Predictors of Daily Smoking in Adolescents

¶ … Predictors of the Transition From Experimental to Daily Smoking Among Adolescents in the United States" the authors sought to identify certain factors that influence the transition to daily smoking by American adolescents. They used Problem Behavior Theory (PBT), demographics, and non-theory-related factors as various characteristics that can predict an adolescent's transition from experimental smoking to daily. Problem Related Theory (PBT) is a theoretical framework that is used to identify certain problem behavior prevalent in adolescents which correlate to undesirable social behavior. (Jessor, 1991, p.52) The data came from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (ADD) collected by the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.

Quantitative Design

Because the authors were attempting to determine the different factors involved in the transition from experimental to daily smoking, the study can be considered to be a predictive correlational design. Experimental smoking after one year was the criterion variable while daily smoking was the predictor variable and the study was designed to determine the factors involved in the transition from one to the other.

II. Steps of Quantitative Analysis

The gathering of the information used in the study came from a 45 minute questionnaire and two in-person interviews. The questionnaires were completed by some 90,000 students and the ones chosen for interviews were those who had admitted to being experimental smokers, or those who had tried smoking but had not yet reached the daily definition of smoking at least one cigarette a day for thirty days. Of those who were admitted experimental smokers some 4,903 were chosen as a baseline and interviewed at home about factors related to smoking. One year later those experimental smokers were re-interviewed to determine the number who had transitioned to daily smokers as well as the factors involved. (Park, 2009, p.104) The data collected was then analyzed using multinomial logistic regression analysis to determine influential predictors that affect the transition from experimental smoking to daily smoking.

III. Level of Significance Concept

This study makes great use of statistics as the means of predicting future smoking behavior among adolescents and in doing so involves the concept of level of significance. As a concept the level of significance is the probability that something is most likely true and it involves the use of statistics to quantify factors and determine whether those factors are true.

IV. Level of Significance Reported in this Study

In the case of this study the authors used statistics to quantify those factors which they determined may be responsible for the transition from experimental smoking to daily smoking. These included demographic, PBT, and non-theory-related factors (friends who smoke, use of marijuana, use of alcohol, poor academic performance, age, gender, race, depression, perceived general health, and cigarette availability at home). In effect the authors asked if each of the factors could be responsible for the transition to daily smoking and what were the odds of that happening. The level of significance, produced as the confidence ratio in the study, can determine statistically whether or not it is true that the determined likelihood of a particular factor, determined by its odds ratio, is responsible for the transition to daily smoking.

V. Conclusion