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This method, with no weights or smooth, outperformed. In a sense, this is not particularly surprising. While in the real world the tire business varies by season, in this example the demand numbers appear to have been randomized. Each of these methods is essentially the same, but for the weights of the months in question. However, since the demand function is not experiencing linear growth, none of these approaches can be expected to be particularly strong with respect to the forecast. Simple moving came closest to predicting the actual demand, so in this instance it was the most reliable.
This forecast can be improved. Regardless of these figures, the business is seasonal. To improve the forecast, these different techniques can be applied to the last three instances of a given month. Thus, the trend over the past three months of January would be the best way to do this...
However, given the information available to us at this time, the estimate was the best in could be.
References:
Bozarth, C. (2011). Exponential smoothing: Approaches to forecasting. Poole College. Retrieved April 28, 2013 from http://scm.ncsu.edu/scm-articles/article/exponential-smoothing-approaches-to-forecasting-a-tutorial
Boyce, J. (2012). How to calculate average deviation from the mean. eHow. Retrieved April 28, 2013 from http://www.ehow.com/how_8094697_calculate-average-deviation-mean.html
Investopedia. (2013). Simple moving average. Investopedia. Retrieved April 28, 2013 from http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sma.asp
Investopedia. (2013). Weighted moving average. Investopedia. Retrieved April 28, 2013 from http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/060401.asp
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21). Conversely, Michman and Greco (1999) point out that, "Some department stores have failed because many have provided a stale and unexciting physical environment to customers. Another reason has been that some department stores have been unable to implement effective inventory management systems, thereby lowering costs to either match or at least approach the prices offered by discounters" (p. 4). Effectively managing inventory also requires the ability to monitor current
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From the year 1991, environmental considerations have come to be an important standard with regard to Nestle's renovation and innovation of packages and that of the packaging materials. Reduction with regard to the amount of packages and packaging materials which are required for a product and at the same time making conditions for protecting safety and quality is an ongoing important primary objective and priority. Nestle's 'No Waste at Work'
If the cost values satisfy the symmetry, such that for any I and j ? V, cij = cji, then the problem is said to be symmetric VRP, else, it is called an asymmetric VRP. In several practical cases the cost matrix satisfies the triangle inequality, such that cik + ckj ? cij for any i, j, k ? V." (Toth and Vigo, 1998, cited in Vural (2003). Vural (2003)