Forest fire management systems and urban fire department operations

Forest Fire Management Systems and Urban Fire Departments

Forest Fire Management Systems

New Technologies

Urban Fire Department

New Technologies

Descriptive Statistics

Suppression Costs for Federal Agencies. Source: National Interagency Fire

Appendix II Figure 2. The tactical priorities of structural firefighting operations

Appendix III Figure 3. Fire Fighter Average Salaries for 2002 (Full Time)

Discussion and Study of Forest Fire Management Systems and Urban Fire Departments

Fire is a destructive force whether it takes place in a the forest or urban setting. A fire of any size causes costly damage to the environment, personal property and even human life. This paper acts as a discussion and study of fire management systems for both the forest and urban style of fire fighting. By studying fire management systems, one can have a better understanding of how to construct better fire prevention and fire fighting strategies. This paper will also examine available technologies and training programs for fire organizations throughout the world. This will also include looking at various case studies and data pertaining to forest and structural fires. It will look to see if such technology and training influences fire fighting ability and success. The bottom line is in order for a fire fighting team to be successful, the must work like a well-oiled machine and this means utilizing fire management systems.

Chapter 1:

Introduction

1.1.Background

This paper will examine fire fighting and fire management systems as fire affects millions globally as a destructive force. It affects not only people, their personal property and belongings but it also affects a country's ecosystem and environments. This will project include looking at this topic from many angles in order to explore different types of fires and fire management systems specific to the type of fire being fought. In other words, it is easier to start this study by examining a broad view of the subject matter and then slowly determine the specifics of the focus of this work. This broad angle will include defining fire and the nature of destruction but also its implications globally. By defining fire one can better understand the force's far-reaching and long-term affects on different populations and discuss possible strategies in which to provide solutions to government agencies and firefighters in different areas of the world. This builds a framework from which one can begin to base specific conclusions.

Specifically, this course of study will investigate forest fire management systems and the technologies used to fight fires on this scale. This study will also investigate urban fire departments and the technologies used to fight fires where city populations are threatened. This investigation will include examining multi-national fire studies in hopes of determining the best course of action for each particular specialty. This will include a close study of different solutions or techniques of fire fighting available to each specialty. This will involve careful study of the management systems utilized. By focusing on technologies available in management systems, one hopes to determine that this technology plays a key role in success for the fire fighter in both environments. This paper will establish that the best strategy to combat and prevent the destruction of fire on both the forest and urban levels begins with training and knowledge of technology. This will promote efficiency in the field and offer fire fighters greater mobility. It would be interesting to see how these technologies coupled with training and team management, how both interventions pay a role in fire fighting in forests and urban settings influence the success rates. That, however, is not the focus of this study but the question remains, isn't it best to be flexible? This is where the International studies perused for this paper have offered a wealth of information that has varied greatly in focus. Still each study returned to the fact that a fire fighter's success rate is greatly affected by the training and technology available to his or her team.

Past experience has shown that the predominant causes of forest and land fires in the tropical region are human-induced fires. Most of the fires are used to dear a tract of land from unwanted vegetation trash and debris during the site preparation. Although fire uses for site preparation on a given piece of land are normally based on the locally existing standards and regulations, controlling an escaped fire that might lead to a large scale and devastating uncontrolled fire is not an easy task. Over the last two decades this situation has been exacerbated, as most tropical forests tend to become more susceptible to fire when a prolonged extreme dry weather known as El Nino occurs with a decreasing time interval.

In order to prevent the occurrence of fire catastrophes and reduce the adverse impacts of fires to forest resources and environment in the future a clear and appropriate policy and regulation on forest and land fire management is inevitable. They become a general guideline, laid down by the competent government agencies, in particular for both individuals and organizations whose activities may potentially cause an uncontrolled fire.

1.2.Statement of the Problem

The issue of fire destruction and fight fighting in both country and urban settings and likely forms of fire fighting technique such as use of GPS technology and early warning systems were assessed in this research to correlate with actual success rates found in different international studies.

As a result of this study, this research presented preliminary findings related to these fire management strategies and rather or not these strategies sustained a change in work style for the fire fighter and fire fighting teams. This study examined multiple international studies and surveys carried out by four countries: the United States, Canada, Indonesia and Switzerland. The study examined the nature of fire, its destruction and techniques in which to combat its spread in both wild and urban fires settings. Examination of differences in these types of settings and the success rates, that may exist, has been examined. The effects of the various factors contributing to fire and destruction were examined relative to how these factors act as variables in determining which technique of fire fighting works best for the specific setting.

1.2.1.Purpose of the Study

The purpose of the study is to better understand fire and its destructive nature upon the forest and urban setting. This requires defining how fires come about, under which conditions and how fires work within these settings. A further purpose of this study is to take a look at fire management systems that are utilized within these two settings. By understanding each step of the fire management system used in each setting, one can better put into place a strategy for fighting the fire. Also another purpose of this study is to look at technologies and training available to fire fighters within these settings. It is also important to look at how these technologies are used and understood by the fire fighters and how this training may or may not influence the outcome of the fire, its path and resulting implications to the environment and community of the setting. This takes into account environmental implications for the ecosystem, its plants, fauna and animals that depend on a healthy balance. This also takes into account the social implications that may result when a fire destroys personal and public property alike.

1.2.2.Importance of the Study

The study of fire and fire management systems is important so that progress and innovation can be included as an elemental part of the fire fighting strategy for fire departments globally. It is also important to study fire and how it acts within different settings to get a better idea of which strategy works best depending on certain variables. This study is important so that one can see how fire impacts different settings but also how management of fire impacts the settings as well. It is important to understand every detail but also it is important to understand how the very action of fire fighting plays the greatest role. From a business stand point, understanding how fire works and the how technologies available to fire departments can influence the outcome of a fire, is important to research. Many government agencies need to understand how technology while expense can be a worthwhile investment in the overall quality of fire fighting service and response. Training, also is important to examine in conjunction with technology as both go hand in hand and supplement each other. In other words, all the technology can applied but will not be effective if not understand fully. This in the wrong hands, can lead to further destruction and catastrophe, even loss of life.

1.2.3.Scope of the Study

The setting types studied were forest and urban fire departments based on data from the international studies focusing a comparison between western case studies and Indonesian case study results currently available. These studies were divided into these two categories according to setting type. From that point, it was important to make note of different variables studied in each case. These variables include location, ecosystem, human influence and season among others. It was then important to see the degree at which technology and training played a role in combating each fire.

1.2.4.Rationale of the Study

What is that can be gained from this study? The reasoning behind such a study is born out of a need to provide better training for fire fighters so that fire management systems will improve and reduce the amount of loss due to the fire. By studying such a topic, one can gain the knowledge of how to better train fire fighters and how to make his or her job safer in the process. This in turn, results in reduced losses due to the fire. This also results in higher service ratings for the fire department and an increase in morale for the community.

1.3.Definition of Terms

Fire

The Underlying Causes of Fire.

It has already become a general knowledge that the majority of forest and land fire incidents in the tropics are human-caused fires. Yet the underlying causes of fire could be broken down into several factors as follows:

Community Attitude towards Fire

The local community has long practiced the fire-used land preparation for agricultural purposes as it provides cheap and easy management tool as well as increases soil fertility. The application of this system has still continued with an increasing rate due to increasing community's dependency on land for their livelihood. In addition, this situation has been exacerbated, as community's awareness on the adverse impacts of fire to the global environment is still low.

Nature Condition and Properties

The forest management shortcomings over the last three decades have resulted in a significant degradation on the structure and composition of the majority of the natural tropical forests in Indonesia. This has led to forests becoming more flammable as opposed to their original condition. The presence of deep and large-scale peat layers coupled with coal seams underneath the forest floor have caused suppression measures becoming more difficult when a fire occurs in such a forest In addition, most of the burned forests are located in the remote areas with low accessibility hence fire suppression activities are more difficult. Last but not the least the present weather pattern is unpredictable and long periods of dry, extreme weather are more likely to happen as a result of the changing global climates.

Absence of Leading Agency

Presently several governmental agencies are involved in forest and land fire control measures as a consequence of their function and responsibility. These agencies include Ministry of Forestry, Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, National Coordination Board for Disasters and Refugees Management, Provincial Government, District Government and so forth. Although there is co-operation among the involved agencies this co-operation is confined to a coordination forum and is usually not applicable for a field operation. In addition, these agencies tend to implement their own policies and programs ignoring the linkages to the other relevant agencies. In the mean time an effective and efficient fire management control requires a clear single line of command right from the central level to the operational level in the field. Therefore establishing a leading agency along with supporting agencies that clearly defines who is doing what constitutes a prerequisite in managing forest and land fire.

Lack of Control and Enforcement

Although the basic acts and regulations for forest and land fire are already in place limited socialization has resulted in a lack of implementation control by both respective government agencies and community. Furthermore, relatively low understanding coupled with a weak commitment of the legal personnel in enforcing the existing laws and regulations have caused inconsistent and ineffective implementation. In addition sanctions and penalties imposed to those violating the regulations have not yet engendered deterrent effects.

Fire Management System

Fire management means all the activities associated with the management of fire prone land values, including the use of fire to meet land management objectives.

Prescribed Burning

Prescribed burning means the controlled application of fire to a determined area under specified environmental conditions and at the time and intensity needed to meet management objectives.

Wildfire

Wildfire means any unplanned vegetation fire.

Fire Regime

Fire regime means the season, intensity, patchiness and frequency of fire in a given over a period of time.

Global Positioning System (GPS) and Global Information System (GIS)

GIS is an organized collection of computer hardware, software, geographic data, and personnel designed to efficiently capture, store, update, manipulate, analyze and display all forms of geographically referenced information. GIS technology enables forest professionals and concerned citizens to view, in map overlays, the complex variables of forest ecosystems.

1.4.Brief Overview of the Study and Related Literature

In this review of previous studies and related literature, information is presented in support of and in anticipation of the methodology and the analysis of this study. In order to constrain the literature review to a manageable yet representative account of the development of the concepts and constructs employed in this study, the focus was on studies within the framework of forest fire management system contrasted with urban fire department team management and technologies and training that aid in fire prevention and fire fighting. Within those studies cited however, are many more and far-reaching references across the spectrum related to the subject research. A number of the referenced works included here are themselves fairly exhaustive and comprehensive reviews. Of these, a wide range of research studies on fire, the ramifications of fire to both the environments of forest and city, fire strategy, management systems, fire fighting techniques and training of fire fighters for either specialty have been explored; particularly those related to forest and urban settings, results and success stories. Chapter 2 of this dissertation outlines in much more detail the sources and the assessment of these literatures.

1.5.Highlights of Methodology

This research was conducted to study fire, its destruction in both forest and urban settings but also how technology and training make fighting the fire more efficient and less destructive. This research focused on four particular countries where fires in both settings happen regularly to the point where government agencies have invested both time and money into strengthening fire education, awareness and prevention. By exploring the differences between forest fire fighting and urban fire departments and looked at the results of both such environments to see which was more successful when new technologies were available. These studies were mainly conducted in the United States, Canada, Switzerland and Indonesia of differing populations within the forest and urban settings. A qualitative descriptive methodology was used to evaluate and to measure each performance and success rate. This study offered such data to act as a basis of analysis when looking at these methods as they pertain to fire destruction across the globe. The study allows for not only this foundation of western statistics but also a focus on Asian data. These collections of data were used for research purposes only. The qualitative descriptive methodology was used to evaluate the data, which, was collected during this study. The detailed study plan is further explained in Chapter 3 of this dissertation.

1.6.Limitations of Study few limitations were encountered during the implementation of this study; the following are the preliminary main issues:

Resources

Resources were lacking to conduct a complete survey of western fire fighters participating in fire management system programs in both forest and urban setting where new technologies were introduced recently to augment traditional methods. Resources were lacking to conduct a complete survey of Indonesian fire fighters within these management systems for both forest and urban settings where new technologies were introduced recently to augment traditional methods. Lastly resources were lacking to conduct a complete survey of both western and Asian fire fighters who were trained adequately in new technologies such as GPS and early warning systems. Data collection was contingent on careful study of the international studies focusing on the four countries discussed. Data was found pertaining to the two settings of fire fighting with a focus on new technologies as a means of better management. Information and data gathering was conducted in the best way possible without actual physical surveying of fire fighters in the four countries discussed.

1.7.Research Expectations

The focus of this dissertation study is to assess the success rates of technologies in reducing fire and fire destruction when a fire takes place in the forest or urban setting. For example, the relationship between fire fighters and technology was studied to see if the technology at all varied or changed the response time, time to put the fire out and destructiveness of the fire. The aim of the research is to try to obtain a better understanding relative to how these styles could improve the management success rates of fire fighting and overall prevention of the fire.

Surveys from various institutions were studied to get a better picture as to the extent of technology involvement needed for success. However with these surveys and other data documents came the challenges born out of fire fighting being a multi-faceted. In other words, every fire much like a fingerprint or snowflake is unique and will burn depending on the different variables of the situation. In other words, such search brought to light not just the physical ailments that the environment suffers after a fire but also the emotional ailments of people affected by fire. This search also uncovers the nature of the very job of fire fighting being courageous and dangerous yet unpaid.

Overall, this dissertation focused on issues that involve fire fighting and the intervention styles studied to draw conclusions and act as a basis for continued solutions for fire strategy. The research of this subject of fire fighting, and technologies provided alongside training, the success rates, is needed to understand possible strategies for fire management systems in both forest and urban settings for the next generation. It also is needed to understand possible implications of fire on the environments discussed. It is important to see the relationships that are formed to understand better ways of making them more effective over a greater period of time and not just for the fire fighter but also for the individuals that form communities in these settings.

Relevant questions include whether or not these technologies even make a difference in forest and urban settings. Does training matter? Does it improve response and success when it comes to safety and mortality. It was also necessary to know whether or not these tools are useful for the subjects involved. How effective were such tactics for fire fighters, fire management, policy makers and the public.

The overall goal of this dissertation was to identify whether or not fire technologies available to fire fighters improved the response times and success rates. Did the technology also promote fire prevention, education and change in policy for the communities? To this end, data and analysis from the same studies representing the United States, Canada, Switzerland and Indonesia were used.

The focus was to study data that used technology as GPS as a measure of success for fire management in forest and urban settings. Although, many research areas in this field of fire management systems and technology have been interested in the impact of this prevention approach to fire reduction, success rate, and duration of success, the research was primarily concerned with assessing the effectiveness of the technologies when compared with the training programs. Another goal of this dissertation was to identify the long-term implications of fires on these settings. The range of results was examined carefully with this mind. The success rates were qualified on the basis of the setting type.

Chapter 2:

Review of Related Literature

2.1.Introduction

Specifically, this course of study will investigate forest fire management systems and the technologies used to fight fires on this scale. This study will also investigate urban fire departments and the technologies used to fight fires where city populations are threatened. This investigation will include examining multi-national fire studies in hopes of determining the best course of action for each particular specialty. This will include a close study of different solutions or techniques of fire fighting available to each specialty. This will involve careful study of the management systems utilized. By focusing on technologies available in management systems, one hopes to determine that this technology plays a key role in success for the fire fighter in both environments. This paper will establish that the best strategy to combat and prevent the destruction of fire on both the forest and urban levels begins with training and knowledge of technology. This will promote efficiency in the field and offer fire fighters greater mobility.

The 1994 fire season saw numerous large wildfires, with the deaths of several firefighters and the destruction of many structures. Many observers suggested that the extent and severity of the fires was largely due to the poor health of the national forests of the West (Frazier, 2003) These observers argue that activities to improve forest health by reducing fuel loadings will also reduce fire control costs and fire damages. This report describes fuel management and its benefits for controlling wildfires and for reducing fire damages, and discusses the relative roles and responsibilities of the Federal and State governments in wildfire protection (Anderson, 1983, p. 1).

2.2.Hypothesis

Upon reviewing the literature and for the purposes of this study the following relationships can be hypothesized:

Ha1: There is a positive relationship between technology and training and the success of fire fighting rates or in other words, a decrease in fire related deaths and property loss.

H1b: There is a positive relationship between fire management systems and efficiency regarding use of technology in forest and urban settings.

H1c: There is a positive relationship between managing fire systems and training in new technologies.

H1d: There is a positive relationship between fire management's use of technology and active training programs when it comes to public fire education and prevention in forest and urban settings.

2.3.Forest Fire Management Systems

Forest fires depend on three things: fuel, heat and oxygen. Taking away one of them will put out the fire. Methods or resources for controlling the fire can be divided into airborne agents and ground agents. Airborne agents such as airplanes and helicopters drop water or chemical retardants in front of the fire and take away heat or oxygen. Ground agents such as trucks and land rovers are equipped with water tanks for directly attacking the fire. Other ground agents are bulldozers, tractors or people equipped with for example chain saws. These agents cut fire lines, which is an effective means of removing fuel. The choice of methods and equipment which are actually used depends on the country and kind of environment (Calabri, 1982).

Once a fire outbreak is signaled, the fire manager evaluates the situation and makes an initial attack plan to stop the spread of fire. This plan consists of a number of fire lines or sub-plans which break the fire propagation. Then the manager allocates resources from neighboring resource bases to fulfill all sub-plans. Once the resources have started the fight, the field commander is in control. They coordinate the teams in the field and get a stream of online information which enables them to reevaluate plans constantly, for example if the situation gets too dangerous, the coordinator can choose to retreat.

Currently, a few fire management systems have been constructed to support fire managers in their making (Beer, 1990 and Kourtz 1994). The CHARADE project (Ricci et al., 199) is a software platform for the development of intelligent EDSSs and has been used to construct a working EDSS for managing first intervention in forest fires. The planning system integrates case-based reasoning and constraint reasoning and is integrated with a Geographic information system (GIS) for displaying spatial data and a model for simulating forest fires. Kourtz (1994) describes various applications of expert systems and Artificial Intelligence or AI algorithms to support managing forest fires in Canada and the United States. This technology is slowly becoming available to high threat fire areas like Indonesia.

Slow Initial Response Limited availability of qualified human resources, equipments and machineries and budget allocated along with the absence of an appropriate system have caused a relatively slow initial response to a given fire incident. Data and information generated from the detection and early warning system has not been effectively utilized to strengthen the fire control measures at both central and field operation levels. To some extent fire has not been considered as a serious threat to forest resources and environment disturbances.

Basic Legal Frameworks

There are two main fire-related basic acts and regulations that apply for forest and land fire management in Indonesia, namely Act No. 41/1999 concerning Forestry and Government Regulation No. 4/2001 concerning Controlling Environmental Damages and/or Pollution Associated with Forest and Land Fire.

Forestry Act No. 41/1999

Basically the Forestry Act No. 41/1999 stipulates that controlling forest and land fire is an integral part of the forest resources protection measures. The government has the authority to lay down regulations related to fire management both within the forest and outside the forest areas. In order to be effective the implementation of the regulation concerned should involve wherever possible the local community in the respective area.

The act also stipulates that every individual is forbidden to burn the forest area. An individual that violates this regulation will be liable for a maximum of 15 years in prison and a maximum fine of Rp. 5 billions while an unintentional violation due to carelessness will be liable for a maximum of 5 years in prison and a maximum fine of Rp. 1.5 billions.

Government Regulation No. 4/2001

The Government Regulation No. 4/2001 basically provides a further detailed provision on responsibility division among central, provincial and district/city governments in controlling forest and land fire-related damages and pollution to environment. In addition the regulation also determines the obligations and responsibilities of individuals and organizations in preventing and controlling forest and land fire in their working areas.

The central government has responsibility to coordinate measure for controlling both country trans-boundary and provincial trans-boundary forest and land fires. This includes establishing national guidelines for forest and land fire management, procuring facilities and equipments, developing human resources for fire prevention and suppression and promoting international cooperation.

The provincial governments have responsibility to coordinate measures for controlling district trans-boundary forest and land fires within their respective jurisdictions. This includes establishing provincial specific technical guidelines for forest and land fire management, developing cooperation both with the nearby provincial governments and central government, assigning authorized institutions (leading and supporting agencies), promoting people awareness and responsibility in preventing fire occurrence and providing the public with information on the occurrences of fire and their adverse impacts to environment.

The district/city governments have responsibility to conduct operational measures for controlling forest and land fires within their respective jurisdictions. This includes establishing district/city specific operational guidelines for forest and land fire management, assigning authorized institutions (leading and supporting agencies), developing cooperation both with the nearby district/city governments and provincial governments, preventing; suppressing and mitigating forest and land fires and monitoring and reporting environmental quality associated with fire.

Forest and Land Fire Management Policies

Pursuant to the aforementioned act regulation and recognizing the magnitude of the adverse impacts of fire to forest resources and environment over the last two decades the Government of Indonesia has determined forest and land fire control as one of the five national priority programs for at least the next ten years. The basic concept applied in forest and land fire management policy is that prevention measures play a more important role than suppression. In addition local community involvement is incorporated both in designing and implementing the policy. There are three main policies currently adopted for forest and land fire management, namely institutional development policy, technical operational policy, and community participation and empowering policy.

Institutional Development Policy

The institutional development policy is aimed at strengthening institutional (organization, facility and equipment, regulation and fund) capacity and capability of all stakeholders involved in forest and land fire management. This policy comprises some priority programs, namely establishing Forest Fire Brigades so called Manggala Agni as a front line institution for controlling forest and land fire at both provincial and district levels, developing fire suppression equipment, improving forest fire management systems and strengthening both inter-sector and foreign cooperation and coordination.

The establishment of these Forest Fire Brigades is expected to be a model and stimulator for other related stakeholders in developing similar institution for forest and land fire control within their responsible jurisdictions and/or working areas. As an initial stage in 2002 the Ministry of forestry has established five Forest Fire Brigades in the five most fire prone provinces. North Sumatera, Riau, Jambi, Central Kalimantan and West Kalimantan, encompassing around twenty-one operational zones at district level. They have been equipped with personnel recruited from Forest Ranger at the respective Agency for Nature Conservation and local community around the operational zone concerned, adequate equipments and operational budget as well as working guideline and mechanism. In 2003 another 10- Forest Fire Brigade will also be developed in some other fire prone provinces including South Sumatra Province.

Technical Operational Policy

The technical operational policy consists of three sub-policies i.e. prevention, suppression and impact mitigation. The prevention policy is primarily aimed at increasing people awareness on the adverse impacts of fire to forest resources and environment, maintaining combustible fuels and ignition sources within a controllable condition and strengthening early detection and early warning measures. The suppression policy is emphasized on empowering human resources and available machineries and equipment for initial fire suppressions. The impact mitigation policy is focused on law enforcement, completion of justice process for a fire outlaw and rehabilitation of the burned-over areas. The main programs under this policy include developing a forest and land fire campaign, increasing early warning and detection capability, conducting fire suppression operations and promoting adverse impact mitigation activities.

Community Participations and Empowering Policy

The community participations and empowering policy is directed towards increasing local community's involvement and empowerment in forest and land fire management as well as strengthening commitment in natural resources and environmental protection from fire hazards. The main programs within this policy focus on increasing local community participation through establishing village fire brigades and empowering local community economics by introducing a non-fire land preparation technology. The latter program would be initially implemented by establishing a pilot project on charcoal home industry development. The raw materials for the industry are acquired from the unburned vegetation trash and debris that collected during the site preparation.

Expectation to the SSFFMP

As it has already stipulated in the current land and forest fire control-related acts and regulations along with consideration of the important role played by international cooperation in supporting land and forest fire control in Indonesia there are some expectations that could be produced by such cooperation to address the land and forest fire problems.

Since South Sumatra Forest Fire Management Project (SSFFMP) constitutes a manifestation of international cooperation between the Indonesian Government and the European Community in South Sumatra Province hence the cooperation would be expected to support and facilitate measures for addressing land and forest fire problems encountered at both provincial and district levels.

Fuel Management

Interest in fuel management, to reduce fire control costs and damages, has been renewed with the numerous, destructive wildfires spread across the West during the summer of 1994. Fuel management is often linked to forest health, since major forest health concerns include excess biomass (i.e., fuel loadings) and catastrophic fires. Several tools, such as prescribed burning and salvage timber sales, can address these problems, but the extent of the problem and the cost of needed treatments are generally unknown. Fuel management may well reduce fire control costs and damages, but the evidence is largely anecdotal, with few documented estimates of the decline in control costs and/or damages associated with fuel treatments. Finally, the roles and responsibilities of the Federal and State governments in fire protection may be subject to further debate.

The Forest Service began moving into fuel management in the 1960s, to reduce the net cost of wildfires to society. Although numerous techniques can be used, one of the most common is prescribed burning, intentionally setting fires within established control boundaries under prescribed conditions to burn the existing fuels when and where the fire can be contained. Occasionally, weather conditions change and prescribed fires escape, causing unanticipated damages. For example, the Mack Lake fire in Michigan in May 1980 was a prescribed fire that escaped and killed one person and destroyed 44 homes and buildings (Allan, 2003). Despite the obvious risks, however, prescribed burning can be an efficient tool for reducing small-diameter fuels at or near ground level.

Salvage timber operations can also be used to reduce fuel loadings. The Timber Salvage Sale Fund is a self-financing, permanently appropriated special account, with receipts from designated salvage sales deposited into the account for use in preparing and administering future salvage sales (and for road construction associated with those salvage sales) (Allan, 2003). To the extent that salvage sales remove woody materials from the forest, they can be considered fuel management activities. Furthermore, they can be legitimate tools for achieving desired forest health conditions (Anderson, 1983). However, because they have to be sold, salvage sales must focus at least partially on removing merchantable wood, and reducing fuel loadings or achieving desired forest conditions could be compromised. At a minimum, salvage sales are insufficient to fulfill the latter goals. In addition, salvage sales can be costly to the U.S. Treasury; they often cost more than the revenues they can generate, because timber quality is lower and operating costs for the buyers are higher. Other tools for reducing fuel loadings also exist. Pruning, pre-commercial thinning, and mechanical or chemical release can reduce live biomass and make it more susceptible to elimination, naturally (through decomposition or wildfire) or in prescribed fires. However, these tools are less commonly used because of their relatively high costs.

Finally, the possible extent of fuel management and forest health activities is largely undefined. To date, the discussions of prescribed burning, salvage sales, and other fuel management or forest health activities have identified neither the acreage needing treatment nor the likely treatment costs. Treatment costs probably range from less than $100 to more than $1,000 per acre; "average" costs may be about $250 per acre (Frazier, 2003). If ten percent of the National Forest System lands in the coterminous western States, about 14 million acres, were treated, total treatment costs would be $3.5 billion, roughly equal to the annual Forest Service budget. However, these "guesstimates" are very coarse; needed treatments might cost less than $1 billion or more than $10 billion and could be spread over a decade or more (Frazier, 2003).

FIRE CONTROL

In general, when wildfires occur, the fire organization swings into full gear to try to stop them. For several years, beginning in the late 1970s, the Forest Service and the National Park Service had "prescribed natural fire" policies. In wilderness areas and Park System units with fire management plans, wildfires burning within prescribed situations were monitored, rather than aggressively suppressed. These policies have been colloquially known as "let-burn" policies. In recognition of the financial and environmental costs of total fire suppression, these policies permitted the use of wildfires to achieve the goals of prescribed fires. Following the Yellowstone fires in 1988, however, the use of prescribed natural fire was halted. While one can question whether the prescriptions were sufficiently responsive to burning conditions (fuel moisture, precipitation, dry lightning, winds, etc.), the termination of prescribed natural fire policies may have been an overreaction to the public sentiment.

The public outcry over the fires in Yellowstone and during the summer of 1994 is, in part, a result of the belief that all wildfires can be controlled. This belief is widespread, internally as well as among the public, because of our general success in controlling structural fires in urban and suburban areas and because all wildfires eventually go out. However, most fire experts agree that, because of fuel types and loadings, topography, and temporary weather conditions (lasting a few hours to several weeks), some fires simply cannot be stopped and some cannot even be influenced. Substantial funds are spent on efforts to suppress what are uncontrollable wildfires. Such efforts contribute to the belief in our ability to stop all wildfires, and lead the public to believe that damages from wildfires only occur because of the Government has been inefficient and ineffective.

The desire to control all wildfires has also led to a belief that fast, aggressive control efforts are efficient, because fires that are stopped while small will not become the large, damaging, fearsome fires that are so expensive to control. The belief in efficiency of fast, aggressive fire control was embodied in the 10-acre and 10:00 A.M. policies of the 1930s (Frazier, 2003). However, only a fraction of fire ignitions ever become catastrophic fires, even without fire suppression. These 10-acre and 10:00 A.M. policies were terminated in the late 1970s, because research documented that the policies led to organization size and efforts that far outweighed the benefits of fire control.

The preferred technique to evaluate the economics of fire control, and of fuel management, is known as "least-cost-plus-loss" (Hardy et al., 1999). This approach, in essence, asserts that fire control is only justified by the damage prevented. Little or no fire control is economically justified for wildfires that are doing little or no damage (the underlying idea for the prescribed natural fire policies) or for wildfires that cannot be controlled (because no damage can be prevented). Similarly, fuel management is justified only when the treatment costs are less than the benefits, either in reduced control expenditures or in reduced damages. Proponents of forest health activities often assert that reduced fuel loadings can reduce fire control costs and damages. This assertion is logical, and is supported by some anecdotal evidence. However, there appears to be very little research documentation of widespread fire control savings from fuel treatment, which is essential to demonstrate the merit of forest health activities for fire control savings.

WILDFIRE EFFECTS

Wildfires can damage lands and resources. Timber is burned, although some may be salvageable. Existing forage, for livestock and wildlife, is destroyed. The reduced vegetation can increase erosion; in severe situations, such as southern California, the result can be mudslides when the wet season returns. And burned areas are not pretty.

The damages of wildfires on lands and resources are often overstated, for two reasons. First, fires are patchy, leaving unburned areas within the fire perimeter. Thus, reports of acres burned, typically calculated from the perimeter, overstate the actual acres burned by 10 to 50%, depending on the local vegetative, weather, and other conditions.

Damages are also usually overstated, because fires do not destroy every living thing within the burned areas. Mature conifers often survive even when their entire crowns are scorched; a few species, notably lodge pole pine and jack pine, are serotinous -- their cones will only open and spread their seeds when they have been exposed to the heat of a wildfire. Grasses and other plants are often benefited by wildfire, because fire quickly decomposes organic matter into its mineral components (a process that, in the arid West, may require years or decades without fire), and the flush of nutrients accelerates plant growth for a few growing seasons. Few animals are killed by even the most severe wildfires; rather, many animals seek out burned sites for the newly available minerals and for the flush of plant growth. Erosion is typically far worse along the fire control lines than from the broad burned areas. The recognition of these ecological benefits from fire was a major factor in the end of the 10-acre and 10:00 A.M. policies and their replacement with fuel management and prescribed fire (natural and otherwise).

Nonetheless, the net damages from wildfires are generally greater when fires burn more intensely. Thus, lower fuel loadings may reduce the net damages caused by wildfires. Proponents argue that forest health activities to reduce fuel loadings also reduce wildfire damages. Again, this assertion is logical, and is supported by some anecdotal evidence, but there appears to be very little research documenting widespread reduction in wildfire damages from fuel treatment. Such evidence is critical, however, to justify of forest health activities from lower fire damages.

Finally, it should be noted that emergency rehabilitation occurs on many of the large, severe wildfires. While emergency activities can prove beneficial, especially for erosion control, they may inhibit the restoration of natural ecological processes. In particular, grasses are often seeded in severely burned areas. However, the quick-growing grasses typically used may not be native to the area, and some grasses suppress tree seedling establishment and growth. Thus, while solving some environmental problems, emergency rehabilitation may cause other problems.

ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES

The Federal Government clearly has a responsibility for fire protection on the Federal lands. The responsibility for protecting homes and structures on private lands in and around the Federal lands, however, is less clear. In general, the States are responsible for fire protection on non-federal lands, although cooperative agreements may shift those responsibilities (especially when a realignment is efficient). It may be appropriate to maintain some separation, because of structures on non-federal lands and the differences between structural fires and wildfires. Structural firefighters use different techniques and face different hazards from wildfire fighters, but basic Federal firefighting courses focus on fighting wildfires. Urban fire fighting will be discussed later in this review.

Furthermore, the Forest Service has a cooperative fire protection program within its State and Private Forestry branch. This includes: [1] financial and technical assistance to State and other governmental organizations; [2] equipment loans of excess Federal personal property; and [3] cooperative fire prevention to provide a nationwide fire prevention program through public service advertising, education, partnerships, and other efforts. FY1994 appropriations for cooperative fire protection were $17.1 million, but the budget request for FY1995 was only $3.7 million, because President Clinton has proposed eliminating the financial assistance program (as was proposed several times by Presidents Reagan and Bush)(Hardy, et al., 1999).

Another question is about the relative priorities in wildfire suppression. Assuming that the fires can be controlled, should Federal firefighting decisions include values at risk on adjoining or surrounded non-federal lands? If so, this is effectively Federal fire protection for certain private lands and structures. If not, the Federal Government may be liable for damages to private lands and structures from wildfires originating on the Federal lands essentially free Federal fire insurance. In either case, it raises the question of whether Federal responsibility warrants Federal regulation. If the Federal government is responsible for fire protection and/or insurance, then regulating building materials, site clearing and planting, road construction and access, etc. might be appropriate to constrain Federal costs.

2.3.1.New Technologies and Training Programs

GPS and GIS

Studying different combinations of overlays helps people understand the effects of changes in one or more variables on the system as a whole or other particular part. A GIS makes it possible to link, or integrate, information that is difficult to associate through any other means.

Some of the variables considered in GIS analysis of ponderosa pine forests include: old-growth rarity, meadow shrinkage due to tree encroachment, and spatial patterns of age-class distributions. Patterns of biodiversity, habitat characteristics, and fire behavior can be manipulated in map displays to simulate the effects of management strategies on forest structure, composition and processes.

CHARADE, a unique software tool supporting the complete fire-fighting process, meets this need. CHARADE contains several integrated facilities including a situation assessment module for the quick and automatic assessment of emergency situations; a resource manager and an interactive planner to improve exploitation of available resources and a real-time simulator, which has proved to be extremely useful for training purposes. These functions are supported by a geographic database, containing information on features such as vegetation, the water supply and roads. User-friendly screens and specially designed dialogue assist the operator in accomplishing the tasks required.

CHARADE is being deployed at CIRCOSC in France and ICONA in Spain (responsible for civil security and nature conservation respectively). There is a large and growing market (estimated to be worth some 300 MECU) among civil security centers in the Mediterranean region for fire management and control support systems. CHARADE can easily be extended to other types of environmental emergency, such as pollution control or flooding. In particular, several techniques developed under CHARADE could be applied elsewhere, such as in simulation and automatic assessment of emergency situations, the application of planning and scheduling techniques for resource management, and for interactive techniques for task execution.

IBM Global Services developed the initial phase of a complex planning and budgeting system to optimize cost-effectiveness for the U.S. Forest Service, which includes mathematical modeling (linear programming) and geospatial (GIS) data for more effective wild land fire management. In the U.S., fighting and preventing fires on public lands is carried out by five separate federal agencies and hundreds of state and local agencies. Agencies analyze and submit independent budgets. Specifically, it has been difficult to manage federal budget submissions. An interagency Fire Program Analysis (FPA) System was defined and developed as the comprehensive interagency fire planning and budget analysis system.

As part of the FPA project, the Preparedness Module is intended to be the foundation for future enhancements that will add modeling and budget planning for the other major elements of the wild lands fire management program. It encompasses the process of planning and budgeting of the fire suppression resources for the forthcoming fire seasons, and the first release focuses on allocating resources for the initial attack and does not yet include planning for "extended" and "large" wildfires. It will allow planners to define multiple fire management objectives and then calculate and compare the cost-effectiveness of various fire management alternatives. The FPA project was approved on the basis that the system would be built under contract by a competent and reliable partner.

IBM Global Services was selected in a competitive bid process to design and construct the initial Preparedness Module of FPA. FPA is a Web-based application which uses optimization techniques developed by IBM Watson Research to help fire planners find cost effective fire management alternatives for any budget level. The application uses C+, Java and XML and integrates commercial off-the-shelf software for the optimization engine, the geospatial (GIS) data and the underlying database management system.

This solution will allow the five U.S. federal agencies to coordinate their annual planning process for wild land fire management as mandated by the U.S. Congress. The objective is the submission of a coordinated budget. The application's Web architecture provides access to all of the agencies involved and will allow for remote access from the field. The new coordination processes are intended to enable more effective allocation of resources, including fire suppression, fire prevention and ecosystem management measures. The new system uses a "landscape scale" approach (taking into account geography and topology considerations across jurisdictional boundaries) and includes consideration of state and local fire management resources. Fire management approaches can be defined and tested for relative cost-effectiveness based on both historical fire experience data and various projections using available science.

IBM gives the agencies an "industrial strength" supplier, with recognized application development processes, proven experience in complex integration projects and long-term capability for ongoing development and support. IBM made a commitment to the business issue at hand -- fire management -- with appropriate partnership arrangements. IBM Global Services assigns staffing in a very flexible manner through the capability to assemble a software development team, even for Java projects, using blended onsite/offsite staffing.

In the U.S., fighting and preventing fires on public lands is carried out by each of the federal agencies for the lands under their management. There are five such agencies. One is the Forest Service (FS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The other four are in the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI): the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the National Parks Service (NPS), the Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS) and the Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA). National forests and grasslands encompass 192 million acres (77.3 million hectares) of land, which is an area equivalent to the size of Texas.

Fires associated with the El NiA±o/Southern Oscillation climate event devastated huge areas of tropical rainforest in 1997-98. A detailed satellite-based survey of the damage caused to forests in Indonesia, the country with the largest remaining rainforest area in Asia, reveals that over 5.2 million hectares including 2.6 Mio ha of forests burned in East Kalimantan alone. This is much more than previously thought and could spell trouble. If current land use policies continue unchanged, the prospects are that forest fires, boosted by future El NiA±os, could lead to an irrevocable loss of important forest resources within a matter of years.

This research was based on the application of advanced satellite image processing technologies using a combination of radar and optical satellite imagery. It is the first to successfully identify fire damages using ERS-Radar satellite imagery on a very large area of tropical rainforest. The new technology allows to map burn scars, fire impact and deforestation even when cloud and haze hamper conventional optical satellites. It was demonstrated that radar microwave satellites such as ERS are a powerful instrument for disaster management and resource mapping in tropical regions. A detailed spatial analysis of fire impact was done by a combined evaluation of results from the remote sensing survey, data from field studies and official planning data in a global information system (GIS).

A radar-satellite-based survey of fire impact

During active burning and the months after the fires, clouds and haze severely hampered or made impossible a damage assessment by the means of conventional earth observation satellites. Therefore it was chosen to base a damage assessment study on the interpretation of images acquired by the European radar satellite ERS-2. Radar has the capacity to penetrate clouds and haze, thus enabling observation of the earth's surface even during difficult meteorological conditions. Through application of change detection methods on artificial images composed of radar images acquired before, during and after the fires we were able to discriminate different levels of fire damage on an area of 5.2 Mio ha. It was also discriminated simple land-use classes from radar images and were thus able to give a precise estimate of 2.6 Mio ha of forested land affected by the fires.

Using Landsat satellite images to evaluate impact of logging subset of the area was studied in detail with the help of a the only cloud-free images available for the time of the fires. With this images, it was possible to discriminate closed forest from forests degraded by logging. An overlay with the data retrieved from the radar-based fire map showed that more forests opened up by logging activities burned and that these forests were hit harder by the fires than closed forests.

A detailed ground survey

Intense ground checks were done during several journeys inland and through aerial surveys with low-flying airplanes. The tracks of these surveys were recorded using the global positioning system (GPS) and integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS). In one 30.000 ha-concession affected by fire a detailed ground inventory recorded damage levels for the whole concession. Again, it could be shown that the recently logged areas were more severely affected than closed forest areas.

High future fire risk through large amounts of dead fuel

The fires left millions of trees dead, but unburned. These provide fuel for future fires that could even be more devastating. Continued heavy impact logging and large scale conversion of forested areas to plantations may additionally increase the risk of future fires. A revision of land use policies and increased fire prevention activities are therefore called for.

Geographic Information System (GIS) data is being used by forestry departments across the country to help save lives as well as property. Increasingly, homes are being built in heavily forested areas on rugged terrain. Forestry and fire departments are challenged with knowing where these new structures are located and planning ways to protect them should a wildfire occur. Careful planning requires accurate GIS data with a means of sharing that data with fire crews as well as other state and federal agencies. XMap as a Forest Fire Prevention and Management. Terry Urness, Assistant Chief of Chelan County Fire District 5 in Washington state was tasked with creating a plan to assess the structures in his fire district. He used DeLorme's XMap Professional Software and Data Suite to create maps and formulate plans in both the Manson and Chelan fire districts. Based on Assistant Chief Urness's planning with XMap, the decision as to which houses get the most assistance in a wildfire has changed from a spur-of-the-moment decision to a strategic area plan. After entering the lat/lon coordinates of existing structures into XMap, Urness created custom color-coded symbols to represent the safety factor level of each building allowing fire crews to quickly assess which structures need immediate attention in the event of a wildfire. This plan also provided Urness with the opportunity to contact people in the highest risk zones and educate them about what steps they should take to reduce the risk of losing their home to a wild fire. According to Urness, XMap software has helped with a variety of firefighting tasks. "One of the things I did with this program was take it out with a GPS attached to a laptop, and map in new roads in our wild land areas. This was a very valuable tool for us when a forest fire entered our fire district last year," said Urness. "I also took my laptop down to the local forest service and set it up with their plotter to make great maps for the incoming fire departments" (Carrell, 2003). The DeLorme XMap Professional Software and Data Suite includes many features that Assistant Chief Urness has found to be useful for his fire district, including the variety of data from satellite imagery, topographic, and road network data to annotation, draw, and print capabilities. Urness said "one of the greatest benefits of the XMap software is its ease of use for people with no formal training in GIS applications" (Carrell, 2003). Creating a forest fire management plan is just the first step in fighting wildfires. XMap becomes an even more powerful tool when the plan must go into effect when wildfires strike. Last season our country experienced some of the largest wildfires ever recorded. During this time the Evergreen, Colorado Volunteer Fire Department used the XMap Professional Software and Data Suite to plot fire perimeters and calculate acres burned in the Hayman, Black Mountain, Blue Mountain, and Schoonover fires. The Fire Chief of the Evergreen Volunteer Fire Department began an initiative last year to upgrade the capabilities of his department to manage wildfires. Charlie Neppell led the initiative and selected DeLorme's XMap software because he could use it to help predict a wildfire's path and then plan a strategy by utilizing the 3-D feature and satellite imagery data. During a fire his crews on the ground are able to see where the safe areas are and focus on buildings in the high-level danger areas. DeLorme's XMap Professional Software and Data Suite provides affordable Geographic Information Management tools for Fire, Public Safety and Search & Rescue applications. Availability and pricing the DeLorme XMap 4.0 Software and Data Suite is available for $199.95. Additional datasets start at $49.95. Add-on software that allows for expanded data exporting capabilities is also available. Leading DeLorme CD-ROM programs include XMap" Handheld Pro, Topo USA" 4.0, Street Atlas USA" 2003, and XMap 4.0. The new Earthmate" USB GPS receiver provides real-time location information and connects to laptop PC computers, as well as Pocket PC and Palm OS handhelds.

The traditional way to train forest fire fighters is with outdoor training which is considered to be very expensive (as many vehicles and airplanes are needed) and also time consuming. In the past the Civil Safety and Defense Department has used a Flight Simulator as a tool for plane guidance training for forest fire fighting. But this method still involved too much paper-based studying and in-field simulation. They needed a more effective tool to simulate real fire fighting actions to train their personnel effectively while also keeping expenses low.

The tools developed by ParallelGraphics were used by the EMI Informatiques company to create a complete collaborative 3D environment for forest fire fighting training. A training session involves around 20 students, each playing a role, with the training covering aspects ranging from ground navigation and map reading to planning and tactics. All users can communicate with each other and see the fire, available transportation and the scenario unfolding (such as water planes bombing the fire) in a 3D simulation. Session managers are able to control certain parameters such as the growth of the fire, the time of day, weather conditions and many others. Such a major shift in the training approach from traditional methods to computer 3D simulation has resulted in rapid returns for the school. The benefits include less outdoor training, more thorough training through simulations, and the ability to offer unusual experiences and scenarios (for example, training participants can take a passenger seat in a plane during the virtual operation and experience what a pilot sees in a real fire), in addition to lower training costs.

EMI Informatiques used ParallelGraphics' Cortona SDK to integrate the Cortona 3D engine into a Microsoft Visual BasicR program that served as the core tool for building the whole application. VrmlPad was used as a 3D design tool and various third party applications were employed for terrain generation, networking and flight dynamics calculation. The software is typically installed on 20 computers that are split into five different groups: session management, tactical displays, ground vehicles, airborne vehicles and various specific interfaces.

This solution is another good example of using Cortona VRML Client and Cortona SDK in training environments. Several different technologies have been combined to create a life-like interactive simulation of real events. The flexibility of Cortona SDK is that it can be used in different programming environments and allows fully customized applications to be built that can be tailored to any needs from products presentations to training simulations and complex Virtual Manuals. By using Cortona SDK companies can enjoy all the benefits of 3D graphics with their favorite software.

As forest fires are spatial processes Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are applied as tools to achieve an operational forest fire management system. Since the Division of Spatial Data Handling (University of Zurich) runs the GIS of the Swiss National Park, the people in charge of it work on three topics: (1) implementation of fire spread modeling in Geographical Information Systems, (2) development of fuel models for Switzerland and introduction to the spread modeling and (3) concepts for forest fire management strategies with special emphasis on protected areas. The overall goal is to provide an interactive Decision Support System which enables the training in a "Fire Simulator" of the people in charge (park authorities, local fire fighters) and the prediction of the damage potential.

Forest Fire Modeling

The basis for the fire behavior modeling is the Rothermel model for the behavior of surface fires (Rothermel, 1972). It calculates for any given point local intensity and spread parameters for the head of a surface fire. Inputs for the model are a two-dimensional wind field, terrain parameters, fuel moisture and a detailed description of the fuel bed. Based on the local behavior output by the Rothermel model and on a model for the local shape of fire spread (Anderson, 1983), the spread from a set of source locations can be simulated. The influence of barriers (streets, rivers, fuel breaks, etc.) is addressed with a probabilistic model based on the width of the barrier and the flame length. The spread simulation also allows the calculation of the flame length on the entire fire perimeter, which in turn is an important index for the success of various types of fire suppression activities (Rothermel, 1983). Once all the required data is available for the Swiss National Park, the model can be used to evaluate different climatic and management scenarios. The fire spread model is implemented in SPARKS, a prototype fire behavior modeling application. It is fully integrated in a commercial Geographical Information System (ARC/INFO), built on its raster modeling and applications development functionalities. This allows not only for synoptic analysis over very large areas, but it enlarges greatly the capabilities of the modeling package through the availability of the full range of the GIS' database and spatial analysis functions

Damage Potential

Through the integration of fire behavior models with GIS models, new insights in the fire danger situation in a management area can be gained. One example is the damage potential that arises from fires starting at a certain point in the landscape. This potential clearly depends on the proximity of the point to sensitive objects and areas like buildings, railway lines, fire-sensitive ecosystems, etc. Proximity is a concept which is used in a great many GIS-related models. However, in the mentioned example proximity can not be modeled as straight line distance, but it must take into account the behavior of the fire spreading over the landscape. In this approach, the spread simulation is used to calculate the time it takes a fire starting from any point in the landscape to reach an object, under given environmental conditions. This is accomplished by inverting the spread simulation, working from a reached object backwards to all possible sources. The delay times from any point to all objects can then be input to a potential model, used in the GIS realm for assessing accessibility. The model weighs the influence of any reached object on the point's damage potential based on the delay time and the damage susceptibility of the object. The index for the fire damage potential arising from the point is then obtained by simply adding the weighted influences of all objects. This index could be further combined with fire occurrence estimations, probability for early detection, accessibility etc. To give a more complete image of the fire danger situation.

Sensitivity Analysis

Many of the input parameters for the fire behavior model must be modeled or gathered in extensive field surveys. In order to allocate resources required for the collection of these inputs and to assess the uncertainty introduced in the model results due to uncertain inputs, sensitivity and error analysis with Monte-Carlo Simulation can be performed. This allows the examination in tabular form or graphically of the relative importance of each input parameter for a selected output. Also, the uncertainty in the calculated fire behavior can be calculated for interactively selected points, based on estimated uncertainties of the input parameters.

Early Detection Tools

Reliable and accurate data sources have been identified for this early warning system and simple-to -use data processing system has been developed. To adequately respond to the early warning information, a prevention concept with short-term and long-term fire prevention measures has been developed for the Province of East Kalimantan. To ensure that both, the early warning and the prevention system are functional, effective and efficient the improvement of the policy framework conditions for the management have been supported and decentralized institutional and communication structures have been built up. Education, training and extension concepts have been developed to increase awareness of the public about fire issues and to train government institutions and communities to correctly interpret the early warning information received and to make sure that they react accordingly.

The early warning system developed for East Kalimantan uses two tools:

The Fire Danger Rating Index (FDR) based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Code. The route calculation of the Fire Danger Rating Index (FDR) needs only the following weather data: daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily rainfall. The few input data necessary and a simple calculation method for the FDR makes it a very useful tool to have rapid information about changing fire danger conditions on a daily basis. The FDR index used in East Kalimantan has proven to be a suitable tool to predict and reflect correctly the fire danger conditions in East Kalimantan. During all catastrophic fire events in the El Nino years since 1978 the FDR showed also the highest fire danger index values.

The Preparedness Level which is defined by the actual FDR, the actual fire occurrences, the actual weather forecast, haze conditions and hot temperature events (hot spots) detected by using NOAA-AVHRR data. This fire preparedness level is determined with a scoring method, each factors having a score according to its actual conditions. The Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) for each preparedness level (normal, level III, level II and level I as the highest alert level) have been legalized by a decree of the provincial government of East Kalimantan in the year 2003. Due to the different roles and responsibilities of government institutions and communities in fire management different SOP have been developed. Government institutions have the responsibility to gather information, disseminate information, monitor and coordinate while communities have to carry out their activities involving the use of fire, accordingly to the preparedness level issued by government institutions (restricted use of fire, no use of fore for the time of high fire risks).

Due to the absence of weather data for remote areas in East Kalimantan dynamic fire risk mapping is dome to assess more precisely the fire risks of remote areas. The fire risk mapping is done to assess more precisely the fire risks of remote areas. The fire risk mapping used in East Kalimantan includes, apart of the weather data, information on infrastructure such as settlements, roads and rivers; actual land use data, vegetation type and actual conditions of the vegetation, actual fire damage classification, NOAA NDVI and NOAA hot temperature events detection. In future NOAA-AVHRR thermal channels will also be used to include land surface temperature in dynamic fire risk mapping. This method currently being tested could be a cheap and extremely valuable alternative for many countries facing the same problem of lacking sufficient meteorological stations to adequately assess their fire risks.

The Forest Fire Fighting Team

The goal of the fire fight team is to minimize the total cost due to the fire. This means that the fire should be put out in the most cost effective way. Methods to control forest fires follow the following plan:

Create fire lines which stop the fire from spreading across particular boundaries. Since the size of the area enclosed by fire lines is lost, it should be minimized.

Decrease the speed with which the fire spreads by dropping water bombs in order to make part one successful.

The fire manager is a special kind of agent which is responsible for making and coordinating the plans of the agents. A fire manager is responsible for the first attack and for allocating resources. The first attack plays an important role, since if it is successful, then the fire can be handled easily. If it is not successful, then the fire may become uncontrollable, although the fire can still be managed. Once the fire is signaled, the following steps are made:

The behavior of the fire is simulated.

The fire manager evaluated the situation and designs a number of fire lines; usually 2 or 3 which stop the fire front from advancing.

The Fire manager selects and allocates resources (agent teams/equipment) for solving each sub-plan.

The resources are brought to their starting place and execute their plans.

Ground Agents

Although in reality there are various types of agents, one can start with a single ground agent type which can only cut fire lines. The ground agents can be considered as a team of five persons equipped with chainsaws. They are sent to their starting position by air from a specific resource base. At each time step, ground agents select one out of ten possible actions: an action consists of a direction for moving (including standby) and the decision whether the agents wants to cut a fire line or not. The ground agents are characterized by their traveling speed and cutting speed. The cost of using ground agents is calculated by the time they have worked and the distance the helicopter has to travel to bring them and pick them up. Finally, there is a large penalty for cases in which ground agents are caught by the fire and accidents take place.

The team consists furthermore of a number of airplanes which can move to each of the four directions at high speed and a drop a water bomb. The positions on which water is distributed after dropping a water bomb depends on the direction and speed of the airplane. The most effective place to drop water is in front of the fire. The effect is that water bombed cells will have their flying speed, landing time, taking off time, refilling time, and the size of the water reservoir. The cost of putting them into operation depends on the total distance traveled and the number of landings.

Reinforcement Learning

Planning is one approach to solve the problem. Given a simulated fire a plan can be made using information about the expected time needed by a group of agents to cut a fire line and the expected time the fire takes to arrive at these lines. However, planning in stochastic dynamic environments is very difficult. It may happen that after designing a plan, the environment changes in an unexpected way so that the plan cannot be executed. Therefore, for such environments repeated planning is necessary as new information arrives, which can be computationally very costly.

Instead of planning, one can also learn reactive policies. Such policies map inputs to actions and react immediately to changes in the environment. To search for policies one will use reinforcement learning or RL algorithms (Watkins, 1989). RL methods learn from trail and error to predict the total expected cost of particular situations. The policy uses these predictions to select actions which are expected to lead to the least expected future cost. RL learners are online decision makers. Thus, instead of using a prior simulation of the fire and basing the decision on this simulation, decisions are made as the simulations is running. This makes it possible to immediately react to changes of the environment without the need for any re-planning.

The performance of the team is evaluated by using a cost function. This cost function assigns costs to burned tree areas, to burned assets and to all actions executed by the teams, helicopters and airplanes. By using the cost function, each change (time step) of the environment can be evaluated, and summing over all steps makes a long-term evaluation of the team's performance possible. One has to note that one cannot use hill climbing on the cost function for decision making. In RL the goal is to minimize the long-term cost in order to support human decision making for this complex task, since the problem involves many interacting sub-process for example multiple fires can happen at once, which makes long-term cost estimation of different plans very difficult for human experts.

2.3.2.Urban Fire Departments and Management

2.3.3New Technologies and Training Programs

Chapter 3:

Methodology

3.1.Introduction

This research was conducted to study fire management systems in forest and urban settings that had certain technologies available to complete the job. This research focused on four countries exploring the differences between the technological influences and training programs and looked at the results of both such prevention tactics to see which was more successful. These studies were mainly conducted in developed countries of differing terrains and urban populations. A qualitative descriptive methodology was used to evaluate and to measure each intervention's performance and success rate. This study offered such western data to act as a basis of analysis when looking at these intervention methods as they pertain to the global crisis. The study allows for not only this foundation of western statistics but also a focus on Indonesian data. These collections of data were used for research purposes only. The qualitative descriptive methodology was used to evaluate the data, which, was collected during this study.

3.2.Design and Measurement

Task 1: Literature review of fire management systems, its definitions and prevention strategies involving technologies like GPS and training programs in general will be researched. More specifically an investigation into the relationship between fire management and technologies and the relationship between fire management and training programs involving available technology will be performed with focus on discovering which prevention is most effective for reducing forest and urban fires. Articles, research reports, journal papers will be collected for that purpose. The literature will be comprehensive by covering both local and international experience.

Task 2: Selecting the Subjects

For the purpose of this paper, the subjects for this study ranged within the applicable criteria set fourth by each individual study investigated. Due to the available studies both internationally and local to the global problem and each organizational focus, the subjects varied but had many attributes in common to facilitate the completion of the data collection. These subjects represent a cross section of both Western and global populations of both forest and urban demographics. Originally, the intent of this project was to focus on fire management in forest and urban settings while looking at the influences of available technologies and training to these fire fighters. The literature review also looked different policies put into place by the different governments perused for the study.

Task 4: Analyzing the results

The last step on this research will be analyzing the data results. To do so, all data and accompanying studies will be analyzed. After such analysis is achieved, a section of this project will be dedicated to the implications of fire management and possible recommendations for future research.

Task 5: Final report and defense

At the end of this research, a better understanding of fire management systems will be achieved. Also a careful investigation of two settings and the technologies and training available to these settings will be explored. The final report will be ready and will be presented upon completion.

3.3.Procedure

As part of any scientific study, it is important to achieve a baseline of study. In other words, it is important that the subjects selected be assessed before continuing the study.

3.4.Validity of Data

3.5.Originality of Limitations of Data

Chapter 4:

Results and Findings

4.1.Analysis

This analysis below will act as a basis and foundation for the study of fire fighting when compared with forest and urban fire settings. It has become clear over the duration of this study that the two preventions need each other as solutions to the fire epidemic must be diversified in nature for success rates to be permanent. The statistical data presented below reflects how fire is an equal opportunity force. As areas of the world embrace western culture as a form globalization, the impact of these changes in culture and lifestyle become apparent as fires become more rapid. As a result, the data below not only suggests fire is a problem in western culture like the United States and Europe but also areas of the Asia Pacific region more specifically countries in Southeast Asia and Indonesia. This data suggests the importance of intervention on a grand scale and focuses on technologies carrying greater impact than training alone.

4.2.Descriptive Statistics

Forest Fire Management Systems and New Technology

Through the FRA 2000 process, FAO was able to close out the 20th Century by instituting a system for collecting meaningful fire data for developing countries. Although the submission of wildfire data on fire numbers, area burned and causes fell short of expectations, the importance of regularly recording and evaluating such information has been established with Member countries. Strategic advantages accrue to countries when they regularly report, record, evaluate and disseminate fire statistics on national, regional and global levels. Examples have been presented in this report demonstrating that even the most basic annual information on area burned by wildfires can provide insights into making appropriate fire management program adjustments directed at more sustainable resource management.

In addition, many countries are seeking ways to improve their fire management organization by instituting a more comprehensive fire protection system. It is apparent in observing the results of fire database development efforts like those enacted by Silva Mediterranea that individual country data needs can be met while still providing a consistent format in regional reporting. In addition, the Silva Mediterranea process underscores the value of establishing the initial database with basic and essential information, with the realization that more complex requirements can be added at a later time. Another principle demonstrated by Mediterranean countries is that an effective fire database is dependent on countries developing an internal commitment to regularly recording and reporting fire statistics to satisfy national and regional needs.

This assessment of the global forest fire situation revealed strengths and weaknesses associated with sustaining the health and productivity of the world's forests when threatened by drought, wildfires and an increasing demand for natural resources. Before describing some of the positive outcomes in more detail, it may be instructive to enumerate the current state of fire management practices throughout the different regions:

Wildfires during drought years continue to cause serious impacts to natural resources, public health, transportation, navigation and air quality over large areas. Tropical rain forests and cloud forests that typically do not burn on a large scale have been devastated by wildfires during the 1990s.

Many countries, and regions, have a well-developed system for documenting, reporting and evaluating wildfire statistics in a systematic manner. However, many fire statistics do not provide sufficient information on the damaging and beneficial effects of wild land fires.

Satellite systems have been used effectively to map active fires and burned areas, especially in remote areas where other damage assessment capabilities are not available.

Some countries still do not have a system in place to annually report number of fires and area burned in a well-maintained database, often because other issues like food security and poverty are more pressing.

Even those countries supporting highly financed fire management organizations are not exempt from the ravages of wildfires in drought years. When wild land fuels have accumulated to high levels, no amount of firefighting resources can make much of a difference until the weather moderates (as observed in the United States in the 2000 fire season).

Uncontrolled use of fire for forest conversion, agricultural and pastoral purposes continues to cause a serious loss of forest resources, especially in tropical areas.

Some countries are beginning to realize that inter-sectoral coordination of land use policies and practices is an essential element in reducing wildfire losses.

Examples exist where sustainable land use practices and the participation of local communities in integrated forest fire management systems are being employed to reduce resource losses from wildfires.

In some countries, volunteer rural fire brigades are successful in responding quickly and efficiently to wildfires within their home range; and residents are taking more responsibility to ensure that homes will survive wildfires.

Although prescribed burning is being used in many countries to reduce wildfire hazards and achieve resource benefits, other countries have prohibitions against the use of prescribed fire.