The Taiwan crisis: diplomatic solution versus military intervention

¶ … Republic of China in Taiwan and People's Republic of China, have been engaged in an age-old conflict since the Xinhai Revolution. The two sides have since been divided on ideological grounds fueled by foreign elements. After defeating Taiwan in the war of liberation, China has maintained dominance over Taiwan till date.[footnoteRef:1] [1: Hutchings, Graham. Modern China: A Guide to a Century of Change. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2001.]

The Taiwan crisis has become an ongoing issue. At present, there is rising tension between the two sides amid growing talks of Taiwan's independence. The hypothesis of the escalating situation in the order of most likely are 1) diplomatic solution, 2) limited intervention, or 3) direct attack.

Section II -- Most Likely to Occur: Diplomatic Solution

There is indication based on evidence that the Peoples' Repubilic of China and Taiwan will resolve the crisis by direct or multi-lateral negotiations. Hu Jintao, though firm on his position of non-tolerance on the Taiwan's independence, has indicated inclinations to flexible political relationship with Taiwan. He seems to adopt both soft and hardline stand on the Taiwan issue, on one hand willing to negotiate and on the other unwillingness to continue talks without preconditions.[footnoteRef:2] The impediment to the negotiation efforts in resolving the crisis diplomatically would be Hu Jintao's hardlinen stand and maintainance of military build-up against Taiwan as well as continued diplomatic isolation of Taiwan. This would lead to continued rise of diplomatic tension and would refute the diplomatic solutions hypothesis. [2: Sisci, Francesco. "Hu Jintao and the new China." Asia Times, June 28, 2006. Taiwan Affairs Of-ce of the State Council. The Taiwan Question and Reuni-cation of China . Beijing: PRC's government, 1993.]

Therefore, the gesture by the leader of People's Republic of China Hu Jintao appealing directly to the U.N. Secretary to intervene in the crisis, is a positive one considering that China is viewed by the international community as the aggressor. On the other hand President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) endorsement to send representatives to the mainland to discuss the situation is a positive rejoinder. These remarks indicate that there is an opportunity to solve the issue politically, it is a show of willingness to negotiate among the key stakeholders in the crisis, China, Taiwan and the United Nations. The impediment to the current favorable political situation in resolving the crisis would be Taiwan. However, The Taiwan's Central News Agency indicated in a report that Ma Ying Jeon (KMT) representatives were already in the People's Republic of China conducting undisclosed negotiations. This is an indication of the level of commitment the two sides have given the issue and their willingness to resolve it. The evidence outlined in the matrix are consistent and in unison point at a probable political solution to the problem.

Section IV-- Least Likely to Occur: Direct Attack

It is unlikely that the people's Republic of China will engage direct attacks or military force against Taiwan in the ongoing crisis. Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, states that the People's Republic of China succeeded the Republic of China as the new government of China, implying that Taiwan is part of the PRC.[footnoteRef:4] Based on this fact, direct attack is possible since Taiwan is subject to the Anti-Cessation Law, which allows violent means against the island in case it declares independence. Examining historical events in the region suggest that indeed PRC is ready to engage non-peaceful means in maintaining Taiwan as a province. However, there is a general assumption that the People's Liberation Army will not attack Taiwan because of the United States commitment in protecting Taiwan. However the ranking of this hypothesis is most likely to change, if the value of a diplomatic solution is compromised on a deception. [4: Taiwan Affairs Of-ce of the State Council. The Taiwan Question and Reuni-cation of China . Beijing: PRC's government, 1993.]

The evidence representing a judgment of direct attack as unlikely include, the PLA issuing orders to tentatively mobilize several air and ground units throughout the PRC, which are believed to be in preparation for deployment into the Nanjing Military District, located directly across from Taiwan. Furthermore, the National Security Agency (NSA) reported that the PLA has ordered submarines from Canton, Zhangzhou, and Whenzhou to prepare for "operations." In addition, the Linchpin evidence of Chief of the PLA's General Staff, General Liang Guanglie instruction to review all applicable plans as well as the U.S. Pacific Command reports on the increase by 50% of Fighter Regiment patrols within the Taiwan Straits. On the contrary, Hu Jintao values the economic and cultural ties between PRC and Taiwan, therefore, this can be key in averting military action. This could have been the major reason for his call to the United Nation's intervention.