Briefly describes what took place during the political movement known as the Arab Spring and indicate which countries were affected. Analyzes the impact of this movement on one of these countries in terms of political and social change. Determines if this movement will increase or decrease the amount of terrorism activity emanating from the country you selected and support your thesis. Provide an overall analysis of the impact of the Arab Spring on the state and non-state sponsored terrorism in the region.
Arab Spring has shifted the political landscape of North Africa and the Middle East. Starting in Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, the Arab Spring has often been described as a pro-democracy movement. It was characterized by massive political protests, organized largely by the use of social media, and led to a pan-regional revolution of sorts. Political leaders were overthrown, leading to disparate governments in each of the affected nations. The Arab Spring spread, partly due to social media but also due to more traditional methods of communication and information sharing, to the Middle East. Countries that have been impacted in one way or another include Syria, Bahrain, Yemen, Algeria, Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia (Angel, n.d.).
Undoubtedly, the Arab Spring has also altered the nature, focus, character, and goals of terrorism in the region. The types of changes that the Arab Spring has instigated, however, remain largely unknown. In Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah has recently clamped down against terrorism, at least in legislative actions (Boghardt, 2013). Regarding the Maghreb, Cruickshank (2011) cautiously finds that the Arab Spring "appears to have caught al Qaeda off guard and threatens to reduce the terrorist group to irrelevance," (p. 1). However, not all sources agree on how the Arab Spring has impacted terrorism and many believe that the Arab Spring may have increased extremism in several nations. Al-Qa'ida may have taken advantage of power vacuums and instability to further infiltrate the Maghreb (Gardner, 2011). Goodenough (2013) notes that the Arab Spring has strengthened Islamist political groups and Islamist ideology throughout the region. Clearly, the effects of the Arab Spring have impacted each country differently. In the Maghreb, it would appear that the Arab Spring has had a clearly defined role of reducing the appeal and relevance of Al Qa'ida and other terrorist groups. In Yemen, however, it seems that the Arab Spring has led to the unfortunate burgeoning and strengthening of terrorist organizations.
Yemen is a unique case study in the context of the Arab Spring. A relatively weak central government in Yemen has meant that the Arab Spring has had deleterious political consequences, leaving larger power vacuums than had previously existed (Hoffman, 2012). Al Qa'ida has been quick to take advantage of the situation in Yemen, whereas in the Maghreb, Al Qa'ida was taken more off-guard and lost touch with its target demographic (Cruickshank, 2011). The Yemen ambassador to the UK reported that terrorism was a "growing threat" in the country as "al-Qaeda and its affiliates are trying hard to seize towns and villages from a government weakened by months of popular protests and defections," (Gardner, 2011). Weakened in core regions due to counter-terrorism efforts and the Arab Spring, groups like Al Qa'ida are quick to recognize opportunities like those presented by Yemen.
The strengthening of terrorism movements in Yemen is not occurring in a vacuum. Terrorist networks are trans-national. For example, in nearly every nation impacted by the Arab Spring, there has been some renewed interest in extremist political organizations (Gardner, 2011). The difference is in degree, and in the overall likelihood of terrorist organizations taking root. Yemen is a prime example of opportunism from the perspective of Al-Qa'ida. The Arab Spring weakened the already limp central government there, and ironically, that government had been trying to "confront al Qaeda's growing presence in the tribal areas of the country," (Cruickshank, 2011, p. 1). Weakened government means weakened security forces, which allows for the proliferation of terrorist training camps in Yemen. Moreover, a lack of central government and identity has precluded Yemeni people from forging a vision for the future that does not include terrorism as a political option.
Yemen is one of several countries impacted by the Arab Spring. Terrorism may have increased in Yemen as a direct result of the Arab Spring, because the movement destabilized the government. Furthermore, Yemen has vulnerable and permeable borders that lack protection and security. There are vast regions of Yemen that counterterrorism forces do not understand, and for which they lack intelligence for to combat the proliferation of terrorist organizations. These complications make it highly likely that terrorism groups are acting as de facto local governments in weakened regions, which had previously been beholden to the central regime. Arab Spring protests in Yemen seemed to be as promising as they were in Tunisia, but even in Libya, terrorism has been taking root to fill power vacuums.
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