New York crime trends and patterns

¶ … Crime Reduction

The Decline of New York City Crime and Potential Conceptual Misunderstandings:

Criminologists make their best effort to draw scientific conclusions based on empirical evidence. However, it is logically impossible to ascertain the precise reasons for crime reduction with certainty. Additional error exists in the form of the misinterpretation of statistics and retrospective analysis. On the other hand, the available evidence suggests that directed patrol corresponding to the specific needs identified by the Compstat system was very instrumental in reducing crime in New York City. The Compstat concept is consistent with intuitive expectations of directed patrol instead of random personnel increases.

Police Action or "Broken Windows" Theory?

One of the reasons it is largely impossible to determine definitively whether crime reduction is attributable to police action or to the broken windows concept is that policing policy changes do not take place in a vacuum. Rather, even the best-conceived policing policies occur simultaneously with other substantial societal changes (such as coincidental changes in economic conditions, demographics, larger regional or national crime statistics, or penal sentencing practices) that could likely contribute concurrently to crime reduction. The broken windows concept likely did contribute to crime reduction in New York City; the fact that a specific focus on "quality-of-life" and nuisance crimes roughly coincided with the introduction of Compstat makes it even harder to credit each with its specific effects, much less exclusively.

3. The Ethics of Civilian Field Research in Policing: