Dining Probability Dining Scenario Probabilities

Dining Probability

Dining Scenario Probabilities and Projections

* the range of outcomes

The range of outcomes for the scenario indicated include dining at a vegetarian restaurant which serves alcohol, dining at a non-vegetarian restaurant which serves alcohol, dining at a vegetarian restaurant which does not serve alcohol or dining at a non-vegetarian restaurant which does not serve alcohol. This range of outcomes is determined by the two primary variables provided by the case scenario which are the dining preferences of members of the four person party as distinguished between vegetarian (2) and non-vegetarian (2) and the drinking preferences of the four person part as distinguished between alcohol consumers (3) and non-alcohol consumers (1).

* Probability of each outcome

This denotes that the lowest probability is of going to a vegetarian restaurant which does not serve alcohol, as this represents a cross-section of a 1 in 2 probability of going to a vegetarian restaurant and a 1 in 4 probability of going to a restaurant which does not serve alcohol. Since we are not provided with the specific information on whether the one individual who does not consume alcohol is in the vegetarian or non-vegetarian category, this cross-section is the only conclusive probability which can be deduced concerning the vegetarian and non-alcohol consumer variables.

Likewise, a cross section of probability represents the likelihood of going to a non-vegetarian restaurant which does not serve alcohol as being low, with a 1 in 2 probability of going to a non-vegetarian restaurant and a 1 in 4 probability of going to a restaurant that does not serve alcohol. Concerning the probability of going to a vegetarian restaurant that serves alcohol without consideration of context or nuance, there is a 1 in 2 chance of going to the vegetarian restaurant and a 3 in 4 probability of going to a restaurant which does serve alcohol. The same proportion exists concerning the probability of going to a non-vegetarian restaurant which serves alcohol.

Objectives expected

The anticipated outcome of this discussion is to provide a clearer picture of the variables impacting the ultimate dining decision on a weighted basis. The objective of deciding upon a dining destination which is most amenable to all parties is intended to be met here by measuring against one another the probabilities resultant from individual preferences.

Certain aspects of the scenario remain inconclusive however, even given these measurements. It is clear that the 1 in 4 probability in both scenarios relating to the absence of alcohol are undermined by the 3 in 4 probability in both scenarios related to the presence of alcohol. However, in all instances relating to the decision to eat in a vegetarian or non-vegetarian restaurant, there is a 1 in 2 probability that makes it unclear how the two couples are likely to decide.