Domestic Terrorism Research Reports Over the Last

Domestic Terrorism Research Reports

Over the last decade, the threat of terrorist attacks within the United States has become more and more prominent, beginning with the destruction of the World Trade Center in 2001 and continuing through the economic downturn and historical election of Barack Obama. However, the ideologies motivating the different terrorist threats are various and distinct, a fact that can be seen when comparing the New York Police Department's 2007 examination of radicalization in the West with the Department of Homeland Security's 2009 report regarding the increased threat from rightwing extremists. The NYPD's report focuses on the radicalization of U.S. residents or citizens motivated by jihadist or jihadi-Salafi ideology, and identifies four distinct phases of radicalization visible in a number of cases in which residents and citizens of Western countries became radicalized before continuing on to plan or participate in an attack on their home country. Whereas the NYPD report is attempting to explain a particular phenomenon after the fact, the Department of Homeland Security report discusses how the present economic, political, and social climate bear certain features indicating a likely increase in rightwing extremist recruiting and activity. In particular, the economic downturn as well as the election of the first African-American president created conditions echoing the 1990s, in which rightwing extremism saw a catastrophic rise, culminating in the 1993 bombing of the Oklahoma City Federal Building. By comparing and contrasting these two reports, one may begin to understand the multiple and varied terrorist threats facing the United States, as well as the way in which different law enforcement organizations attempt to study, predict, and ultimately forestall these threats.

The NYPD report attempted to address the reasons behind a spate of attacks, successful or simply planned, which were not conducted by foreign terrorists or otherwise led by al-Qaeda, but were rather executed and planned by residents or citizens of the target country, often with little to no contact or instruction from foreign sources. In order to examine "the radicalization process in the West that drives 'unremarkable' people to become terrorists," the study compared a number of cases of radicalization in other countries before testing their conclusions against situations in the United States, and finally the cell responsible for the 9/11 attacks (Silber & Bhatt, 2007, p. 5). The NYPD examined five instances of homegrown extremism: "Madrid's 3/11/04 attack, Amsterdam's Hofstad Group, the London-Leeds 7/7/05 attack, Australia's Operation Pendennis which thwarted an attack(s) in November 2005 and Canada's Toronto 18 Case, which thwarted an attack in June 2006" (p. 15). The department performed a quantitative analysis on each of the five cases after sending "detectives and analysts to meet with law enforcement, intelligence officials and academics at each of these locations" (p. 15). In particular, the report sought to uncover new information regarding terrorism not covered in previous reports, and so instead of relying on previous reports and studies, collected as much data regarding the activities of the terrorists prior to radicalization as well as throughout the process.

After examining the five foreign cases, the NYPD report compared the visible patterns of behavior with five cases of homegrown terrorism in the United States: "Lackawana, New York, Portland, Oregon and Northern Virginia) as well as two New York City cases (34th Street/Herald Square and the radicalization of two al-Muhajiroun members" (p. 15). When compiled, all of the cases showed a clear process of radicalization with four distinct phases, and each phase was visible in the radicalization of terrorists in case, both foreign and domestic (p. 7). The report's conclusions seem to be born out by the data collected, because in each instance the radicalized resident or citizen was discovered to have progressed from a pre-radicalized state to self-identification with the cause of jihadist ideology, a subsequent indoctrination into that ideology (often achieved via the internet), and finally jihadization (p.7-8). Thus, the NYPD's framework for understanding the process of radicalization not only explained the process behind the attacks and plots considered, but also offered a predictive tool for thwarting future attacks before they can even reach the serious planning stages.

Rather than responding to particular plots or attacks, the Department of Homeland Security report addressed recent economic, political, and social developments which echo some of the same conditions which precipitated the growth of rightwing extremists in the 1990s. The report not only reviewed conditions during the 1990s, but also a 2007 report showing that parental poverty may help contribute to a child's eventual belief in rightwing extremist ideologies ("Rightwing extremism," 2009, p. 4). The report used qualitative analysis to determine the likelihood of rightwing extremism growing in influence as a result of the economic downturn and the election of the first African-American president, finding that these "present unique drivers for rightwing radicalization and recruitment" due to the fact that "rightwing extremists have capitalized on the election of the first African-American president, and are focusing their efforts to recruit new members, mobilize existing supporters, and broaden their scope and appeal through propaganda" in what is ultimately "a fertile recruiting environment" as a result of "the consequences of a prolonged economic downturn -- including real estate foreclosures, unemployment, and an inability to obtain credit" (p. 2).

The majority of the report's conclusions come from the similarities between the current situation and the 1990s, especially "the militia movement's opposition to gun control efforts, criticism of free trade agreements (particularly those with Mexico), […] perceived government infringement on civil liberties as well as white supremacists' longstanding exploitation of social issues such as abortion, inter-racial crimes, and same-sex marriage" (p. 4). However, there are some differences, because the length and hardship of the two ongoing wars has greatly increased the likelihood of so-called "lone wolf" attacks being carried out by individuals with the training and access to weaponry necessary for a truly devastating attack (p. 7). The report's conclusions were largely supported by the data presented, because the similarities between contemporary America and the 1990s are so visible, but also due to the fact that the report makes no claims toward predicting the behavior of specific groups or discussing individual attacks or plots, instead remaining content to note the recurring conditions conducive for rightwing extremism.