Terrorism Memo Re: Possible Rise

Terrorism Memo

Re: Possible rise of terrorism in Japan

Assessment of risk over the next six months and steps needed to mitigate terrorism recruitment (3/11-9/11)

Much of the world has watched in sympathy and respect over the last week as the Japanese people and their government have responded with grace to the triple catastrophe of a 9.0 earthquake, the following tsunami, and the still-ongoing struggle to contain problems at nuclear power plants. However, while there is much to praise in this effort to begin to come to terms with and then recover such a terrible blow from nature, there is also room for concern that the chaos that has naturally resulted will provide a breeding ground for terrorism.

The world's focus on terrorism over the last ten years has been almost entirely on Muslim extremists. There have been ongoing warnings about the perils of such a narrow focus, but these have been in general ignored for at least two reasons. The first of these is that there is a clear Western bias that tends to assume both that a greater percentage of Muslims are radicalized than are and that other communities are less likely to have radicalized members than is in fact the case.

Japan has not been the site of a serious terrorist attack since 1995, when five members of the cult/religion Aum Shinrikyo initiated a chemical terrorist attack on the Tokyo subway during rush hour. The chemical agent that they used was sarin, which is classified as a weapon as mass destruction and is a nerve agent that acts very quickly and in very small doses can prove fatal to humans.

Members of the cult had intended to aerosolize the sarin, but failed to do so. Had they been able to do so, the attack would no doubt have been far more deadly. As it was, the attack killed thirteen people, severely injured fifty and resulted in temporary albeit vision problems for almost a thousand other victims.

The religious group that organized and staged the attack has lost its official status with the Japanese government as a religion but still has over 200 members. They themselves are unlikely to be a significant threat in the future; however, the social forces that prompted them to become violent still exist in Japanese society.

Key Actors

As is the case with many manifestations of terrorism, the terrorists in were linked to religion. In that case, it was not Islam or Christianity but Shintoism. Shintoism is not an inherently violent religion. It has ancient, pantheistic roots and so should be allied with the most gentle and non-violent of human impulses. However, it is also the case that Shintoism has over the past century become a mechanism for radical nationalism in Japan.

Nationalism is at least as powerful a supporter and initiator of terrorism as is religion. When the two join hands so that a religion is seen to embody the nation and its leaders, then those who become linked to the national religion may feel that they and any violent tendencies that they have are doubly blessed, by both the state and the gods.

Terrorism can take hold of a group and so of its victims at any moment, but it is most likely to find a fertile ground when people are afraid, anger, or feeling betrayed by the social structures that they had previously felt that they could trust. This is very much the situation that is currently at hand in Japan. While the government has been seen to be a guiding hand in the response to the emergencies so far, as days begin to turn to weeks in the recovery effort people are almost certainly going to become less and less sure of the government's response and more and more likely to begin to look for other means of authority.

Japan finds itself at a critical point in its historical development. The world's third largest economy, it also has the world's second-highest debt burden in proportional terms and the current triple disaster is going to have dire consequences on the nation's recovery from the current worldwide recession. Economic uncertainty, loss of faith in current political structures and leaders, loss of status in the world, betrayal by corporations that have also been a key stabilizing structure in the nation: This is a potent mixture for resistance against the state and its representatives. This resistance may be peaceful and democratic. Or it may be violent, arising from dark, dank pools of ultranationalism that may well be already feasting on the bodies of the uncollected dead.

It is entirely possible that various ultranationalist right wing groups in Japan may produce or support recruitment of terrorists in the coming months. There are currently hundreds of ultranationalist groups in Japan, with tens of thousands of members.

While they range to some extent in philosophy and vehemence, they are generally unified around hostility toward China and North Korea and wish Japan to be more open to military strength. They generally oppose any action that makes the county look weak and so may be opposed to the government's asking other countries for help.

Possible responses and outcomes

The government may choose two possible general responses. They may either crack down on all dissent, which will probably result in increasing the trend toward increased nationalism and even increased violence. If the government is relatively lenient in terms of allowing dissent while keeping close tabs on any individuals that seem to have the potential for violence. Any crackdown by the government will likely been seen by ultranationalists as a sign of the country's decay and so insight more violence.

Recommendations

There is no way to ensure that terrorists will not strike at Japanese society. However, there are things that the government can do that will help. The first is to permit a freer press and open dissent, perhaps by having politicians engage in open dialogue with right-wing nationalists or Shinto radicals. Exposing their ideas to the sunlight of discourse will do a great deal to limit its perniciousness.