Epidemic Theory of Crime

¶ … Smith and Kidron, the end of the Cold War ironically initiated a series of belligerent conflicts across the globe. The international news media reported shocking brutality that ravaged Bosnia-Herzegovina, Chechnya, and especially in Rwanda, where nearly 800,000 people were slaughtered during the brief six-week period in 1994. Despite the sharp increase in human casualties lost to warfare, states hardly lifted a finger to stop it. Budgets for military spending were curtailed, the production of nuclear weapons slowed, and the United Nations embarked on more peace operations than ever before. However, the events of September 11 abruptly terminated the United States' passivity; policymakers quickly approved dramatically increased budgets for military operations while thousands of troops boarded ships and airplanes to be dropped off in the most perilous war zone of the new millennium. Though incessant warfare may seem inevitable in many parts of the world, including Georgia and Iraq, there is evidence to suggest that prominent leaders such as Mikheil Saakashvili, the recently appointed President of Georgia, and James Dobbins, special United States envoy for Afghanistan and author of the newly released book, America's Role in Nation Building: from Germany to Iraq, may be capable of reversing this trend.

The crisis in Georgia embodies the strong sense of fear that Smith and Kidron purported to arise from the attacks on World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Instead of bracing itself against a potential nuclear attack from the world's other predominant state during the Cold War, the United States today instead bases its foreign policy on protecting itself from comparatively smaller and less well equipped terrorist factions. The Chechen separatists have aligned themselves with sworn enemies of the United States, including Iraq, Iran, and North Korea, all of whom are members of what President George W. Bush call the "axis of evil," in addition to China. This proclaimed disdain of the Chechen rebels particularly holds after October 2002, when 50 Chechen fighters seized control of a theatre on Moscow to hold 700 patrons hostage. Russian special forces killed the remaining guerillas; however, during the attempt to save the hostages, 100 perished as a result of the gases released by Russian soldiers.

Despite the perpetual chaos that has plagued Georgia since the dismantlement of the Soviet empire, this small state is showing signs that it may be willing to trade warfare for peace. Mikheil Saakashvili, a native Georgian who was educated in the United States, was invited back to his home to help rebuild the shattered former Soviet Republic. Though his methods appear to be drastic, and even potentially dangerous, Saakashvili only does what is necessary to establish order within his home state.

Determined to purge the corruption that has crippled the ministry, Saakashvili continually challenged the incumbents who pleaded for him to return. Despite their eagerness to have Saakashvili working within the state government, the ministers stubbornly rejected his ideas. Undeterred, Saakashvili led 500,000 protestors to the presidential residence. He delivered a non-negotiable demand and walked out a few minutes later with Shevardnadze's resignation and the undisputed status s the country's new political leader. In order to maintain his coalition, Saakashvili is organizing a power-sharing arrangement with Nino Burdzhanadze, the parliament speaker who is now serving as interim president. According to this arrangement, Burdzhanadze would remain as head of the legislature, and Zurab Zhvania, the third opposition leader, would join the government, possibly as minister of state. On November 26, Saakashvili announced his candidacy for president, and officially closed the power-sharing deal with Burdzhanadze as leader of the next legislature, and Zhvania as interim state minister and later prime minister, a newly created position.

Establishing Saakashvili as President would not only be beneficial to Georgia, but to the United States as well. It would make him the most Americanized national leader ever seen in the former Soviet Union outside the Baltic states. After completing his studies at George Washington University, Saakashvili earned a degree from Columbia Law School. He once said, "I was really raised on American democracy, not only my studies but much more. JFK is my idol." Due to his avid support of the United States, Saakashvili would certainly want to establish a strong relationship with his adopted country, if only to promote the vitality of his homeland. Although he has employed directly confrontational tactics to establish himself within the government, advocates such as Alexander Lomaia, executive director of the Open Society Georgia Foundation, declare that he has only posed a threat to those who contributed to the dysfunctional operation of governmental affairs.

Iraq is certainly another example of how a state has fallen victim to incessant warfare in part to the end of the Cold War. The abrupt withdrawal of Soviet forces in neighboring states like Afghanistan in essence created utter chaos, a perfect environment for dictatorships such as that of Saddam Hussein to seize control. The United States, particularly during the administration of George W. Bush, has taken a unilateral approach in the attempt to overthrow the absolute regime. Smith and Kidron allude to the argument that this method may be ineffective by saying that "America's international agenda will be heavily influenced by what others do," meaning that international organizations such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United Nations (UN) must play an integral role in order for the United States to achieve their goals abroad.

James Dobbins is also an advocate for a multilateral approach to American foreign policy. He contends that the Bush administration would have been better prepared for the aftermath of its military campaign in Iraq if it had heeded the lessons of the United States' perpetual peacekeeping efforts in the Balkans. Dobbins believes that the current administration is modeling its foreign policy after the American occupation of Germany and Japan after World War II. As stated by Dobbins himself,