CIA analysis of global humanitarian emergencies, 1993-1994

¶ … Intelligences

Intelligence

Intelligence document review

Document review:

Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994. (1994). CIA. Retrieved:

http://www.foia.cia.gov/docs/DOC_0000649217/DOC_0000649217.pdf

Basic intelligence

"Basic intelligence concentrates mainly on descriptions, with a secondary focus on explanation and evaluation" (Major 1994: 7). The document "Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994" published by the CIA contains a review of different crises which occurred during the years 1993-1994. It contains basic intelligence in the form of facts and figures about countries around the world in what could be considered 'hot spots' of regional discord or which have been affected by serious, dramatic natural disasters. The document provides an overview of is purpose in its introduction, and then delves into various regional conflicts, including civil wars and natural events like droughts and floods. It identifies sources of humanitarian relief, such as the European Community and the UN and profiles their resources (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA: 11).

The document provides specific regional profiles of at-risk countries with high degrees of need, including the entire sub-Saharan African continent (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA: 6-7). There are some signs of hope as noted in one subtitle: "Southern Africa: Drought ends, but peace elusive" (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA: 9). Regarding the situation in Eastern Europe, Bosnia's state is regarded as dire, given the ongoing war and lack of provisions for the Bosnia people. Warfare continues in Afghanistan and Sri Lanka and the ability of outsiders to deliver relief has become compromised (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA: 9; 13). In the Middle East, there are concerns about the survival of the Kurds, given Iraq's embargo of their region to outside sources of aid (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA: 12).

These are only a few examples of the country-by-country nature of the report. The report is highly detailed and concludes with maps which highlight regional needs and emergencies, and a nation-by-nation chart that expounds upon the specifics of different crises.

Estimative intelligence

Estimative intelligence relates to a projection of future demands. The report contains numerous projections of likely future aide needs. Estimative intelligence "deals with events or subjects that have not yet happened. Its concentration, then, must necessarily be predictive" (Major 1994: 8). For example, in the Middle East it is determined that Iraq is the nation which will be most in need of humanitarian assistance not related to a natural disaster because of the oppression of the Kurdish people. The authors of the report cannot know this for certain, but based upon the current regional conflicts in the region, this seems to be the area of greatest concern. Likewise, in East Asia, it projects that there will be some inevitable natural disasters which will occur and will demand humanitarian relief. There is no way that the author of the report can predict the weather with unswerving accuracy; however, he or she can speculate that given past years and likely climate patterns, some event which will displace members of the region. Thus, this should be planned for in terms of projected aid needs for international organizations like the UN (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA: 5).

As the document reviews the region's most needy countries on a case by case basis, it concludes with a projection of the nations' different needs in the future. The most ominous projection relates to Bosnia, which was then still embroiled in a civil war. "If war continues…the impact of continuing conflict will be more devastating than anything we have seen thus far" (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA:10-11). While the previous winter was relatively mild, a more typically harsh winter will cause aid needs to spike dramatically. Food constituted 80% of aid the previous year and all was consumed (Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1993-1994, CIA: 10-11).