Republic of China in Taiwan and People\'s

¶ … Republic of China in Taiwan and People's Republic of China, have been engaged in an age-old conflict since the Xinhai Revolution. The two sides have since been divided on ideological grounds fueled by foreign elements. After defeating Taiwan in the war of liberation, China has maintained dominance over Taiwan till date.[footnoteRef:1] [1: Hutchings, Graham. Modern China: A Guide to a Century of Change. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2001.]

The Taiwan crisis has become an ongoing issue. At present, there is rising tension between the two sides amid growing talks of Taiwan's independence. The hypothesis of the escalating situation in the order of most likely are 1) diplomatic solution, 2) limited intervention, or 3) direct attack.

Section II -- Most Likely to Occur: Diplomatic Solution

There is indication based on evidence that the Peoples' Repubilic of China and Taiwan will resolve the crisis by direct or multi-lateral negotiations. Hu Jintao, though firm on his position of non-tolerance on the Taiwan's independence, has indicated inclinations to flexible political relationship with Taiwan. He seems to adopt both soft and hardline stand on the Taiwan issue, on one hand willing to negotiate and on the other unwillingness to continue talks without preconditions.[footnoteRef:2] The impediment to the negotiation efforts in resolving the crisis diplomatically would be Hu Jintao's hardlinen stand and maintainance of military build-up against Taiwan as well as continued diplomatic isolation of Taiwan. This would lead to continued rise of diplomatic tension and would refute the diplomatic solutions hypothesis. [2: Sisci, Francesco. "Hu Jintao and the new China." Asia Times, June 28, 2006. Taiwan Affairs Of-ce of the State Council. The Taiwan Question and Reuni-cation of China . Beijing: PRC's government, 1993.]

Therefore, the gesture by the leader of People's Republic of China Hu Jintao appealing directly to the U.N. Secretary to intervene in the crisis, is a positive one considering that China is viewed by the international community as the aggressor. On the other hand President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) endorsement to send representatives to the mainland to discuss the situation is a positive rejoinder. These remarks indicate that there is an opportunity to solve the issue politically, it is a show of willingness to negotiate among the key stakeholders in the crisis, China, Taiwan and the United Nations. The impediment to the current favorable political situation in resolving the crisis would be Taiwan. However, The Taiwan's Central News Agency indicated in a report that Ma Ying Jeon (KMT) representatives were already in the People's Republic of China conducting undisclosed negotiations. This is an indication of the level of commitment the two sides have given the issue and their willingness to resolve it. The evidence outlined in the matrix are consistent and in unison point at a probable political solution to the problem.

Section III -- Next Most Likely to Occur: Limited Intervention

The People's Republic of China is has historically applied coercive measures and threats of military action against Taiwan. According to Blanchard and Jennings, Taiwan has a record of China's expanding arsenal targeting it.[footnoteRef:3] In addition, Taiwan estimates that China still has 1,000 to 1,500 missiles ready to attack . The Taiwan Straits Crisis was a clear indication of PRP's military tactics. This event was intended to send a warning to lee Teng-hui who seemed to shift progressively from the One China policy. In the absence of evidence, assumptions would change if Hu Jintao had not made any positive gestures and the U.S. continued on the military intervention plan, this hypothesis would be discredited. [3: Blanchard, Ben, and Ralph Jennings. "ANALYSIS - China military threat to Taiwan rises despite detente." www.thestar.com. September 1, 2009. ]

Evidence supporting possible limited intervention, include Premier Hu Jintao's request to the United Nations. The United Nations Security Council agreement to Hu Jintao's request giving more weight to a diplomatic solution. In addition, President Obama's caution to Shu Chin-Chiang to accept the "status quo" by not increasing the current tensions, represents multi-lateral participation, was a strong indicator that the key stakeholders in the crisis were more than willing to find an amicable political or diplomatic solution and not a military one. The United States has all a long shielded Taiwan against People's Republic of China's military threats. During the Taiwan Straits Crisis, United States sent two aircraft carrier battle ships to the region to prevent possible war. The weight of this hypothesis, lyes on the involvement of the United Nations Security Council and the United States in the crisis in prevention of possible direct attack.

Section IV-- Least Likely to Occur: Direct Attack

It is unlikely that the people's Republic of China will engage direct attacks or military force against Taiwan in the ongoing crisis. Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, states that the People's Republic of China succeeded the Republic of China as the new government of China, implying that Taiwan is part of the PRC.[footnoteRef:4] Based on this fact, direct attack is possible since Taiwan is subject to the Anti-Cessation Law, which allows violent means against the island in case it declares independence. Examining historical events in the region suggest that indeed PRC is ready to engage non-peaceful means in maintaining Taiwan as a province. However, there is a general assumption that the People's Liberation Army will not attack Taiwan because of the United States commitment in protecting Taiwan. However the ranking of this hypothesis is most likely to change, if the value of a diplomatic solution is compromised on a deception. [4: Taiwan Affairs Of-ce of the State Council. The Taiwan Question and Reuni-cation of China . Beijing: PRC's government, 1993.]