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LED Industry -- General Lightening Forecast 2012-2018

LED Industry -- General Lightening Forecast 2012-2018

The product chosen for writing this paper is General Lightening in Light Emitting Diode (LED). LED is a product that entered into the market in last few years and it was expected that people would quickly adopt it due to its attractive features and qualities. This paper will discuss the current use of LED and will forecast the future of LED in the general lighting application.

LED industry started from very small display applications and now has reached towards driving and replacing large LCD display application. It was expected that LED will be the industry driver for year 2011 but the reality was different and very few LEDs were adopted by the TV market. Looking at the expected increasing demand, many new players jumped in the market, most of which were from Asian Countries. This resulted into tough competition and a created an environment of overcapacity. Consequently; sales were 30% less than the predicted figure and companies were not able to make expected revenue. Indeed, they were left with huge stocks of LEDs and less demand due to a variety of brands available in cheaper prices.

Looking at this less demand and low market space for the LED TVs, most of the companies have now moved towards the General lighting, which is expected to be to the next highly demanded application of the LEDs. However, in order to increase the adoption of this new technology, it is required that the cost of LED products should be decreased so that masses can buy it (Pars Mukish, Market and Technology Analyst).

Currently, LEDs have started capturing their market due to their excellent advantages. These are semi-conductors and are gradually getter cheaper as predicted. It was estimated by Haitz in 1999 that the amount of light LED produces will be increase twenty times in every coming decade and the cost will drop by ten times. Haitz law proved to be true and people have started switching towards LEDs (Koeppel, 2011).

According to the reports of Yole Development and European Photonics Industry Consortium (EPIC) France; the revenue of packaged LED will reach to a market size of $11.8B in this year 2012 and will go be on its peak at $17.1B in coming five years, i.e. In 2018. The LCD TVs and general lighting will drive this growth until masses will adopt the LEDs in lighting. General lighting application will be the third growth cycle of the LEDs that will speedily run from 2014 and more than 50% of the LEDs will be of the general lighting application. If measured in terms of volume than it is expected that the LED die surface will expand from 22.5B mm2 in 2012 to 80B mm2 in 2018 (Mukish, Virey and Pearsall, 2012).

The trend of adopting the LED for general lighting, very much depends on the new technology and manufacturing improvements. Good performance and cost cutting can bring a change and a massive adoption can take place. It is predicted that if the cost of LED general lighting is reduced by 10 times than the masses will approach this new product very quickly. However, currently it is very difficult to bring down the cost at such a low scale. It can only be possible with a combination of improved performance and efficiency in manufacturing process.

Some of the possible solutions for cost reduction analyzed by the experts of Yole Development and European Photonics Industry Consortium are as follows (Mukish, Virey and Pearsall, 2012):

Getting access to the large size wafrers

Improving the cost of LED ownership with the help of yield and output

Improving the packaging technologies; for instance optics, phosphors etc.

Using luminary designs so that cost is significantly reduced

This changing trend of LEDs in future towards general lighting will also affect the marketing of the lighting; therefore, it is very necessary to design new business models in order to capture and expand the market. The long life of the Solid State Light technology will change the market of lighting by increasing the length of replacement cycles. The replacement market, which will actually be the aftermarket, will be very much affected and the traditional players will have no option but to make new strategies to sustain their customers (Banjamin, 2012).