Forecasting methods and applications

Environmental Conditions Impacting Organizational Forecasting Organizational planning will be heavily dependent upon the ability of administrative decision-makers to properly forecast challenges and transitions. This is an already complex undertaking given the inherent uncertainty of the business world. However, today, with environmental matters becoming ever more apparent economic and political effectors, it is necessary to consider here the types of environmental conditions are likely to impact organizational forecasting. Of course, among the most pressing of issues which is most immediately apparent is the rising price and scarcity of fossil fuels. The price of crude oil regularly reaches record highs, causing a broad inflation of commodities which inherently impacts the whole array of expenses with which organizations must contend. This includes resources, transportation and the powering of facilities. The result is a serious instability in relative costs of operation, requiring serious forecast elasticity in order to obtain projections of any long term value. Another directly related environmental condition which is increasingly coming to the fore is the usage of space and its impact on resource distribution. Namely, the response in some instances to fuel scarcity has been the attempt to transition to biofuels, which is creating a problem that impacts organizations of every kind. Accordingly, Butler (2008) argues that "the latest econometric models for alternative fuels show us their negative environmental impact, particularly with feedstocks that destroy palm farms or the rainforest. There is also a negative economic impact in the form of rising food prices. In addition, it's important to remember that even if we use all the arable land in the United States for alternative-fuel production, we'll only be able to replace a fraction of the diesel fuel the nation currently uses." (p. 1) This has caused a degree of real forecasting uncertainty for organizations which are seeking proper paths in an increasingly globalized market. Insofar as many of the nations now impacted so drastically by the food scarcity crisis are also those developing theatres in which globalizing companies have sought to operate, it is becoming more difficult all the time to find an appropriate context for operation. Thus, organizations pursuing offshore production interests, outsourced service laborers and overseas contract management must immerse themselves in many settings where poverty, instability and widespread suffering are all increasingly characteristic. Forecasting organizational performance and opportunity under these terms is marked by challenge. So too is this case in navigating the uncertainties of legal policy concerning environmental conditions. Under the Bush Administration, we have experienced a significant decline in standard protections for both dumping and emissions, due to the president's composition of ironically entitled bills such as the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act. Both of these, in spite of their titles, were marked for their historical roll- backs of already existent environmental protection standards. This is a condition which impacts the decisions and costs of large organizations, effecting competition and resource expenses. Thus, it is even more obfuscating of future policy outcomes that now, "New York and 13 other states have sued the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, claiming it violated the Clean Air Act by not toughening ozone pollution standards enough.." (Reuters, 1) To both ends, it is evident that policy plays a determinant role in the way that the environmental conditions are experienced by organizations. The result is that forecasting costs of operation and other intangibles related to market outcomes of policy decisions is a serious challenge. Works Cited