Government Iraq Is Certainly a Terribly Divided

¶ … Government

Iraq is certainly a terribly divided society and outside political forces like Al Qaeda have certainly been attempting to exploit and exacerbate these religious and ethnic conflicts in order to turn it into a failed state. For practical purposes, the most significant divisions are between the Kurds and the Sunni and Shiite Muslims, with the Shiites having a clear majority of about 70% of the population. During the civil wars of the last eight years, Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites largely separated and segregated themselves, while other minority groups like the Christians have been terrorized by extremists and driven out of the country. Up to the 1950s, Iraq also had a large Jewish community but they were almost all expelled decades ago and are hardly likely to return. This is hardly an ideal situation, to put it mildly, and the chances of Iraq ever becoming a multiethnic, middle-class democracy would seem to be nil. Since the Kurds and Sunnis already have considerable local and regional autonomy in their separate enclaves, then the best solution would simply be to recognize in a formal or legal-constitutional sense that Iraq is really a loose confederation rather than a unified nation state. A national government and parliament will continue to exist and control foreign affairs, but the semi-independent regions will be free to establish their own cultural, religious, educational and political institutions.

Iraq has no real democratic traditions, of course, but under any conceivable representative or political party system, either parliamentary or federalist, the Shiites are going to have a majority and control the government. From a realistic viewpoint, they have the numbers and will therefore have most of the levers of power in their hands. This will be always be the case under any constitutional and legal arrangements that provides for legitimate elections, as long the people vote along religious and ethnic lines rather than social class. In the past when the country was a monarchy or military dictatorship, the minority Sunni Arabs controlled the state, economy, military and the Baath Party -- the only party that was allowed. Over the last eight years, they have demonstrated that they are distinctly unwilling to live as a minority under Shiite rule. Assuming that the goal is not to put another absolute monarch or military dictator in power, the only real hope for stability and development in Iraq is a kind of Swiss-confederation model in which the minority regions have considerable local autonomy and self-government. A national constitution and legal system might protect minority rights on paper, but in Iraq these legal institutions are corrupt and dysfunctional and may not really become effective for many years, if ever.

In the north, the Kurdish region already has complete autonomy in everything but name and the avowed goal of the Kurds is the establishment an independent state. Although they are Sunni Muslims in religion, their language, culture and traditions are not Arabic and they consider themselves a separate people. Only the opposition of neighboring states like Turkey, which also have large Kurdish minorities demanding autonomy, has prevented Kurdistan from becoming independent already. Given the reality that they have broken off from the rest of Iraq and have no desire to reunite with it, the best policy would be to leave well enough alone and let them continue as an autonomous, self-governing region. At least the Kurds have kept Al Qaeda out of their territory and ensured that it has no real security problems.