Forecasting Terrorism

Americans have worried more about terrorism since the September 11th attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon in 2001. In reality, 9-11 was not the start of major terrorist activity against the United States. Al-Qaeda and extremists groups allied with Osama bin Laden pledged to destroy American interests years before, and had already tried once before, in 1993, to destroy the World Trade Center, which they viewed as representation of American pride and power.

Forecasting terrorism is not very difficult in the Internet age, especially when those committed to perpetrate it against you are very vocal about their intentions, publicizing them throughout the Islamic world and broadcasting their intentions in public statements on video tapes disseminated over the Internet. According to the direct statements of Al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, and other terrorists intent on harming the U.S., they have every intention of launching subsequent attacks on this country whose magnitude they say will dwarf the 9-11

Attack by comparison (Allison, 2004).

Specifically, those committed to attacking this country have already stated their intention to acquire and detonate a nuclear device on American soil, and Osama bin Laden has said that he intends to kill as many as four million Americans, and that doing so is authorized by Islamic rules because Allah allows the defense of Islam, even if that means killing innocent civilians in large numbers (Allison, 2004).

The intelligence community is actively engaged in monitoring multiple sources of information, and by every indication publicized by federal agencies, the threats to American security are credible. That is why the U.S. has consolidated all 15 intelligence agencies into single National Security Council (NSC) to ensure that all relevant leads are shared among the different entities responsible for preventing future terrorism in the United States.

References

Allison, G. (2004) Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe. New York: Henry Holt.