jones emphasizes that, "Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" (2010, 3). These manmade changes to global temperature patterns have had broad-based implications. For instance, Jones notes that, "Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns" (Jones 2010, 2-3).

Besides the incontrovertible foregoing evidence, other changes in the physical environment also support the conclusion that the earth is becoming warmer. In this regard, Jenkins notes that, "The worldwide decline of amphibian populations that has been documented in the past 20 years is an early symptom of pervasive effects of global climate change on natural environments" (2004, 54). Taken together, it is reasonable to suggest that global climate change is a harsh reality that confronts all humankind, and the decisions made by policymakers today will have vitally important implications in the coming decades, particularly in countries where climate change has been particularly pronounced such as the UK which is discussed further below.

2.

Background and climate change situation in UK

On the one hand, the trends in climate change that have taken place throughout the UK over the past century and a half or so represent an immediate as well as a long-term threat to the environment (Allen, Seaman & Delascio 2009). On the other hand, though, the UK also stands to benefit in substantive ways from global climate change. In this regard, the UK government reports that, "The global market for low carbon and environmental goods and services is already worth £3 trillion. The UK has led the way in taking the opportunities that this market presents, and by the middle of the next decade over a million people in this country could be employed in the low carbon and green manufacturing sectors" (Miliband, Mandelson & Denham 2009, 2). Moreover, the UK is well situated to contribute to long-term initiatives designed to mitigate carbon emissions domestically as well as around the world. For example, Milband et al. also note that, "Our strong regulatory framework already makes the UK a leading destination for green investment which coupled with a tradition of innovation, world leading universities and a skilled workforce gives us the potential to lead the world as a low carbon economy" (2009, 2).

In order to achieve the mutually beneficial goals of contributing to the solution to global climate change while reaping an economic return on these investments requires a thoughtful approach. In fact, the UK is well placed to embrace these opportunities. For example, according to the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change, during the period between 2008 and 2009, the world's sixth largest Low Carbon and Environmental Goods and Services (LCEGS) sector was in the UK with an annual value of about £112 billion representing a yearly increase of 4.3% versus comparable numbers for the period 2007-2008. The LCEGS sector in the UK is also responsible for employing almost one million workers (about 910,000 people), a current figure that is expected to swell to more than a million employees by 2015 (a low-carbon UK 2001, 2). Likewise, the Department of Energy and Climate Change has also taken steps to encourage organisations of all types and sizes to reduce carbon emissions and recognize the growth opportunities represented by global climate change through (a) regulatory avenues; (b) the establishment of market-based mechanisms, (c) the provision of incentives; and (d) the dissemination of relevant and timely information, advice and support to facilitate the development of low carbon goods and services and promote their adoption throughout the UK (a low-carbon UK 2011).

Given the heavily industrialized nature of the UK economy, there is clearly an inextricable relationship between actions taken to mitigate carbon emissions and economic productivity throughout the country. The picture that quickly emerges from the growing body of evidence concerning climate change is grim, particularly the pace of change that has been experienced over the past three decades as can be seen in Figure 3 below.

Figure 3. Central England Temperature

Note: Blue bars indicates changes in CET annual values during the period 1877 to 2006 relative to the average over the 1961-90 baseline period (about 9.5 "C). Error bars enclose the 95% confidence range and the red line highlights decadal variations.

Source: UK Climate Projections 2011 at http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk / content/view/751/500/

As shown in Figure 3 above, the Central England temperature (CET) has increased by approximately one degree Celsius since 1980; in fact, the year 2006 was the warmest on record (Central England temperature 2010). Some salient trends represented by these historic weather patterns include:

1. Following a period of relative long-term stability for most of the 20th century, CET has increased by about a degree Celsius since the 1980s. This is a more rapid rise than that of the global average land-surface temperature over the same period, and considerably faster than that of the global mean temperature.

2. The annual mean CET of 10.82°C in 2006 was 1.35 ± 0.18°C above the 1961 -- 1990 average, and was the warmest in the 348-year series.

3. The fifteen warmest calendar years in the series are, in order: 2006, 1990/1999, 1949, 2002, 1997, 1995, 1989/2003, 1959/2004, 1733/1834/1921 and 2005. Several of these high ranking years are too long ago to have had any significant contribution from man-made warming. This reflects the large natural variability of climate over a small area such as that of the CET.

4. The years 2006 and 2007 have seen a number of records in the CET monthly series broken.

5. July 2006 was the warmest month since observations began, with a mean temperature of 19.7°C; September 2006 was the warmest September; Autumn 2006 was the warmest Autumn; and April 2007 was the warmest April (Central England temperature 2010, 3).

Besides the calendar-year averages described above, monthly CET data set has also been organised into successive 12-month rolling averages that reveal some other clear trends. Based on the amplified analysis using these data, the year-long period ending in April 2007 was also the warmest such period on record (Central England temperature 2010). In sharp contrast to the meticulous data collection that has taken place in Central England since 1880, there has been no corresponding effort has been made for regions other than Central England to attribute recent trends to specific causes; however, the same general warming patterns that are evident in Figure 3 are also discernible in Figure 4 below, suggesting the global warming process in the UK is not localized to Central England, but rather has become a regionalized problem (Temperature in Scotland & Northern Ireland 2010).

Figure 4. Annual mean temperature averaged over the Scottish Mainland, 1800-2006.

Note: The red line emphasises decadal variations

Source: UK Climate Projections 2011 at http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content / view/753/500/

In response to these trends, the UK government has taken some preliminary steps to help reduce the short- and long-term threats represented by continuing emission of carbon, and these are discussed further below.

3.

Reduction of carbon dioxide emission by climate change bill

The Climate Change Act of 2008 established emission reduction targets for 2020 (reduction of 34% in greenhouse gas emissions) and for 2050 (reduction of at least 80% in greenhouse gas emissions), and introduced five-yearly carbon budgets that are legally enforceable in order to assure those targets are achieved (a low-carbon UK 2011). At present, the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is collaborating with other governmental agencies to facilitate the transition to a low carbon economy through the UK; a concomitant aspect of this legislation was to ensure that the UK benefits from the business and employment opportunities represented by the changes in global climate patterns in recent years (a low-carbon UK 2011).

4.

Planning and policy for reduction carbon dioxide emission

Other recent planning and policy initiatives taken by the UK government to reduce carbon dioxide emissions include the Carbon Reduction Commitment Energy Efficiency Scheme (CRC). The scheme is a mandatory carbon emissions reporting and pricing scheme that affects all UK organisations that use more than 6,000 MWh of electricity (equivalent to an annual electricity bill of about £500,000) a year (Carbon Reduction Commitment Energy Efficiency Scheme Elements 2011). The CRC became effective in April 2010 and is designed to reduce UK carbon emissions in substantive ways that are not addressed by other legislation (CRC Scheme Elements 2011). The main goal of the scheme is to reduce emissions in the commercial sectors in the UK that are not energy intensive as a way of augmenting the Climate Change Agreements as well as the EU Emissions Trading Scheme because these target energy-intensive organisations primarily (CRC Scheme Elements 2011). The CRC scheme consists of the three primary elements as described in Table 1 below:

Table 1

Carbon Reduction Commitment Energy Efficiency Scheme Elements

CRC Element

Description

Emissions reporting requirement

Participants in the CRC will be required to measure and report their carbon emissions each year pursuant to a codified set of formal measurement rules with the first annual report of emissions being due July 2011.

A new carbon price

Beginning in 2012, participants in the scheme will purchase allowances from the UK Government on an annual basis that are sufficient to address their emissions for the previous year. In other words, participants that reduce their emissions can reduce their corresponding costs under the CRC.

There are two important changes about buying allowances that the Government announced in October 2010:

(a) the money raised from the sale of allowances will be retained by the Government rather than recycled back to CRC participants.

(b) the first sale of allowances to cover emissions in fiscal year 2011/12 will be in 2012 rather than 2011.

The price of allowances has not yet been determined following the changes announced in October 2010; however, the intent prior to that announcement was to sell allowances at a fixed price of £12 per tonne CO2 through fiscal year 2012/13, with a floating market price thereafter.

Ranking of participants

A publicly available CRC performance league table will show how each participant is performing compared to others in the scheme. If an organisation is a good carbon performer, the league table will help give a significant boost to its organisation's reputation, demonstrating its success in cutting emissions; however, because of the changes announced in October 2010, there is likely to be no direct financial benefit under the CRC from an improved position in the league table.

An organisation's league table position each year will be determined by performance in three metrics:

* Early action metric: 50% of this score is based on what percentage of an organisation's electricity and gas supplies is covered by voluntary automatic meter readings (AMR) in the year to 31 March 2011. The other half is based on the proportion of the CRC emissions certified under the Carbon Trust Standard or an equivalent scheme.

* Absolute metric: The percentage change in an organisation's emissions, compared to the average of the previous five years (or number of years available until 2014/15).

* Growth metric: the percentage change in emissions per unit turnover, compared to the average of the previous five years (or number of years available until 2014/15).

The weighting of these three metrics will change over time. In the first year, early action will count for 100% of your organisation's league table score. Over the first few years of the scheme, the early action metric will gradually fade in importance until the absolute and growth metrics receive 75% and 25% weightings respectively in 2014/15 and thereafter.

Source: Carbon Reduction Commitment Energy Efficiency Scheme Elements, UK Carbon Trust 2011, 4-5

Even though the CRC scheme is targeted at non-intensive energy sectors, the aggregate amount of carbon mitigation that is involved among these entities alone is substantial. For instance, the CRC reports that, "The sectors targeted by the Carbon Reduction Commitment scheme are responsible for more than 10 per cent of current UK carbon dioxide emissions; the Carbon Reduction Commitment scheme seeks to reduce the amount of carbon emissions from these targeted organisations by a minimum of 4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually by 2020" (CRC 2011, 3).

5.

Change proposed

History has shown time and again that people frequently fail to take action until they receive a life-threatening wake-up call, and the threat represented by global climate change is certainly no exception. For instance, according to Sutton, "People do not prepare for events that can be envisioned for the future but may not hold immediate risk. [There are] a number of chronic social obstacles to disaster mitigation and preparation including cost, diminished perception of risk, uncertainty, and unfounded assumptions of far-off recurrence (2009, 1115). Given the clear and present danger represented by global climate change, it is time for a call to action on the part of all stakeholders, which of course means everyone in the UK, that will require a "what's in it for me" analysis. This critically vital goal can be achieved in part through the initiatives described further below.

6.

Increase awareness.

This green paper proposes a series of community awareness initiatives that are designed to inform the general public concerning the imminent threats represented by global climate change as well as the business opportunities these changes represent for the United Kingdom. These initiatives will initially include the following components, to be augmented as necessary over time:

A. Taxation

B. Re-construction building

C. Education

D. Rewarding

These foregoing initiatives are also congruent with the UK government's current policy agenda concerning mitigating carbon emissions. For example, some of the ongoing efforts sponsored by the UK government pursuant to "Building Britain's Future: New Industry, New Jobs," include the following:

A. Supporting innovation and demonstration in priority industries such as carbon capture and storage and bringing research through to the market;

B. Creating the infrastructure, incentives and support required to develop a new, more systemic approach to saving energy across the economy: in businesses, homes, schools, hospitals and other public buildings;

C. Supporting skills development in those low carbon industries, occupations and technologies that will drive economic growth and enable the UK to come through stronger, as set out in Building Britain's Future: New Industry, New Jobs; and,

D. Targeted interventions in priority low carbon industries, through a new £405 million Low Carbon Investment Fund (LCIF) that will enable UK businesses to compete globally (Miliband et al. 2009, 9).

These initiatives would serve the dual purpose of promoting public awareness concerning the need to reduce anthropomorphic-based greenhouse gas emissions at the individual and business level while simultaneously bringing the nation's resources to bear on developing an industry and infrastructure that can contribute to the solution of these problems.

7.

Funding

To date, a substantial amount of funding has already been made available by the UK government to promote the foregoing initiatives, including:

A. £100 million of new funding for loans for small and medium companies to invest in energy efficiency;

B. £65 million of new investment in schools, hospitals and other public buildings to improve their energy efficiency;

C. £100 million of new investment in measures to reduce the fuel bills faced by vulnerable people in social housing; and D. £10 million in waste processing (Miliband et al. 2009, 11).

Other programmes that have been launched in recent years to mitigate the carbon footprint generated by the UK's electricity grid include the following:

A. A £250 million scheme to deliver a green motoring transformation for consumer incentives and infrastructure to support the take-up of electric vehicles. The majority of this will be used to create a scheme to reduce the price of electric and plug-in hybrid cars by around £2000-£5000.

B. The UK government is also providing access to seed money worth up to £20 million to those consortia of cities and companies committed to establishing themselves at the heart of the low carbon vehicle market in the UK.

C. A £2.3 billion package of support for the automotive sector in the downturn, which includes support for the development of green technologies to reduce carbon.

D. Scaling up of the Technology Strategy Board's ultra-low carbon vehicle demonstration competition, more than doubling the planned 100 vehicles.

E. Showing public sector leadership in the procurement decision to help demonstrate the potential of electric and low carbon vehicles, for example through the Department of Transportation's £20 million Low Carbon Vehicle Procurement Programme, which currently focuses on vans Miliband et al. 2009, 34).

There are some other educational tools that are readily available that can be used to augment these more expensive initiatives. For instance, DECC provides a number of timely and relevant publications concerning the importance of carbon mitigation in the UK and what consumers can do to help; these publications are all available from the UK Low Carbon Transition Plan page as described in Table 2 below:

Table 2

Free Public Awareness Campaign Materials from the UK Government

Resource

Description

The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan

The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan establishes the manner in which the UK will achieve the 34% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by the year 2020. UK emissions of the aggregate of six greenhouse gases addressed by the Kyoto Protocol were 22.0 per cent lower in 2008 compared to the base year, a reduction from the equivalent of 779.9 to 608.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. The Plan demonstrates how reductions in the power sector and heavy industry; transport; homes and communities; workplaces and jobs; and farming, land and waste sectors could achieve the established carbon budgets for 2022. The Plan is intended to be the overall planning framework for this carbon mitigation effort and various other publications besides this one have been issued that contain additional details in support of this overarching goal.