Applying module concepts to an approved project proposal outline

Individual Project: Project Outline

Explicit inclusion of one or more elements of this course

The survey methodology selected for the proposed project is highly congruent with a number of social researchers who recommend surveys for a wide range of applications (Neuman 2003). According to De Vaus (1996, p. 3), "A survey is not just a particular technique of collecting information. The distinguishing features of surveys are the form of the data and the method of analysis." The survey methodology is also consistent with the guidance provided by Grinnell and Unrau (2005, p. 272) that, "Surveys can be designed to achieve a variety of ends, but they all seek to collect data from many individuals in order to understand something about them as a whole."

Elaboration of the chosen scenario

Doomsday predictions of peak oil being reached by mid-century or sooner have sparked increasing interest in the world's finite oil supplies. For instance, according to Grant (2007, p. 64), "Peak oil is the point at which oil production reaches a maximum value and thereafter declines. Because of the dependence of industrialized society on oil, peak oil may be one of the most important, possibly cataclysmic, events in modern history." This issue has become even more urgent with the growing economic powerhouses of China, Brazil, Russia, India and Malaysia demanding more and more oil for their middle classes. Conversely, other authorities argue that the world's supply of oil has not yet been fully tapped, and there are trillions of barrels of oil left for the taking and the rumors of peak oil are misplaced (Haubrich & Meyer 2007).

Cogency of argument

In reality, the earth has a finite amount of oil reserves available for exploitation and it just makes common sense that as the supply of oil is consumed, there will be less left for future needs. This straightforward approach to analyzing the problem of peak oil, though, fails to take into account a number of factors that will inevitably play a critical role in how much oil is available in the future. In this regard, Haubrich and Brent (2007, p. 2) emphasize that, "The problem comes in thinking of these proven reserves as a measure of the oil left in the earth. Rather, reserves are defined as the known amounts of a mineral that can be profitably produced at current prices using current technology." This definition, though, does not consider innovations in technology (i.e., "fracking") or undiscovered reserves that may become viable in the future. According to Haubrich and Brent (2007, p. 2), "As exploration continues, technology advances, and prices increase, more oil becomes available. Economically, reserves are more akin to a store's inventory than to some ultimate measure of resource availability." Moreover, even existing reserves can be expanded through technological means. In this regard, Haubrich and Brent (2007, p. 3) add that, "While most people think of reserves increasing with new discoveries and decreasing as oil is pumped out of the ground, reserves also increase when new techniques make it cheaper to pump more oil and decrease when the price of oil falls."

Consideration of counter-arguments

Given the gravity of the problem at the global economy level, it is not surprising that many observers want the problem of peak oil to just go away, to be replaced by vague assurances by the energy industry that all is well and there will be plenty of oil to go around for the foreseeable future. Other analysts, though, maintain that peak oil may be reached sooner than expected, if it has not already been reached. According to Scott (2008, p. 496), "Peak oil refers to the maximum rate of the world's extraction of conventional oil. There is a minority of professionals who deny the phenomenon." The essence of the argument over peak oil concerns the point at which global oil production will reach its zenith, or if the maximum has already been reached or if not, just how long is left before it is reached (Scott 2008). According to Scott (2008, p. 496), "Mainstream debate centres on whether the global peak of oil production has already been reached or is still ahead and, if so, how far away it is. It is projected that once we are on the downward slope, oil will become increasingly difficult to extract." A natural concomitant to peak oil will be increased prices, particularly in view of the burgeoning econojic powerhouses described above. As Harrison (2006, p. 63) emphasizes, besides the immediate impact of dwindling oil supplies, "The peak oil crisis will mean that public health intervention will now be needed to uncover, manage and mediate the social governance of risk consequences arising from industrialization, and help plan for future energy scarcity." Likewise, Scott (2008, p. 495) argues that, "The need to take decisive, coordinated, global action on threats of peak oil is becoming increasingly urgent."