Global Warming: Evidence and Remedies

Global Warming: Evidence and Remedies

As the evidence for global warming mounted over the years, accusations of 'foot dragging' by the United States increased in the world community. The most notable manifestation of U.S. inaction was its refusal to sign the Kyoto Treaty, in which 140 nations resolved to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions 5.2% less than they were in 1990, by 2012 (Ifill 2005). For many years, vocal and powerful political forces within the United States denied the existence of global warming at all. Now that evidence for an increase in the earth's temperature is unequivocal, those who deny the phenomenon state that it cannot be man-made but is naturally generated the result of natural shifts in the earth's climate. However, "the heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was demonstrated in the mid-19th century" (Climate change, 2010, NASA).

Furthermore, "all three major global surface temperature reconstructions show that Earth has warmed since 1880. Most of this warming has occurred since the 1970s, with the 20 warmest years having occurred since 1981 and with all 10 of the warmest years occurring in the past 12 years. Even though the 2000s witnessed a solar output decline resulting in an unusually deep solar minimum in 2007-2009, surface temperatures continue to increase" (Climate change, 2010, NASA). Melting ice caps, increasing ocean temperatures, more severe storms, and fundamental and sudden shifts in a variety of the earth's ecosystems have been the result of this sudden, human-generated climate change.

"Projections of future climate change anticipate an additional warming of 2.0 to 11.5 "F (1.1 to 6.4 "C) over the 21st century, on top of the 1.4 "F already observed over the past 100 years" (Climate change, 2010, National Academy of Sciences). As a result, droughts in areas where the source of water availability are glaciers or snowpack; flooding in rain-prone areas, higher storm surges; and ocean acidification are all likely to occur. But the problem with fighting environmental problems and setting goals to radically reduce emissions is that many individuals are not science-literate enough to draw immediate connections between events such as Hurricane Katrina and the more severe storms this winter in the American Northeast with climate change -- a heat wave may occur and people may talk about the need to combat global warming, but once the immediate phenomenon abates, it is hard for people to understand what is ultimately an incremental, long-term effect on the earth.

It is difficult, cognitively speaking for people to make great sacrifices for what cannot provide tangible rewards in the 'here and now.' Making sacrifices to reduce greenhouse gases will be painful in the short-term, and may only be enjoyed by later generations. That is why government must step in with incentives and regulations to combat global warming. "Many factors enter into the decision to favor either policies that lean more toward economic incentives (EI) and toward direct regulation, commonly referred to as command-and-control (CAC) policy"(Harrington & Morganstern 2004, p.14). While command-based incentives were more favored in the U.S. during the 1970s, the increasing shift to view market-based incentives in a more positive light caused a tendency to stress incentives in the Reagan era and beyond -- just when the warming of the earth's atmosphere began to increase.

Today, both incentives continue to be used. One example of a control mechanism used to prevent global warming is fuel emissions caps. However, within the U.S. these have proven to be extremely unpopular. California, for example, has one of the most stringent and ambitious goals to regulate emissions but in November voters will be able to vote to suspend these goals, in a supposed effort to increase jobs if Proposition 23 is passed (Nagourney 2010). Incentive-based regulations are familiar to most consumers in the form of tax incentives to buy Energy Star-rated products, tax credits for fuel-conserving home improvements such as storm windows and doors, and special express lanes for hybrid cars. Clearly, incentive-based strategies are more popular, given that they have benefits for the consumer in the short-term as well as the long-term. Incentive-based strategies also tend to generate more positive good will about environmentalism in the public. But are they more effective? At present, the evidence is mixed regarding both strategies, although incentives continue to be more favored -- the Kyoto treaty created a 'cap and trade' program to increase incentives to meet emissions goals by enabling nations that overshot their reduction benchmarks to 'sell' credits to more polluting signature nations.