This paper contains three different analyses of the same intelligence document. The first level is one of basic intelligence, or basic facts and figures. The second level is current intelligence, or an analysis of current events and their projected future outcomes. The final level is estimated intelligence, which speculates upon likely future areas of development, concern, and need.
¶ … Intelligences
Intelligence
Intelligence document review
Document review:
Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994. (1994). CIA. Retrieved:
http://www.foia.cia.gov/docs/DOC_0000649217/DOC_0000649217.pdf
Basic intelligence
"Basic intelligence concentrates mainly on descriptions, with a secondary focus on explanation and evaluation" (Major 1994: 7). The document "Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994" published by the CIA contains a review of different crises which occurred during the years 1993-1994. It contains basic intelligence in the form of facts and figures about countries around the world in what could be considered 'hot spots' of regional discord or which have been affected by serious, dramatic natural disasters. The document provides an overview of is purpose in its introduction, and then delves into various regional conflicts, including civil wars and natural events like droughts and floods. It identifies sources of humanitarian relief, such as the European Community and the UN and profiles their resources (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA: 11).
The document provides specific regional profiles of at-risk countries with high degrees of need, including the entire sub-Saharan African continent (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA: 6-7). There are some signs of hope as noted in one subtitle: "Southern Africa: Drought ends, but peace elusive" (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA: 9). Regarding the situation in Eastern Europe, Bosnia's state is regarded as dire, given the ongoing war and lack of provisions for the Bosnia people. Warfare continues in Afghanistan and Sri Lanka and the ability of outsiders to deliver relief has become compromised (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA: 9; 13). In the Middle East, there are concerns about the survival of the Kurds, given Iraq's embargo of their region to outside sources of aid (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA: 12).
These are only a few examples of the country-by-country nature of the report. The report is highly detailed and concludes with maps which highlight regional needs and emergencies, and a nation-by-nation chart that expounds upon the specifics of different crises.
Current intelligence
In contrast to basic intelligence, current intelligence focuses on "ongoing, dynamic events. As such, its primary focus must be to explain current events as they unfold, interpreting their meaning for an impatient audience" (Major 1994:7). It also seeks to predict the future. Current intelligence "tries to describe events and to predict their possible outcomes, usually by means of an analyst's comment" (Major 1994:7). The main purpose of the report is primarily to fulfill this function of intelligence. It is designed to identify which areas are recovering from man-made or natural disasters and which need additional assistance.
For example, although environmental conditions may have improved in Africa, the political situation is rapidly deteriorating and thus more aid is necessary. In Eastern Europe as well, there continues to be a need for a combination of outside mediation and aid because of sustained ethnic conflicts. Although humanitarian organizations have been able to ameliorate some of these conditions, the introduction notes that bureaucratic impediments have resulted in an inability for the UN to fulfill its mission effectively (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA: 1)
The report notes that UN relief workers have also been the target of violence, and the UN must balance the need to care for people with its duty to protect its workers (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA: 3-4). While the European Union and the United States have been a source of aid to beleaguered regions, it is feared that scarcer resources combined with burgeoning demand may be too much for these nations to adequately address all areas of need, and prioritization will be required (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA:5). It concludes with a reminder that America will still be asked to take a leading role to solve regional conflicts and provide much-needed assistance.
Estimative intelligence
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