Cuba's political economy and post-Castro future prospects

Cuba's Future After Fidel Castro

There are many schools of thought when considering the future of Cuba without its leader Fidel Castro. Many think that Cuba is on the cusp of greatness while others warn of coming doom. It can be difficult envisioning the true Cuba from an Americanized point-of-view. Many Americans cannot understand a socialist framework where everyone is treated equal because America is the land of unique opportunity and individualism. It can be said that in order to examine and predict Cuba's future without Castro, one must first look at Cuba's past and present. By looking at the Revolution of 1959 and what Cuba's holds for its people today, this paper will explore many "what if" scenarios. It is simple to conclude that a Cuba without Castro influences the status of the power authority directly. It seems that Cuba's political health has a direct relationship with the state of the economy and ability for its growth. Cuba's relationships with other countries are unpredictable and at times dependent in nature. The island's close proximity to the United States could very well in the future turn advantageous but in the past has proven unpredictable and static due to both countries current political views. It is difficult to say if this relationship will improve over time with or without Castro's leadership. In many ways his leadership has created a society very closed off from the western world. It has only been recently that Americans have seen a glimpse of Cuban culture and that glimpse has many opinions. According to Aviva Chomsky's The Cuba Reader, "Cuba is often perceived in starkly black and white terms" (par. 2) or flat and simple, devoid of passion. Does the regime set the standard of how outsiders view Cuba? Other perceptions of Cuban culture also eluded to in The Cuba Reader and other works cited paint a different portrait that of lush and vibrant expression. One thing remains clear is that a Cuba with or without Castro's leadership and legacy, is a Cuba slowly changing due to outside influence and its own need for cultural expression. The future of Cuba remains unpredictable, as does its economy, however, there is hope for possibility. Works cited in this paper support that Cuba is open to change over time.

Old Cuba and Monoculture

Marifeli Perez-Stable opens her book The Cuban Revolution by commenting "six factors interacted to render Cuba susceptible to radical revolution" (7). These six factors were:

mediated sovereignty, sugar-centered development, uneven modernization, the crisis of political authority, the weakness of the clases economicas (economic classes), and the relative strength of the clases populares (popular sectors). (Perez-Stable 7)

Pre-revolutionary Cuba or Old Cuba is a culture created out of sugar production. When one product exists in a trade market and economic growth is based on the success of that product; this is called monoculture. It is this monoculture that "constituted the structural context that allowed social revolution to happen" (Perez-Stable 7). The Old Cuba political machine was weak because the sugar industry had tried to please its number one buyer, the United States government. It failed to please its own people on the domestic level (Perez-Stable 7). Cuba's dependence upon the United States market and its need for sugar continued to fuel the fire toward social change and this change did not happen overnight. The 1940 Constitution did not incorporate many changes people were interested in but only "embodied a social compromise protecting private property, sanctioning an interventionist state, endorsing agrarian reform, and promoting a host of social rights" (Perez-Stable 7). In other words, this document protected the business of sugaring growing. After failing to consolidate new social ideas and years of poor leadership by the 1950's, the political authority was in crisis. By this time, the sugar industry as Old Cuba's only economy was also exhausted. The sugar industry could no longer promote economic growth or create diversification of products with one strong market of demand. At this time, it could be argued that Cuba could have made the transition from pure dependence to a new form of dependent capitalism. However, what Perez-Stable phrases as "tropical dependent development" (8) never took off for Cuba. As a result, Cuba's future held in the balance in need of dynamic leadership.

The Cuban Revolution

In 1959, Fidel Castro and his movement "enjoyed overwhelming popular support" (Perez-Stable 7). The Cuban people had never idolized someone like him or held anyone so beloved before. They truly believed in his extraordinary leadership and vision. In many ways, he was the perfect everyman and had an ability to relate to all Cubans on many levels. He pleased the people by delivering old promises of social change and was able to placate Old Cuba's military unlike leaders before him. However, many new ideals brought to fruition during this time did not agree with the United States or its foreign policies toward the market. The United States wanted to keep Cuba dependent on the relationship. The Cuban Revolution and leadership "focused on three crucial elements in consolidating its rule: developing the economy, seeking new international allies, and constituting a new political authority" (Perez-Stable 10). Out of this grew a new conciencia or consciousness-based greatly on the well being of the collective people as being crucial to economic success and strengthening Anti-American sentiment.

Cuba took a stand against the United States in national unity welding together social justice and equality for all Cubans. To the United States, this must have been perceived as the greatest of insults. Until this point in time, the United States was the principal market for Cuban sugar exports (Perez-Stable 15). With the Revolution behind Cuba, exporters hoped to find diversification as a result of radical change and that monoculture would be a thing of the past. Cuba was taking a great risk by breaking its bonds with the United States market that could have resulted in national suffering. Castro may have seen two trends developing in the economy, which were not benefiting the people. First, the sugar industry was failing in production quotas for the United States market and this was weakening other emerging industries. Cuba was quickly becoming an urbanized nation due to industrialization and this created a middle class. Secondly, Castro understood the United States wanted to maintain control and influence over its interest in Cuban sugar making it more of a decision-maker than a client (Perez-Stable 17). Cuba made the choice to look elsewhere for support in order to resume economic success.

Cuba's Relationship with the Soviet Union

Perez-Stable writes, "national sovereignty against the United States, however, was possible only because of the support of Soviet Union" (10). These new ties enabled the island nation to survive the United States embargo of 1962 and achieve some economic growth. Cuba benefited from the Soviet Union's military training and supplies. The relationship allowed Cuba to focus on Cuban issues and interests without feeling threatened. At this time, it is thought that the absence of capitalism would enhance economic gains and social justice. The Soviet Union quickly replaced the United States as Cuba's sugar market. As Cuba's sugar culture became king again, its other more urbanized industries diminished due to lack of diverse products and talented workers leaving the country. Had Castro passed away during this time, it is possible the Soviet Union would have stepped in to aid and continue the regime.

The end of the Cold War and fall of Eastern European Communist parties put Cuba at a disadvantage. This event "radically altered the international conditions sustaining the Cuban economy" (Perez-Stable, 86). The United States tightened its embargo hoping this action would cause upheaval for Castro. This new situation limited prospects of socialism and military power for Cuba. The Cuban collective way of life and idealism, the notion of socialism was diminishing worldwide. Cuba had few allies with the Soviet Union gone and felt threatened by the United States. This created a new feeling of hostility in Cuba toward the United States. This hostility only put Cuba on the defensive fueling radical nationalism and stalling any possibility of change (Perez-Stable, 175).

Cuba's New Economy

Gordon Robinson believes Cuba is in the same position Japan and Germany were after World War II. Presently Cuba has the tools for economic reconstruction in the forms of education, motivation and geographical location to be a world leader. A complete reinvention of the country's market is needed for success. It must be open to outsiders. Cuba has a workforce of "high degree of education in the younger generation" (G Robinson, par. 5). Robinson thinks when Cuba reconstructs its economy it "will bring jobs to Cuba that will require highly skilled workers" (par. 5). The sugar industry will remain strong due to foreign investment and use of new technology. Foreign investors will see the potential of Cuba's other natural and human resources such as agriculture and aquaculture of genetic foods. High-tech and pharmaceutical firms will also want to bring their operations to Cuba (G Robinson, par. 6).

Presently it is the tourism industry that is bringing change to Cuba's economy with Castro still in power. "At present, Cuba plans to have 7 million tourists by the year 2010" (G Robinson, par. 6). Already the Cuban government has allowed all their hotels and resorts to be sold to international corporations like Club Med. Donald Trump plans on building his most luxurious hotel there (G Robinson, par. 6). Retirement communities are also being planned in anticipation of aging Baby Boomers from North America and Europe needing a sunny place to live. Such new beginnings will make Cuba's dependence upon western countries a thing of the past. There are signs that the government is relaxing. It has made the Internet available and also provides English language television.

Cultural Change

Eugene Robinson's book Last Dance in Havana paints a vibrant picture of Cuba's culture through artistic expression. Robinson explains that it is through mainly music and dance that Cubans are able to communicate with the outside (par. 6). These cultural expressions are becoming louder as tourism explodes. It is a difficult notion for Americans to comprehend and Cubans are catching on quickly. In a country where nightclubs and dance halls were banned as a result of the Revolution, during his recent visits, Robinson saw blatant displays of individualist art and changing attitudes. Blame it on the relaxed border or tourism but it seems Cuba has a lot to offer the western world.

Rachel Neumann encountered on her visits, a people not afraid to express their discontent. Is this a sign of change? Will Castro's passing only make it easier? Neumann relates that while Cubans have enough, they have become "acutely aware of the differences between their lives and that of their wealthy neighbors to the north" (par. 8). Not many Cubans know what to think about a future without Castro but many think the military will not let much change. It is a slow progression. Tourism and the adopted currency of the dollar helps but these changes also contribute to new ideas. Younger Cubans want to leave and "don't feel like active participants in a Cuba that is supposedly by and for the people" (Neumann, par. 2). Neumann worries Cuba will suffer that same fate as South Africa after Mandela once Castro dies (par. 13). The Cubans she spoke with believe that the grass is greener on the other side. When it comes to social comparison of the United States and Cuba, it is like a double-edged sword. Americans may have the choice of toothpastes but Cubans have the ideals of the Revolution as their right like "equality, literacy, healthcare, housing and education for all" (Neumann, par. 11) and for free while Americans have little control over such necessities.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it is difficult to assess how Cuba will fair when Fidel Castro is gone. Since his rule, its economy, culture and society have been based on the sugar industry creating a static environment. It has been recently with outside influence that Cuba has been able to evolve. Hopefully this trend will continue so the country can establish a free market of exchange.