Settlement scenarios in the Indo-Pakistani Kashmir dispute

¶ … Kashmir Dispute

Kashmir is at the heart of a dispute between Pakistan and India. This dispute has been ongoing for more than 50 years, and does not show any easy or immediate way of being resolved. The background of the dispute is a boundary. There is a line of control that runs through Kashmir. It divides the region in two. One area is generally governed and monitored by India, while the other side is controlled by Pakistan (The future, n.d.).

The boundary is not a formal one, however, so there are still arguments over where it is located and if it should be located somewhere else. India is happy with the boundary as it stands, and would like to see it made official, formal, and permanent right where it is. However, Pakistan does not agree with this assessment. That country would like greater control over more of Kashmir, so it wants to see the boundary moved to a more central location. There is also the matter of what the Kashmiri people want, which is more control over their own region (The future, n.d.).

India and Pakistan started fighting over Kashmir in 1947, with a war that officially ended in 1948 (The future, n.d.). The United Nations got involved, and an agreement was reached. India ended up with two-thirds of Kashmir, while Pakistan received one third. In 1972, the line that divided the area was renamed the Line of Control, and no longer called the ceasefire line (The future, n.d.). India is making concessions in agreeing to let the Line of Control be the international border, because India actually believes it should have all of Kashmir.

Pakistan wants the line moved, so that the Kashmir Valley -- which is predominantly a Muslim area -- would be on its side (The future, n.d.). Since 1989, though, the Kashmiri people have been fighting for independence (The future, n.d.). Some insist on having the whole state belong to them, and others are willing to give up part of it to India, Pakistan, or both. Either way, though, there is a great deal of stress involved and a significant number of lives at stake, all of which has to be considered when a border is finally determined.

Even though there are two countries that have control -- India and Pakistan -- there are really three countries that have a stake in what is taking place. Kashmir could let the other two countries essentially take it over, but it could also continue to fight for its own independence, and try to have both borders pushed back (The future, n.d.). In addition to the three countries that are all involved in the issue, there are seven possible scenarios that could work to resolve the problem. They all have to be considered, even though some of them are much more likely to take place than others, based on how logical they are. Scenario One involves keeping everything the way it is right now, and just adhering to the status quo (The future, n.d.). While it is not necessarily a popular option with the people who would be affected by it, it is an option with which they are already familiar, and may remain the best choice if no other agreement can be made.

Scenario Two is Kashmir joining Pakistan. This is seen to be a logical solution to the problem, because both Kashmir and Pakistan are mostly Muslim countries (The future, n.d.). They would "get along" in the sense that they generally agree on religious issues, and with that in mind it would be relatively easy to integrate the two areas. With part of Kashmir already being controlled by Pakistan, it is possible that the transition to all of Kashmir belonging to Pakistan would be a relatively smooth one in a number of ways. There are still plenty of other options, though, that could be more effective.

Scenario Three would have Kashmir joining India. While India does have control over approximately two-thirds of Kashmir already, the part of the region that is controlled by Pakistan does not have any desire to join India (The future, n.d.). There would likely be a fight if India tried to exert control over all of Kashmir, as the mostly-Muslim areas of the region would not be willing to remove themselves from Pakistani control and move over to being managed by India. The religious and cultural differences could be problematic.

Scenario Four revolves around Kashmir becoming independent. There are many in the region who would support this taking place, but there are also a number of Kashmiri people who do not think it is a good idea for their region to be independent (The future, n.d.). They already owe their allegiance to either India or Pakistan, and they would not be comfortable changing that or giving it up. Additionally, this scenario would require both Pakistan and India to give up territory, and neither country is interested in doing that. The two countries spend a lot of time arguing over where the Line of Control should be, and both countries want more control of Kashmir than they currently have (The future, n.d.).

Scenario Five is similar to Scenario Four, in that Kashmir would be independent. The difference is that only part of Kashmir would become independent and retain the name of the country (The future, n.d.). The other parts would become territories of India and Pakistan. As with Scenario Four, though, it is extremely unlikely that Pakistan and India would agree to this, because they would still have to give up their control of part of the territory in order for Kashmir to have its independence. Despite the fact that many people in Kashmir want independence, it is also important to note that there may not be enough support in the particular area that would comprise the new, smaller Kashmir to make this scenario happen (The future, n.d.).

Scenario Six would create an independent Kashmir Valley only, while the rest of the region would continue to belong to Pakistan and India (The future, n.d.). There are a number of reasons why this could work, but there is one huge problem, as well. Generally, the region is too small and lacks the resources to be economically viable. Even if it was created, it would not be able to last, because it could not support itself (The future, n.d.). If that occurred, the only way it would be able to survive would be for it to be taken over and, essentially, "bailed out" by another country -- likely India or Pakistan -- so nothing would really be accomplished.

Scenario Seven is the final option, and it involves dividing Kashmir between India and Pakistan, along the Chenab River. That would give the majority of Kashmir to Pakistan, including all the Muslim areas of the region (The future, n.d.). It would also provide a victory, of sorts, over India, since India and Pakistan continue to fight and argue over which one of the countries can and should "own" Kashmir's territory. That would not address any of the Kashmiri people who want independence, but would solve most of the religious issue involving the majority of Muslims wanting to be part of Pakistan (The future, n.d.).