Why Americans perceive crime as increasing despite declining statistics

Crime

There is a big difference between perception of crime and actual crime statistics, a gulf that has become quite clear in recent years. The statistics show that crime of all types is decreasing, but it is still widely reported that the public has a perception that crime is increasing. There are a number of factors for this, but the reality is that crime is decreasing in the United States.

Crime Statistics

The FBI tracks hard numbers with respect to crime in the U.S. Violent crime in the U.S. has been trending down for a long time, and the statistics bear this out:

FBI (2015)

The decrease in property crime has been even more dramatic:

FBI (2015)

Perceptions of crime, however, can be influenced by the type of crime, with more severe crimes standing out more in people's minds. That said, murder rates have been steadily decreasing for several years, as have rapes. The rate of aggravated assault increased in 2014, but is much lower today than it was in 2005 (FBI, 2015). The statistics show clearly that crime in the U.S. is decreasing.

Influences on Crime

There are a number of factors that influence aggregate crime rates. Law enforcement factors usually matter, as law enforcement's work is a key input into crime statistics (i.e., you could lower 'drug crime' dramatically simply by having police stop charging for marijuana possession). Much crime is committed by repeat criminals -- locking them up longer gives them less opportunity to commit subsequent crimes.

Social factors matter, too. Social controls that stigmatize or normalize criminal behavior can have an influence on crime rates. That there has been a steady decrease in crime points to a society that is less tolerant of many types of deviant behavior, where more people are raised to follow society's norms with respect to behavior. I do not believe there is evidence of religion being related to crime -- plenty of religious people commit crime. I do not believe economic factors matter - people commit crimes in violation of social norms, not because they are making a rational economic choice. Most people in the world are poorer than "poor" Americans and still do not commit crimes. Criminals are always the ones who reject social norms about criminal behavior, and the antecedents of that are more social and psychological than anything else. Things like parenting styles, and strength of community matter more in curbing crime rates than how rich or poor, or religious, a place is.