Global immigration patterns and Russia's role

Global Immigration: Russia

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Russia has a population crisis. High death rates and a low rate of birth, means that in 2006 the number of pensioners in Russia exceeded the number of young men starting their careers.

A recent forecast that studied Russia's demographic trends until the year 2100 proves that its population will shrink at a fast rate unless a massive influx of migrants begins. An extrapolation forecast (i.e. suggesting that the current migration tendencies will be maintained) indicates that fewer than 100 million people are likely to live in Russia in 2050. In 2100, the nation will be reduced to fewer than 70 million people.

That imbalance will grow. Two million new workers every year are necessary to allow the Russian economy not to stagnate; Russian experts put the figure nearer to 700,000.

The Russian government has been advised to legalize non-Russian citizens who are living and working illegally in Russia, and to ask ethnic Russians in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and other countries to return.

There is disagreement about the plan for the ethnic Russians. Some experts and government officials say there are not enough ethnic Russians for this plan to succeed. And measures to stimulate the birth rate inside the country will not help either, they say.

The only solution may be mass immigration. In 2005, President Vladimir Putin, said: "Today's most important goal is the stimulation of the immigration process. The demographic situation in the country has dictated the necessity of calculated measures to attract foreign labor to the Russian economy" (Yasmann).

Due to its extensive common borders and overpopulation in many of the Chinese provinces, the Chinese are the primary group of labor migrants that were identified years ago as the most likely to mass immigrate to Russia. This has proven to be the case -- both legally and illegally.

In 2002, the number of Chinese who entered the country increased by almost 55% compared to the annual average figure for the previous four years. If that trend continues, by the middle of the 21st century, Russia could be home to 10 million ethnic Chinese. That would make them the second-largest ethnic group in the country after Russians. Such an influx could spark xenophobia (unreasonable fear or hatred of foreigners) among the local population (Yasmann).

There are no reliable statistics in Russia concerning immigrant workers. Local tabloids publish alarming estimates that they number as many as 20 million (if true this would mean that a massive invasion of Russia by foreign nationals is effectively underway). Government officials, meanwhile, say that illegal workers (who do not pay taxes) cost the federal budget around $7 billion per year (Dzieciolowski).

However, Rostislav Kapelushnikov of the Moscow high school of economics counsels caution about frequently cited estimates of the number of foreign workers in the Russian Federation. A population of 142 million means that the number of people active in the labor market is no higher than 69 million. Kapelushnikov concludes there is no evidence whatsoever that the figure of 20 million foreign workers often quoted by the Russian media is correct; his own judgment is that foreign workers make up no more than 5% of the Russian labor market, with no more than 4 million in total (Dzieciolowski).

Large industrial companies which also need unskilled workers try to avoid hiring foreigners; they would risk heavy fines employing them without proper permits, and securing these would be from their point-of-view both too costly and a time-consuming hassle. It is different for smaller independent businesses, which are difficult for the government to control. That is why migrant labor is concentrated in a few specific and highly visible areas such as construction. Perhaps that contributes to the widespread impression among Russians that foreign workers are "everywhere,," and taking jobs away from the natives (Dzieciolowski).

Russia may not be immune from the kind of problems that France has experienced with angry young immigrants and riots. But it would be even more dangerous and counterproductive, says Kapelushnikov, for the country to listen to those who call for a total ban on immigrant labor. Such a decision would only strengthen Russia's demographic crisis (Dzieciolowski).

The unregistered nature of labor migration to Russia deprives migrants of citizen rights, making them vulnerable to underground employers and creating fears among Russians that immigration could drastically alter the country's ethnic makeup.

Russia's massive building and retail boom fueled by years of steady economic expansion created millions of largely semiskilled jobs that workers from Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Moldova and Kyrgyzstan rushed to fill, with official blessing. As a result, Russia last year was the second biggest immigrant destination in the world (after the United States), with nearly 7 million migrants, 2.8 million legal and about 4 million illegal (Matthews and Nemtsova).

But as the Russian economy craters, its immigrant community looks set to suffer most as a backlash against foreigners -- Russia's time-honored scapegoats from tsarist times -- gathers pace

Over the last year, the number of attacks on foreigners has risen sharply. Sova, a Moscow NGO that monitors hate crimes, reports that 96 foreigners were killed and 410 wounded as a result of racist attacks in 2008 -- an increase of nearly a third over the year before.

Official Russian policy toward immigrants has also lurched toward anti-immigrant populism. With unemployment expected to soar as the economic crisis takes hold, Putin announced in December that quotas would be cut in half in 2009, from 4 million to 2 million permits a year (Matthews and Nemtsova).

Aside from the human toll, there is an economic cost. Last year immigrant labor comprised 6% of Russian output, and demand for foreign labor is only expected to grow. Russia's working population has been falling steadily because of soaring death rates and disastrously low birthrates through the late 1980s and '90s. The State Statistics Service estimates that the country's workforce will fall by some 8 million people over the next seven years. In August, President Dmitry Medvedev was talking of Russia's "labor famine." "This problem is greater than any other facing us over the next 10 years," says economist Yevgeny Yasin.

But the damage is already done. Research last year by the International Organization for Migration showed that 76% of immigrants had no intention of staying in Russia for more than a few years, or bringing their families there. In the hostile new climate, the exodus of workers is likely to be as dramatic as their influx -- and those remaining are likely to reap more of Russia's anger at growing unemployment and poverty (Matthews and Nemtsova).

Currently, unemployment in Russia has risen steadily since the December 2008 figures of 5.8 million persons, or 7.7%, were released. Experts predict that the Russian economy soon will be in recession and that by the end of 2009, more than 2.2 million citizens will be forced to rely on the state for income (Monacelli).

Perhaps most troubling is the fact that even before the financial crisis hit Russia, a June 2008 poll showed that 55% of the population believed that "the best way to limit ethnic tensions was to 'limit the flow of unskilled labor' and make it more difficult to obtain entrance permits and registration." The government officially continues to oppose racism and support immigration as a means of increasing the population, but this could change if the Kremlin acquiesces to the growing groundswell of popular support for toughening immigration. (Monacelli)