Exploring the Future of Arab-Japan Relations in a Changing Energy Landscape

Introduction

In an era of evolving energy landscapes and geopolitics, the future of Arab-Japan relations, particularly with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), is under scrutiny. These relations, once underpinned primarily by oil trade, are evolving due to shifts in energy demands, policy goals, and strategic visions. While the outlook is uncertain, two academic perspectives predominate: one foresees a decline in these relations due to decreased oil dependency, while the other emphasizes the potential for continued growth and cooperation in various fields. This article aims to elucidate these viewpoints.

Perspective One: Decline due to Decreased Oil Dependency

One argument is that the Arab-Japan relationship could face decline as Japan makes progress in diversifying its energy portfolio. This argument revolves around the principle that Japan's strong push towards green energy and reduced carbon emissions could decrease reliance on Arab oil, thereby affecting the vitality of their bilateral relationships. This argument is based on the fact that Japan has initiated a shift towards green energy adoption in a substantial way (Takahashi, 2020).

Japan's "Green Growth Strategy," launched in 2020, underscores this shift, as it sets the ambitious goal of achieving a carbon-neutral society by 2050 (METI, 2014). This strategy outlines targeted policies and measures to promote renewable energy, energy efficiency, and advanced technologies such as hydrogen and carbon recycling. The strategy's implementation could fundamentally reshape Japan's energy demand landscape, reducing its traditional dependence on oil and other fossil fuels. As Takahashi (2020) points out, Japans trade ministry has issued a roadmap to shepherd Japans economy away from fossil fuels, and foster growth in green energy industries to bring within reach Prime Minister Yoshihide Sugas pledge to eliminate net carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Indeed, Japan is essentially calling for strong government spending to subsidize and incentivize emissions reduction, and innovation in more than a dozen industries details the potential economic growth that can be expected if the country reaches net zero carbon emissions (Takahashi, 2020). The report from Japans trade ministry gives a tentative framework to support Sugas vow in October to achieve decarbonization within three decades, it represents a major shift in the central governments attitude in treating renewable energy not as a barrier to economic growth but as a catalyst (Takahashi, 2020). With this push, dependence on oil from the Middle East is expected to decline substantially.

Japan, as the world's third-largest economy, has been heavily reliant on Arab nations for its oil supply for many decades (IEA, 2021). In 2019, more than 80% of Japan's crude oil imports came from the Middle East, underscoring the importance of the region to Japan's energy security (EIA, 2020). However, ongoing energy transitions, including the growth of renewable energy, the potential restart of nuclear power plants, and the rise of electric vehicles, are challenging this status quo. If Japan shifts away from fossil fuels, it stands to reason that the nation will have less reliance on Arab states and therefore less interaction with them due to this increase in energy independence.

The surge in electric vehicles (EVs), for instance, could significantly reduce oil demand in the transportation sector. Japan, being home to automaking giants such as Toyota and Nissan, is a major player in the global EV market. The country aims to make all new passenger cars electric by 2050 (METI, 2014), a move that could decrease oil imports in the long term.

In light of these developments, skeptics might suggest that the traditionally oil-centric ties between Japan and Arab nations may be under significant stress. For example, at the end of 2022, Arab News (2022) reported that while the UAE and Saudi Arabia accounted for 76.4% of Japans oil needs, oil imports were actually trending downward. Thus, the argument is that as Japan gradually lessens its oil dependency, the dynamics of its relationships with oil-rich Arab countries could change, leading to a possible decline in bilateral relations. However, this is only one side of the issue. The other side has its own arguments as well.

Perspective Two: Continued Growth and Cooperation

Conversely, there is another side of the debate that offers...…Abu Dhabi (2023) is one of the first initiatives to deliver the UAEs Energy Strategy 2050. Having more than 1200 MW Capacity of fully operational photovoltaic technology marks a significant milestoneand the plant is currently celebrating three years of clean energy production (Noor Abu Dhabi, 2023).

One could also make the argument that the importance of technology partnerships continues to exist. The UAE's investment in Japan's technology sector, and Japanese companies' keen interest in the UAE's thriving digital market, form a strong basis for continued cooperation (Al-Faheem, 2022). The recent surge in bilateral security agreements and Japan's ongoing involvement in regional maritime security also reinforce the strength of their relationship (Al-Faheem, 2022).

Conclusion

The future of Arab-Japan relations is indeed unfolding at a juncture of various dynamic forces. From an energy perspective, the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources is triggering changes in the relationships between traditional oil exporters, such as the Arab nations, and importers like Japan. As Japan marches towards its goal of a carbon-neutral society, the nature of its interaction with Arab nations, particularly the UAE, is boun to transform.

Simultaneously, mutual interests beyond oil are emerging as critical building blocks of Arab-Japan relations. The growth perspective suggests that these shared interests can create new avenues for cooperation. For instance, Japan's technological prowess aligns well with the Arab nations' desire for digital transformation. Furthermore, the UAE's ambitious plans for economic diversification and sustainable development present opportunities for Japanese firms specializing in areas such as renewable energy, infrastructure, and digital technologies. Crucially, both Japan and Arab nations seem to recognize that adapting to the changing global landscape is not merely a choice, but a necessity for survival and growth. The UAE's Vision 2021 and Japan's Society 5.0 are testament to their shared commitment to innovation and forward-thinking. Consequently, the evolving narrative of Arab-Japan relations is likely to be written by how successfully they navigate these dynamics. Their ability to transform challenges into opportunities, to leverage their respective strengths for mutual benefit, and to foster cooperation in a diverse array of fields,…