Overpopulation and Instability: Drawing Connections

Overpopulation and Instability: Drawing Connections and Conclusions

The link between overpopulation and political and governmental instability can be proven though multiple case studies. For the past half century, many political scientists have drawn a connection between a nation's ability to control the size of their population and the resources it needs in order to survive. Through an exploration of the causes of political instability, it is possible to clarify this link, and to show that in order for a nation to remain stable and successful politically and otherwise, it needs to be able to control its population growth. There are quite a few areas in the world right now that are primed for political crisis, given the fact that overpopulation crises and resource struggles will likely emerge in the near future. Many political scientists disagree that population has anything to do with political or even regional stability, but it is quite easy to prove otherwise. Certainly there are some examples where instability has created fertile grounds for overpopulation, but these examples are often cherry-picked to help support a one-sided argument.

The notion that all countries around the world function outside of the issue of resource depletion relative to overpopulation is false. There are strong connections between a country's available resources, its position in the world political spectrum, the power that the country has to influence other countries in the region, and that country's population control efforts. The implications for out of control population growth, or lack of growth are quite dire, as evidenced by the out of control populations of Somalia in contrast to the limited population growth of many European nations. The viewpoint that many political scientists and economists take relative to a positive correlation between overpopulation and political instability makes sense in many ways. Since this correlation can been seen, it is imperative that population control take place in order to limit the possibility of widespread resource depletion and related conflict.

Background

The Chinese model of population control goes back many decades. The government realized that the country's population was beginning to spiral out of control and it created many incentives for parents to have only one child. As the Chinese economy grew and began to become modernized around the 1950's and 1960's, the issue of overpopulation was brought to the foreground as the nation strained to develop technologically (Zhao, 1986, pp. 20). A country cannot effectively modernize itself when its workforce is made up of unskilled laborers and farmers. If this population segment of China were allowed to grow unchecked, there could have perhaps even been a political coup brought on by the dwindling economic resources of the nation, eventually created by out of control population growth. The Communists in China smartly realized that population control was necessary to both modernize the country as well as keep themselves in power. The scenario in China was very similar to that of Europe's only one hundred years prior.

As Western European nations were beginning to modernize economically and politically in the 18th and 19th centuries, there was an internal push for skilled labor (Zhao, 1986, pp. 24). That is to say that more and more people who were once producing agricultural and sustenance goods were going to school to learn a skill or trade. This forced more rural households to engage in nonagricultural activities and helped to create more complex forms of economic and industrial organization, paving the way for better political relations with neighboring countries as well as increased importation of goods and ideas. Once economic modernization took place, political modernization followed. A democratic political model was adopted in these nations and the concern for overpopulation began to be dealt with in a more direct fashion. Parents no longer needed a small army of children to help meet labor demands on the farm or at home. The French were so adept at stressing the importance of population control in relation to depletion of critical resources that the French population as a whole is aging, and has had a negative growth rate for some time now (Zhao, 1986, pp. 29). This slowing of population growth rate is a pattern in many democracies around the world, as the inverse is true of many undeveloped, turmoil stricken nations around the globe.

The connection between overpopulation and political instability is no clearer than in nations such as Somalia and other sub-Saharan African nations. Their unemployment and crime rates are sky high (Osborne, 2002, pp. 3) and the power vacuums that are created by the political and economic infighting are outwardly apparent. These countries have no official population control programs or framework, and the countries are unable to modernize both politically and economically due to the fact that they have not been able to develop as rapidly or successfully as other nations. Certainly outside factors have come into play for many of these countries, but the idea that Somalia, a failed state, and a country with extremely limited resources, has not been adversely affected by the lack of population planning and control is absolutely absurd.

Nearly 500,000 people face starvation on a daily basis in Somalia, a country with very few professionals and a very underdeveloped economy (Osborne, 2002, pp. 16). The country has been plagued by almost constant civil war and political disputes over the past few decades, much of which is caused by a booming population and lack of resources leading to internal strife and struggle. If the country were allowed to develop economically and politically, it may be able to compensate for its lack of raw materials and goods by offering skilled labor and technologies to other more developed economies (Osborne, 2002, pp. 18). India has been slowly modernizing its economy in the midst of one of the largest per country population in the world. It has used its labor resources as a springboard for economic growth and diversification, and serves as a model for countries like Somalia, where population growth is out of control, but a largely untapped labor pool exists. Overpopulation has also put Somalia in harms way politically, and until this problem can be addressed, the country will continue to be a failed state in desperate need of outside aid and resources.

The volatility of places like Somalia reflects this dire need for outside aid and foreign resources. Failed states are breeding grounds for terrorist forces and other negative political and economic influences. The fact that Somalia is in such a state of despair not only adversely affects the Somali people directly, but also every other nation outside of its borders. Somali pirates hijack ships out of economic desperation, affecting the worldwide flow of goods and resources between developed nations. This is but one example for the need to develop countries like Somalia, and come up with solutions to its unemployment and social disrepair through modernized economic development and population control. Overpopulation is both a product and cause of political, economic, and educational stability. There are no perfect examples, but the facts and logic used to justify this idea are quite convincing. Every industrialized nation in the world has a stake in making sure that regional and state instability is minimized for security and humanitarian reasons.

Position 1 Analysis: Viewpoint #1: Overpopulation and Instability are Directly Linked

The countries that are the least politically stable are those with the highest population growth rates. A direct correlation can be made between political instability and unchecked population growth, like the example of Somalia that was previously used. In Mancur's 1963 article entitled, "Rapid Growth as a Destabilizing Force," the argument about population growth and overpopulation as a cause of political destabilization is reinforced. He argues that the means of political destabilization that occurred in countries such as Burma and Vietnam was through overpopulation and lack of complex government control. The populations of these nations were allowed to grow unchecked, and in an era when centralized government was having a hard time keeping up with the large number of dissenting voices coming from the unskilled laborers, political instability resulted (Olson Jr., 1963, pp. 536). The political elite in these countries had turned the economic engine against the masses in an effort to control the economy and human capital. But the human capital, in the form of unskilled and agricultural laborers was growing at a rate that outstripped the elite's ability to contain it. Eventually, the working masses grew in number to the point where a coup or revolution could be carried out in favor of the laborers. This occurred in Vietnam in the 1960's and 1970's and before that in Burma with the rise of the worker's rights movement and the communist movements that took hold there during that time.

While the link between political instability and population growth cannot always be directly proven through case study, it is very hard to show the contrary, at least statistically. In "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regression" (Levin, and Renelt, 1992), the authors show that there are statistical links between the population growth rate of a country and the country's political and economic stability. In a study of 50 failed states and political structures, the authors found that in nearly every case (47 of the 50) there was a direct link between out of control population growth and the depletion of specific resources that allow both the country's government and economy the means to create a stable society (Levin, and Renelt, 1992, pp. 954). Overpopulation was but one of a set of variables that often lead to political instability.

Countries like India had to evolve economically in order to survive politically. If the population of India were to grow without sufficient educational and political structure to help guide the development of a more complex economy, the masses of unskilled workers and unemployed people would overrun the nation's political system in an effort to secure the vast amounts of capital and resources necessary to sustain the overpopulated state (Shrivastave, 1992, pp. 2035). Without a doubt, the depletion of resources through overpopulation coupled with a lack of economic complexity and robustness play a large role in the instability of a nation or region.

For those political scientists and scholars that ascribe to this viewpoint, the future is quite bleak if the industrialized nations as a whole do not successfully combat overpopulation. The logical implication of widespread overpopulation and thusly political and economic instability is that the world will have a hard time adjusting to more and more growth. Surely there will be a larger resource pool relative to human capital, but the resources required to sustain such a population will likely not be sufficient. The argument that technological advancements will help to save the world from resource struggles and wars only goes so far. Certainly there is a critical mass or tipping point where the world population would exceed the raw resources required to sustain it (Schwartzman, 2008, pp. 157). At this point, according to scholars who share the viewpoint that overpopulation and political instability are directly related, the planet would likely fall into an economic depression, and the largest humanitarian and social crisis that has ever been witnessed will occur. This will likely lead to the deaths and mistreatment of billions of people worldwide, as oppressive governments and factions would swoop in to assume power in the resulting vacuum.

Position 2 Analysis: Viewpoint #2: Overpopulation Does Not Directly Create Instability

According to researcher and economist Robert J. Barro, there exists an indirect positive link between positive population growth and political stability. He argues that the countries with the highest growth rates in GDP have historically been those with the largest population growth and therefore largest pools of human labor capital (Barro, 1991, pp. 120). He also argues that countries with high birth rates also tend to have higher rates of infant mortality and lower fertility rates (Barro, 1991, pp. 119). When these arguments are combined they paint a very different picture of the relationship between political stability and population growth. The indirect occurrence of GDP growth through population growth is a key argument against providing foreign aid and direction to countries with high population growth rates like Somalia or even India. In India's case, the growth rate has largely gone unchecked for decades yet the country's GDP growth has been steadily outpacing the industrialized western nations for the same amount of time. The connection between political instability and population growth is non-existent according to Barro, and can be attributed to other factors such as the country's existing political environment or perhaps even colonial pressures that once existed inside their borders (Barro, 1991, pp. 120). A person arguing in favor of the viewpoint that overpopulation is not a cause of political instability would likely use India's recent economic success as proof that a huge population is not necessarily indicative of political or economic strife.

In examining countries like Argentina and Japan, the authors of the 1996 article entitled, "Political Instability and Economic Growth" (Alesina; Ozler; Roubini; and Swagel, 1996, pp. 191.) make the connection between economic growth rates and political stability. Since it is nearly impossible to have high economic growth rates without first having political stability, from which population growth is strictly dealt with, the connection between these seemingly unrelated factors is clearly drawn. Argentina, which once had one of the highest per-capita income rates in the world, fell into one political struggle after another, and has since fallen far from the top of list of highest per-capita and highest GDP producers in the world. Conversely, Japan, which was one of the poorest nations in 1960, has enjoyed more political stability than Argentina, and has since experienced one of the fastest growth rates of any notion on the planet (Alesina; Ozler; Roubini; and Swagel, 1996, pp. 194). A connection in population growth can be made as well in these two cases.

Argentina's population growth has run out of control since the 1960's, in the midst of multiple coups and government overthrows. Japan's population has stabilized and the country has recently experienced negative population growth rates (Alesina; Ozler; Roubini; and Swagel, 1996, pp. 199). Here too is evidence that population growth is related to political instability, and not the other way around. Poor economic growth is also often caused by political instability, but potential economic growth is highest in countries with large populations that can be put to work producing goods and services that are the engines of economic and GDP growth. The picture being painted is a catch-22. Countries need relatively large population growth and political stability to become economically successful, but countries that already suffer from lack of political instability seemingly all have unchecked population growth in the first place, suggesting no direct link between population growth and political instability. Instead, there likely is a link between economic growth and stability and political stability.

To further prove the point that the link between overpopulation and political instability is a myth, it is quite useful to examine evidence from Jim Peron's studies in overpopulation and failed states. Peron's book, Exploding Population Myths (2006) argues that overpopulation is not the problem that leads to a failed state or to political instability. He feels that the state itself leads to the overpopulation problem, by means of corrupt or imperfect practices (Peron, 2006). Mr. Peron is certainly arguing from the side of limited government, but the idea that the overpopulation comes from a failed state is argued as false in his book. This argument posits that the institution itself is failing the population, and not the other way around. Depending on which country is used to lend credence to this theory, there are numerous reasons why the failed state comes before overpopulation. Mr. Peron uses China as an example, showing that overpopulation does not necessarily lead to a failed state. The Chinese have successfully learned to deal with over population through the use of a forceful government and methods of limiting parents to one child. The argument that famine is a product of overpopulation is overturned by Peron's book (2006) as well, as he argues that as populations increase, technology advances more rapidly, and the populations are able to cope with less space to grow their food stuffs. It is through the development of technology that famine via overpopulation, as it is traditionally defined, can be overcome. Certainly there are famines going on currently, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, but the world's ability to produce food and energy resources is being boosted by technological advances.

According to those who side with this viewpoint, the future is not as bleak as some scholars and political scientists would want people to believe. The pace of technological development would keep up with rising demand for resources and the world would begin to understand that political instability is not a product of overpopulation, instead being caused by big, worldwide government intervention, like the UN efforts to provide resources and aid to needy nations and regions. These people want to believe that there is a concerted effort by mainstream scholars and media to blow the overpopulation problem out of proportion. The future, according to these people, is much rosier and hopeful than previously thought, relative to overpopulation and political instability in particular regions.

Synthesis and Implications

The argument that political instability comes directly from overpopulation is not completely accurate. Certainly the least industrialized countries have the least complex economies and are therefore more prone to political instability via a lack of complex representative government. But the direct connection between these two factors remains to be seen. In the case of Somalia, a nation that has been a dysfunctional failed state for decades, the unchecked population growth is certainly impeding economic and political development and is a product of a decentralized political and educational structure, but the political strife the country has experienced has not been directly linked to issues with overpopulation. The overpopulation is a symptom of other failed political and educational organs, and not the root cause of the instability in the first place. This does not mean however that overpopulation does no exacerbate the potential for political instability. Any time there is a large group of people who are unemployed or unhappy with their own condition, there will also exist political and social turmoil (Schmuck and Shultz, 2002). This turmoil is often the catalyst for social upheaval and political instability, and is easily diluted through counter-overpopulation efforts.