Effects of exchange rate fluctuations on international trade and tourism

Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Forex's opening trade on February 14, 2012 for the U.S. Dollar- Euro was one Dollar for .7593 Euros (Google Finance.com. February 14, 2012). Over the period covering the "Great Recession" and the subsequent recovery, the Euro has moved in a yo-yo pattern, at times buoyed by a weak dollar policy of the U.S., and alternately battered by a flight to safety as investors seek the relative strength of the world's reserve currency. Most recently the Dollar- Euro trade has seen the impact of a contagion sovereign debt crisis which has caused vicissitude swings in the currency trade. At the core of these movements however, is the fundamental question of what are the causes and factors of exchange rate fluctuations, and ultimately who are the beneficiaries?

Causes and Factors of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

When discussing the exchange rate there are two components; the nominal exchange rate and the real. The former referring to "the rate at which a person can trade the currency of one country for the currency of another" (Mankiw, G.N. 2004), while the latter is " the rate at which a person can trade the goods and services of one country for the goods and services of another" (Mankiw, G.N. 2004). While the nominal exchange rate of one Dollar for .7593 Euros (Google Finance.com. February 14, 2012) garners the headline attention, it is the real exchange rate which is "a key determinant of how much a country exports and imports" (Mankiw, G.N. 2004). The practical application of the exchange rate is the appreciation or depreciation of a currency and the impact of that move on the affordability of goods and services.

Economists cite multiple factors for the movement of currencies relative to one another: inflation differentials, interest rate differentials, current account deficits, public debt, and political stability-economic performance (Investopedia.com. July 23, 2010). In the context of the Dollar-Euro trade, only a few of these factors directly play into the determination of the exchange rate. Inflation differentials mean very little due to the fact that Eurozone inflation year over year is averaging 2.748%, while the U.S.is averaging 2.96% (Global Rates.com. 2012). If there were a significant differential in inflation, lower inflation nations would have comparably stronger currencies. Interest rate differentials also have negligible impact in the Dollar-Euro currency trade. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have kept short-term interest rates under one percent for several years to encourage borrowing and liquidity. A large differential would indicate the country with higher rates would experience higher capital inflows and a currency appreciation. Both the Eurozone and U.S. run considerable current account deficits, the former 100 billion U.S. dollars in 2011 (Feldstein, M. November 30, 2011), while the latter experienced a 110 billion deficit in the third quarter of 2011 (U.S. Department of Commerce. 2012).