Extinction Risk and the Future

¶ … Extinction Risk and the Future Battlegrounds of Mammal Conservation.

Cardillo M, Mace GM, Gittleman JL, and Purvis a. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103 (11); 2006: 4152-4161.

The research involved testing a specific hypothesis through predictive modeling techniques in conjunction with existing factual knowledge. That hypothesis was that current perceptions about which species are in the greatest danger of extinction are somewhat inaccurate. More particularly, the identification of endangered or threatened species is largely based on the degree to which those species have already suffered and begun to exhibit substantially declining numbers.

However, the research actually demonstrated that this approach to identifying endangered species is too exclusive because it does not account for any species that have not already been adversely affected by the principal causes of species endangerment (namely, human encroachment). Instead, conservation perspectives and conservation efforts should include those species that have not yet been threatened only because their natural habitats have not yet been harmed by human activity. Some of those species are especially vulnerable to disturbances in their habitat and are just as likely to be threatened once human activity affects them.

Relevance to Conservation Objectives

The principal relevance of the study is that it demonstrates that current beliefs about which mammalian species are at risk of extinction in the near future are inaccurate. In addition to those currently identified as being at greatest risk, there are other species that are equally at risk of extinction within the same time frame but they are still unrecognized and not considered in conservation philosophy and plans. To the extent conservation objectives relate to improving the survivability of threatened species, the study is especially important because it provides a better means of identifying all of those species that should receive protection and research into their preservation.

Front-line Application

The most obvious front-line application of this study is in the conceptualization of the relative needs of the respective species in connection with human efforts to prevent extinction, especially extinction that is directly attributable to human activity. The traditional approach to species conservation emphasizes the data establishing declining populations. That approach ignores species that are equally at risk by virtue of human activity. Therefore, continued reliance on that approach to defining acceptable human activity in sensitive habitats and to allocating conservation attention and resources does not adequately protect species that may be tremendously vulnerable to extinction within a relatively short period of habitat invasion by human activity.

Relevance to Course Issues