Strategic tensions between Azerbaijan and regional security dynamics

GAAT Strategic Estimate

Tensions between Azerbaijan and Ahurastan are increasing.

Ahurastan is supporting insurgent forces within Azerbaijan, including SAPA.

These insurgent forces threaten the political, social, and economic stability within the region.

GOAZ faces internal threats with support from Ahurastan.

International oil interests in the Caspian Sea are also being threatened.

The threat could also move to endanger Armenia if not handled properly and quickly.

Ahurastan has the capabilities to utilize nuclear resources within 5-7 years, making it crucial to handle the issue now.

Armenia is another major target, and is already weakened by limited energy resources and a recent nuclear meltdown.

Joint forces already have the support of Russia, Turkey, and Georgia, making efforts easier to facilitate in the region.

Iran is currently not a threat due to its own internal instability.

CTJF efforts can utilize strategic relationships with Russia and Turkey, as well as NATO hopefuls Armenia and Georgia to help facilitate strategic action.

1. Background / Discussion

a. There are tensions within the region that can cause problems to international interests in the region. Ahurastan began supporting insurgent groups within Azerbaijan, potentially putting GOAZ in danger. It began supporting SAPA, which is essentially "the largest and most established one in the country and currently challenges the authority of the Government of Azerbaijan."

GOAZ has been attempting to create a Muslim dominant government based on a model provided by neighboring Turkey, yet it has been facing opposition by more extremist forces.

(1) In response to this aggression, Turkey has begun its own support for GOAZ. It recently stationed F-16s in Baku. Moreover, other nations have begun taking interest in the current situation, with Russia agreeing to allow a CJTF with possible inclusion of U.S. forces to counteract SAPA and supporting Ahurstani forces.

b. The United States has a strategic direction that aims to help Azerbaijan continue to work towards a more progressive social, economic, and political stability. Moreover, any actions taken by the United States must also work to continue a positive relationship with Russia, as to not aggravate the situation further.

(1) From an international perspective, any direct action would be working primarily to support oil interests in the region.

c. Ahurastan definitely poses a big threat to international interests and peace in the region. The country is said to be 5 to 7 years away from reaching nuclear capabilities, making this an urgent matter to be dealt with before such capabilities are met and the situation becomes even more complex.

SAPA and its support in Ahurastan threaten to upset a progressive path to greater stability in Azerbaijan and also threaten to strike out at Armenia as well.

(1) Despite current tensions with Iran, the country does not pose a major threat in the region due to its own instability within its internal affairs. Thus, it can be seen as a lesser degree threat, allowing CTJF forces to concentrate primarily on SAPA and its support coming from Ahurastan.

(2) There are a number of operational challenges as well. First, forces will have to gain access to airspace over Turkey and Georgia. Armenia also presents several operational challenges with the issue of a nuclear reactor leak.

2. Conclusion / Recommendations

a. The issue of the nuclear meltdown is a major concern. Yet, the need for assistance with this leak will help open up greater relationship ties between Armenia and NATO, as the country wishes to gain membership. Forces can then leverage the opportunity of gaining another ally in the region that will help with efforts to subdue threats from SAPA and Ahurastan.