Confirmation Bias in Film Doubt

Confirmation Bias in Film Doubt

Confirmation Bias in the Movie "Doubt"

The film "Doubt" (2008) forces us to think about the difficult question of coping with our convictions which are hard to prove. The movie revolves around a dilemma: is Father Flynn guilty of conducting sexual relations with Donald, a black boy in the Catholic school where Father Flynn preaches, or is he a victim of a defamation campaign by Sister Aloysius who makes all efforts to prove Father Flynn's presumed guilt. The film does not give a clear answer and that is probably on purpose. The filmmakers leave it to viewers to decide whether Father Flynn is guilty or not. While we ponder about this question, there are important lessons to be learnt. One important lesson we can learn is how the concept of confirmation bias can play a decisive role in our decision to convict a person.

Confirmation bias refers to our tendency to look for evidences that confirm our earlier convictions and expectations rather than searching for evidences that may disconfirm our convictions. For example, a materialist expects that everyone in their heart is materialistic. So, even if this materialist analyzes the behavior of religious or altruistic persons, he or she is going to look for evidences confirming that all people act out of material needs and wants. Either purposefully, or without even realizing it, the materialist avoids looking at evidences that challenge his or her conviction that all persons are materialistic. A related concept is "positive test strategy." This concept refers to our tendency to test hypothesis by seeking confirming evidence. The two concepts are similar as in both cases we seek for confirmation of what we think rather than what in reality is there.

As soon as I saw Father Flynn making very friendly gestures toward children under his care, I began to suspect that he was a child sexual molester. There has been so much coverage of sex scandals in the Catholic Church in the media recently that I immediately assumed that Father Flynn was one of the child abusers. In other words, the media discussion of sex scandals in the Catholic Church influenced my initial judgment of Father Flynn. As the movie continued, I began to look for evidences confirming his guilt. When I saw Sister James noticing how Father Flynn left Donald's shirt in his locker, I thought this confirmed my expectation. I believed Father Flynn was guilty. When Sister Aloysius suggested that this was something one could expect from lonely priests, in her first discussion of the incident with Sister James, I thought the case was closed.

As the story unfolded -- Father Flynn's confidence in his innocence and his ability to explain his treatment of children, especially in a conversation with Sister James who believes that Father Flynn's explanation is adequate and convincing -- I began to doubt. Nevertheless, I kept looking for evidences that would prove Father Flynn's guilt. Sister Aloysius's discussion with Donald's mother and the decision of Father Flynn to leave the school at the end of the film again confirmed my earlier conviction that Father Flynn was guilty. As Sister Aloysius confessed to Sister James that she has doubts about her righteousness, I had my doubts again.