GAAT Strategic Estimate Tensions between Azerbaijan and Ahurastan are increasing.

Ahurastan is supporting insurgent forces within Azerbaijan, including SAPA.

These insurgent forces threaten the political, social, and economic stability within the region.

GOAZ faces internal threats with support from Ahurastan.

International oil interests in the Caspian Sea are also being threatened.

The threat could also move to endanger Armenia if not handled properly and quickly.

Ahurastan has the capabilities to utilize nuclear resources within 5-7 years, making it crucial to handle the issue now.

Armenia is another major target, and is already weakened by limited energy resources and a recent nuclear meltdown.

Joint forces already have the support of Russia, Turkey, and Georgia, making efforts easier to facilitate in the region.

Iran is currently not a threat due to its own internal instability.

CTJF efforts can utilize strategic relationships with Russia and Turkey, as well as NATO hopefuls Armenia and Georgia to help facilitate strategic action.

1. Background / Discussion

a. There are tensions within the region that can cause problems to international interests in the region. Ahurastan began...

It began supporting SAPA, which is essentially "the largest and most established one in the country and currently challenges the authority of the Government of Azerbaijan."
GOAZ has been attempting to create a Muslim dominant government based on a model provided by neighboring Turkey, yet it has been facing opposition by more extremist forces.

(1) In response to this aggression, Turkey has begun its own support for GOAZ. It recently stationed F-16s in Baku. Moreover, other nations have begun taking interest in the current situation, with Russia agreeing to allow a CJTF with possible inclusion of U.S. forces to counteract SAPA and supporting Ahurstani forces.

b. The United States has a strategic direction that aims to help Azerbaijan continue to work towards a more progressive social, economic, and political stability. Moreover, any actions taken by the United States must also work to continue a positive relationship with Russia, as to not aggravate the situation further.

(1) From an international perspective, any direct action would be working primarily to support oil interests in the region.

c. Ahurastan definitely poses a big threat to international interests and peace in the region.…