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The unemployment rate is supposed to stay stable and be estimated as 5,2% in 2005, 5,1% in 2006 and stay the same in 2007, thus signaling that there will be no improvement in the employment situation in the country. As for the interest rate, the return on Treasure Bills with ten years to maturity is forecasted to be at the level of 4,7% in 2005, 5,3% in 2006 and 5,6% in 2007, thus to be growing. The housing starting is projected not to grow by the Mortgage Bakers' Association, and is forecasted at 1,958 millions units in 2005, 1,758 in 2006 and 1,730 in 2007. This forecast may be biased because of the wish to signal the tightening supply in the property market to the consumers and thus stimulate the demand for property which will lead to the increases in the real estate prices. This will give opportunity to the members of mortgage association to make profits. Another tendency which may be forecasted by them in their favor, is the growing interest rates on Treasury bills to 4,6% in 2005 and 5,2% in 2006. The projected fixed 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is assumed to grow to 6,2% in 2005, 6,9% in 2006 and 7,3% in 2007.
Taking into consideration the forecasts, for the firm planning issuing long-time debt for capital or other investment, it could be a great idea to borrow money now as the long-term interest rate is expected to be increasing in the following yeas. Also, for firms producing consumer goods or services, the careful expansion of the production may be a good idea as the...
Also, with the expected speeding up inflation, the decreasing amount of cash holdings by the firm and cash investments into production would be reasonable.
References
Economic and Financial Development in 2004 and Early 2005, the Federal Reserve Board, available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/2005/february/ReportSection2.htm
Economic Report of the President, (2005), at http://a257.g.akamaitech.net/7/257/2422/17feb20051700/www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/2005/2005_erp.pdf
Nuttin, R. (April, 21, 2005). U.S. jobless claims plunge to 296,000. Marketwatch. At http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0CCF58D9%2D9E2D%2D4C17%2DAF6E%2D076B3BF0BC2C%7D&siteid=mktw
Economic Forecast and Calendar, Marketwatch, at http://www.marketwatch.com/news/economy/economic_calendar.asp?cbsReferrer=
Economic forecasts, at http://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/
Economic Cycles Research Institute, (http://www.businesscycle.com/)
Mortgage Bankers' Association, (http://www.mortgagebankers.com)
Economic and Financial Development in 2004 and Early 2005, the Federal Reserve Board, available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/2005/february/ReportSection2.htm
Economic Report of the President, 2005, available at http://a257.g.akamaitech.net/7/257/2422/17feb20051700/www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/2005/2005_erp.pdf
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