Media and Patriotism as Factors in Support for the Iraq Invasion

Public Opinion on the War in Iraq

Background

The research question for this paper was: \\\\\\\"What is the public opinion over the war in Iraq during the last few administrations as well as the public opinion on the president handling in pulling troops out of Iraq.\\\\\\\" To answer this question, the Roper iPoll database was consulted, with a keyword search of “war in Iraq” from the years 2002 to 2022. Some background on the war in Iraq is helpful for understanding the context of the data taken from these polls.

Public opinion on the war in Iraq has been highly divided and has changed over time. Initially, in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, a large majority of Americans supported the decision to invade Iraq, with the belief that Saddam Hussein posed a threat to national security. However, as the war dragged on and the lack of weapons of mass destruction was discovered, support for the war declined significantly (Pew Research, 2008; Voeten & Brewer, 2006).

During the Obama administration, a majority of Americans believed that the war was not worth fighting and wanted a swift withdrawal of troops. However, there were also concerns about the potential destabilization of the region and the rise of extremist groups like ISIS if U.S. forces were to leave too soon.

During the Trump administration, public opinion on the war in Iraq remained mixed, with some Americans supporting the decision to withdraw troops and others expressing concern about the potential for a resurgence of extremist groups in the region.

Overall, public opinion on the handling of the war in Iraq and the withdrawal of troops is highly dependent on political beliefs and individual experiences. Some viewed it as a necessary step towards bringing stability to the region, while others believe it was a mistake from the outset and question the wisdom of continued involvement.

Public Opinion on This Matter

Topline data on this matter indicates that from 2008 at the end of the Bush Administration through the Obama Administration and into the Trump Administration in 2017, American’s views on the Iraq War largely receded into the background amid other issues. In 2008, it was first and foremost in the minds of voters (ABC News/Washington Post, 2008). However, by 2017, only 1% of Americans considered Iraq to be of much concern at all (CNN, 2017). The topline data is supported by Pew Research, too. For instance, public opinion on the Iraq War indicates that the majority of Americans felt it was the right decision in 2003 (Pew Research, 2008). By the time of the 2008 election, however, the Iraq War was the most important issue to voters who seemingly wanted a change of approach, with the majority of Americans now regretting the war (ABC News/Washington Post, 2008; Pew Research, 2008). All of this data taken together shows a dramatic shift in public opinion on this topic—from overwhelming approval in 2003 to majority opposition in 2008 to apparent indifference in 2017. The war does span a generation, and this too could have an impact on attitudes.

Graph 1. Iraq War as Biggest Issue.

In terms of what is known about American public opinion about foreign policy overall, these polls line up well with whatever the big issues of the day were. In 2008, Iraq was a big issue and voters saw the election as a referendum on the Bush Administration’s approach to the war. However, as little changed under Obama, Americans lost interest and focused on other things like health care (another big issue during the Obama Administration). It is helpful to see what the topline data says, however, to get a fuller picture of opinion on this matter.

A 2017 CNN survey asked the question “What one issue do you feel is the most important issue facing the country today?” Only 2% of respondents answered War, and only 1% answered terrorism in Iraq. By 2017, most Americans probably had no idea that any troops still remained in Iraq, based on this response. In fact, the biggest issue for Americans was healthcare (24%)—not surprising considering that Obamacare (as the Affordable Care Act—ACA—was called) was somewhat unpopular with Americans, and Donald Trump had run on the platform of (among other things) dismantling the ACA.

This finding was down from 2015, when 6% of respondents to a CBS News Survey (2015) answered that the most important problem facing the US at that time was ISIS in Iraq/Syria.

However, a Gallup survey (2014) from the prior year showed only 1% of respondents concerned specifically about the war in Iraq. A 2013 survey from 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair showed that out of all the wars in American history, only 5% of respondents believed the 2003 Iraq War was the most necessary. 33% chose WW2, and 23% chose the Revolutionary War. This suggests that in big scheme of things, Americans felt—at least by 2013—that Iraq was not that important in terms of America’s place and honor.

Graph 2. Which war is most important.

Over this short span of five years, one thus sees a very small percentage of Americans overall having any concern for the Iraq war. Across two administrations (Obama to Trump) the concern was negligible—almost as though soldiers in Iraq were no longer on Americans’ minds.

It was a much different situation for voters in 2008, when they were asked in an ABC News/Washington Post survey, “Is there one other issue that\\\\\\\'s nearly as important (in your choice for President in 2008)?” 20% of respondents cited the Iraq war as the most important—more than any other issue in fact. By that point, of course, as Pew Research (2008) pointed out, Americans had become more disillusioned with the war: from a high of 72% of the population supporting the invasion of Iraq in 2003 as the right decision, by 2008 only 38% of Americans still felt it was the right decision. Those thinking it was the wrong decision had grown from 22% in 2003 to 54% in 2008. Clearly, some had come to believe that the invasion (based on the idea of Hussein having weapons of mass destruction) had been poorly conceived. Thus, it is not surprising to find that for voters in 2008, the biggest issue was the Iraq War: the majority of people regretted the US’s presence in Iraq by that point. The Bush doctrine had not succeeded with the people, who had been initially motivated by 9/11 to act—to do something—anything—to show some kind of opposition to terrorism and get some retribution for the fall of the Twin Towers. By 2008, the majority of Americans (according to Pew) viewed Iraq as the wrong choice.

Graph 3. Change in American opinion on Iraq War.

Demographic Group Variation

“Since the war in Iraq began in 2003, have you, personally, done any of the following, or not?) How about...publicly opposed the war by participating in a demonstration or writing to a public official?” That is the question from CNN/USAToday (2006).

From this Gallup poll sponsored by CNN and USAToday in 2006, the data shows that 87% of respondents answered NO to the question, indicating that they had done nothing in the way of political action to oppose the war in Iraq. In terms of age group that had answered YES to demonstrating or writing a public official, the age bracket of 50-64 was highest (15%) with 58 respondents out of a total of 985 saying they had expressed their opposition to the war in Iraq in some way.

Education was a big factor among those who answered YES: 21% of respondents who had a College Plus level of education had expressed opposition, while only 8% of those with only a high school graduation expressed opposition. This suggests that the more college one had, the greater the chances of opinion against the war being held. However, the poll still showed that 79% of those with a College Plus level of education had done nothing to oppose the war in a public manner.

Yet another big factor, though, was ideology: 31% of those identifying as Liberal answered YES—they had publicly opposed the war in some way. Only 4% of those identifying as Conservative answered in the same way. And 12% of those identifying as Moderate likewise answered YES to doing something to oppose the war in Iraq in public. In terms of Party ID, those who identified as Independent answered with the most YES responses (18%) followed by Democrats (17%) as compared to only 5% of Republicans answering YES. In terms of region, those on the East coast (18%) and West coast (17%) answered YES the most, with flyover country (Midwest/South) answering YES only 9%-10% of the time.

Graph 4. Public expressions of opposition to the Iraq War in 2006 by demographic.

Interestingly, ideological divide was non-existent in the ABC News/Washington Post poll from 2008, in which respondents identified the most important issue for the upcoming presidential election as being the Iraq War: 19% of Conservatives felt this way compared to 21% Moderates and 22% Liberals. Even more interesting, however, is that only 15% of Democrats felt the Iraq War was the most important issue in 2008, while 19% of Republicans felt it was, and 23% of Independents felt it was (ABC News/Washington Post, 2008). This suggests that Democrats had other issues more important to them in 2008, while the rest of Americans wanted some resolution to the Iraq War by the end of Bush’s two terms in office. It looks, one could say, like buyer’s remorse by 2008.

In terms of gender, there was virtually no difference in how the question was answered in the CNN/USA Today (2006) poll. 13% of males and 13% of females answered YES. So this factor was the same for both. Income was also not much of a factor in determining differences, as YES respondents were roughly equivalent from 10% to 15% across all income divides from under $30k to over $75k a year. Race and ethnicity measures were not observed. Neither was there any real gender divide in the poll by ABC News/Washington Post (2008) two years later.

This demographic data suggests that public opposition to the war in Iraq in 2006 was, if done at all, something that Independents and Liberals tended to do, much less so conservatives. This is probably because Bush was a Republican president; and in 2008 Republicans lost the White House, as Liberals, Democrats, and Independents rallied behind Obama. However, the 2008 poll by ABC News/Washington Post does suggest that Republicans demonstrated their public opposition to the Iraq War, which the survey shows was clearly important to them, by voting at the polls.

Partisan and Ideological Group Variation

Graph 5. Most important issue.

In the ABC News/Washington Post (2008), there is very little difference across partisan and ideological groups, as has been pointed out above: 19% of Conservatives, 21% of Moderates, and 22% of Liberals felt the Iraq War was the most important issue in the upcoming election of 2008. However, this does not indicate whether these people were opposed to it or whether they approved of it. It just shows that for all ideological groups, it was viewed as the most important issue in 2008. That was certainly not the case, however, by 2017. And looking at which groups publicly opposed the war in 2006, the data from the CNN/USA Today (2006) poll shows that Independent and Democrat voters had opposed the war in some way in public (18% and 17% respectively) as opposed to only 5% among Republicans. So while roughly one in five Conservatives though the war was the most important issue in 2008, only 5% of them likely opposed it—at least, that was the indication in 2006.

Nonetheless, the 2006 data shows that Republicans and Conservatives gave more support to the war than Independents and Democrats. Independents are understandable as they fall outside the partisan politics framework, often thinking for themselves on matters and not following the party line of one side or the other (Gibson, 2004; Spencer & Wood, 2014). Democrats likely opposed the war, moreover, since the war was begun by a Republican president, and the partisan divide is strong in US politics (Iyengar & Westwood, 2015). These findings thus confirm existing research about partisan views on foreign policy (Cavari & Freedman, 2019).

Attitudes about Foreign Policy Goals

The War in Iraq and US attitudes about foreign policy goals have been a contentious and polarizing issue in American society and politics. In general, American attitudes about foreign policy goals have been shaped by a combination of factors, including media exposure, national security concerns, economic interests, and political ideology (Javed & Hashmi, 2021).

At the time of the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Bush administration framed the war as necessary to protect the United States from the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) in the hands of Saddam Hussein\\\\\\\'s regime. This justification aligned with the public\\\\\\\'s concern for national security, which has traditionally been a primary goal of US foreign policy.

However, as the war dragged on and evidence of WMDs proved to be limited, many Americans began to question the wisdom of the invasion and the cost in terms of lives and resources (Pew Research, 2008). This shift in attitudes was reflected in declining public support for the war and calls for a more cautious approach to foreign policy (ABC News/Washington Post, 2008).

Moreover, political ideology also played a role in shaping attitudes about the war in Iraq. Those on the political left generally were more likely to oppose publicly the war as an unnecessary and costly military adventure, while those on the right were more likely to support it as a necessary component of the broader War on Terror. This was apparent in the CNN/USAToday (2006) poll.

Ultimately, US attitudes about the War in Iraq and foreign policy goals reflect a complicated and somewhat evolving set of factors, including how the media spins the war, what the national security concerns are, whether there are other issues like economic interests or healthcare concerns (as happened under the Obama Administration, which redirected attention away from Iraq to domestic matters), and, as always, political ideology (Iyengar & Westwood, 2015; Spencer & Wood, 2014). Despite differences of opinion, most Americans seem to support the idea of a foreign policy that prioritizes national security, protects American interests, and promotes stability and democracy abroad (Liberman & Skitka, 2019). That is probably why the majority of Americans supported the war in 2003; i.e., there was bipartisan feeling that the war was the right decision (Pew Research, 2008). Once the patriotic feeling dissipated after 9/11 and no WMDs were found in Iraq, Independents began to ask more questions and criticize. It got to the point in 2008, where the war was the most important issue to voters. Democrats and Independents were more willing to hold the presidential office accountable than Republicans, however, in 2006 (Voeten & Brewer, 2006). And by the time of the Trump Administration, almost no one seemed to care anymore about it.