Ivory Coast the Weakening State

Ivory Coast

The Weakening State and Potential for Failure: A Case Study of the Ivory Coast (Cote d'Ivoire)

The twentieth century saw major changes in the global political landscape, as the monarchies and empires that had persisted for most of the modern era -- with some extending well beyond this, into the reaches of Medieval history -- crumbled in favor of the new major entity of political sovereignty, the nation-state. The two World Wars were especially formative in terms of destroying old barriers and creating new ones, both in direct and indirect ways. Certain countries that had functioned fairly well as loosely collected units found themselves in the grips of civil strife once they had been coalesced into single national governments, while other nations were simply created wholesale by what were essentially arbitrary mapmakers working for the European powers. The number of nations and the inadequacy and in many instances inappropriateness of their borders has made the twentieth and early twenty-first century a period of intense national and international volatility and conflict.

What has made the issues facing this period especially confounding is the lack of truly long-term predictability. Some of the problems with newly-formed and -forming nations arose immediately, but others have taken decades to manifest. The dissolution of the Soviet Union led to the rapid and relatively peaceful emergence of a number of different nations, for instance, whereas the breakup of Yugoslavia took decades to really come to a head. Often, these delays can be attributed to a particular leadership figure or party.

This has certainly been the case in the Ivory Coast; after achieving final independence from France in 1960, the country remained under the leadership of President Felix Houphouet-Boigny until his death in 1993 (INR Report 2004). Since that time, increasing democratization has led to increasing problems, with land use and title issues ill-defined, one successful and one failed military coup in the country's recent history, and problems of unemployment and economic stagnancy a constant and growing threat (INR Report 2004). Though unique in many regards, the Ivory Coast is also very similar to many other developing nations in the modern era, and can be viewed from the perspective of numerous different models regarding nation-state power and failure. This paper will examine the current situation in the Ivory Coast, assessing its opportunities and threats, and will then analyze the country based on two current theories regarding state failure and weakness.

The Ivory Coast: Prospects and Security Interests

The Ivory Coast is currently caught in a delicate imbalance, with the current military-backed president refusing to cede power to his popularly elected opponent. Having already been a much-divided country for the better part of a decade, the next six months could be a time of increased turmoil and violence for the people and government of the Ivory Coast, especially given recent upheavals by the sitting president, Laurent Gbagbo, to the government as a whole (CIA 2011; USDoS 2011). Economic activity as well as security and regulatory efforts are all likely to experience major setbacks in the short-term.

The long-term prospects for the country, however, are very different. Until the past decade, the Ivory Coast has been one of the most stable countries in the region, and possibly on the entire continent (USDoS 2011). The country is still heavily dependent on agriculture both for its sustenance and in its exporting activities, but even with this dependence the land is not being used efficiently or in any sort of clearly-defined manner (INR Report 2004). This suggests that there is significant potential for the country to increase its production of export goods as well as domestic food needs, and might also be able to begin transitioning to a more industrial and manufacturing-based economy should political stability be re-achieved. Given the level of interest in the nation and the degree of intervention that has already been achieved on several occasions since the nation's ostensible independence, it seems likely that he international community will eventually intercede in the political standoff the country is currently experiencing, meaning this stability will again take hold and lead to great equanimity and potential throughout the nation.

There are still significant security concerns for the United States in West Africa, and as a potentially strong ally there is a definite interest in seeing stability returned to the Ivory Coast. Having a solid partner in the region that is able to both lead by example and serve as a center for bringing greater stability to nearby oil-rich nations is a definite concern for the United States, and ongoing unrest in the Ivory Coast will only fuel increased violence and instability in countries with more direct relationships with the United States.

There are certain obvious figures and sectors that the intelligence community should focus on in their assessment of the Ivory Coast in both its short- and long-term prospects. Certain military leaders siding with President Gbagbo will likely be given key positions in whatever government ends up becoming the stabilizing force in the country, but this does not mean that they will necessarily serve the interests of that government or its allies (USDoS 2011). A strong youth dominance in the demographics of the Ivory Coast also suggests that an increasing number of factions with numbers sufficient to require inclusion in any stable government, and intelligence should largely focus on determining the emerging leaders in the upcoming generation and the issues and principles around which these factions will be coalescing (INR Report 2004). This will enable increasingly effective decisions to be made as more and more accurate pictures of the long-term potentials and likelihoods in the Ivory Coast will be developed through this ongoing analysis.

Competing Models

Though the government in the Ivory Coast is currently in a great deal of turmoil -- turmoil that can in many ways be seen as an extension of the coup that achieved power in 1999 -- it has not necessarily failed (CIA 2011). Defining state failure as a fundamental inability for central authorities (i.e. law-making and enforcing) to be carried out, which is an academically accepted definition, the Ivory Coast is still more stable than many other countries in the region (Langford 1999). At the same time, one could argue that laws are not being enforced as along as a man is illegally claiming the presidency.