Exponential population growth and mathematical modeling

Exponential Population Growth & its Effects

Today, the human population of the world is over six billion. There are fears that it might double in this century. This rapid growth in population means little to most people living in this world but it's a phenomenon that should be a cause of concern of all and sundry. It is however strange that among the people living in different parts of the world very few know the population of the world, of their nation, or of the state where they reside. They don't know why they should. No authority has ever told them it was important to know those numbers, except to say that, in general, the more people the better. No one has ever told them that, unless people only replace themselves, unless couples on average have no more than two children, population will grow ever faster, compounding like money in the bank to unimaginably large numbers, a phenomenon called exponential population growth. The human population reached a figure of about 2,000,000,000 and it took from the start of the human history to industrial revolution around 1945 for the human species to reach to this figure. If we then look at the figures after 1945 then we would realize that this figure has more than doubled and even tripled. There is a fear that if left uncontrolled and if this figure keeps on growing exponentially then this could reach a total of 9,000,000,000 during the rest of our lifetimes.

Environmental Effects

Rapid increase in population worldwide had a greater geological impact visible to all. The worst impact of population explosion has shown itself through global warming, which is already having harmful effects. The harmful effects of changes in environment are creating problems in areas where there might not be an issue of over population. For example, in Arctic regions, structures built atop permafrost are collapsing. Polar ice is melting, releasing freshwater flows that may alter the great ocean circulations, changing climates, temperatures, and agricultural production over vast areas. Also, high mountain glaciers and snowfields are no longer reliable sources of spring river flows, so that water for agriculture does not arrive at the time and in the quantities most needed. Environmental problems have always been man made, but never before on such a scale. Forest encroachment, deforestation, fuel-wood depletion, soil erosion, declining fish and animal stocks, inadequate and unsafe water and air pollution are some of the problems that environment is facing due to over population. There is a constant debate about the relationship between population and environmental degradation. "The population continues to grow until the available resources are consumed. After that point in time a die-off occurs. The magnitude of the die-off and the amount of habitat damage (affecting the resource base for survivors of the future) reflects in part the degree of excess population above capacity prior to the die-off. For example, small group of 25 reindeer were released on the 41 square-mile Saint Paul Island off the coast of Alaska in 1911 (Scheffer, 1951). The reindeer grazed primarily on lichens which were abundant at the time of release and the population expanded exponentially until 1938, when the lichens became overgrazed. With the destruction of their food supply, the population plummeted to only eight animals in 1950" ('the Subversive & Conservative Science').

Health, Food & Education

Overpopulation or population explosion also results in high fertility which in turn harms the health of mother & children. It increases the health risks of pregnancy, and closely spaced births have been shown to reduce birth weight and increase child mortality rates.

Feeding the world's population is made more difficult by rapid population growth. New technologies of production must be introduced more rapidly as the best lands have already been cultivated. International food relief program have become widespread with population explosion.

It is generally agreed that large family size & low incomes restrict the opportunities of parents to educate their children. At the national level, rapid population growth causes given educational expenditures to be spread more thinly, lowering quality for the sake of quantity. This in turn feeds back on economic growth because the stock of human capital is reduced by rapid population growth.

Urbanization

Earth also witnessed a phenomenon of urbanization or shifting of population toward cities. The increase in the number of cities has been associated with that of repeated ecological disaster. Rapid regional deforestation, the depletion of ground-water aquifers, accelerated soil erosion, plant genetic simplification, periodic outbreaks of disease among pest species and domesticated animals, large-scale human malnutrition, and the development and spread of epidemics are some of the results we have witnessed as a result of unbridled population explosion in cities. Ecological decline in many of cities have resulted in the overall deterioration of the environment, geography and quality of life.

Resources Issue & Sustainability

The fact that the world population is rapidly approaching six billion and is having a detrimental impact upon the world's natural resources is now worrying the people at the helm of affairs. Both national and international policy makers worry whether the earth can sustain the rapid growth in population particularly in certain underdeveloped regions of the world. Depletion of natural resources through overuse and destruction of ecosystems by development and pollution seriously threaten the survival of the planet and so the issue of sustainability is raised. "Less developed countries will increase in population from 4.4 billion in 2000 to an estimated 7.7 billion in 2050 (according to UN projections). In contrast, populations of more developed countries are expected to remain around 1.2 billion, due to fertility levels near replacement levels. Even with some improvements in current technologies, the projected increase in developing countries will put severe strains on ecological and economic systems" (Recon, 2004). In order to ensure sustainability different policies need to be adopted. Stringent conservation of resources and reduced demand is one way of achieving environmental sustainability.