Obama-One or Two Terms Obama-

Obama-One or Two Terms Obama- One or Two Terms Despite considerable negative statistics overhanging his first term; President Barack Obama will win re-election for a second term. Reelection Statistics Gallup Job Approval Rating at 43%. No President has ever been re-elected with such low job approval" (Rove, K. March 1, 2012). "If Mr. Obama's approval rating is at the top of that range, 50%, on Nov. 6, 2012 -- about where it is now -- the model figures that his chances of winning re-election will be greater than 80%" (Silver, N. January 28, 2011). Country headed in right direction.

"The current 18% satisfied at the start of January is among the lowest Gallup has found during a presidential re-election year, with lower ratings occurring only in 1992, the year George H.W. Bush was defeated" (Saad, L. January 16, 2012). Economy A. Unemployment Rate- February UR 8.3%. "Obama is in the company of Ford, Carter, Reagan, and George H.W. Bush -- all presidents who served when unemployment exceeded 7% in the year leading up to their re-election bid.

For the most part, the difference between successful and unsuccessful presidents when it comes to unemployment is momentum. Unemployment was flat or increasing under Carter and George H.W. Bush, and they both lost. Unemployment was declining under Reagan, and he won" (Saad, L. January 16, 2012). B. Gross Domestic Product- Grew by 3% in fourth quarter of 2011. "GDP growth was 3.5% or better with few exceptions in 1964, 1972, 1984, and 2004, and improved considerably over the course of 1996, and the presidents seeking re-election in those years all won.

GDP growth was tepid in 1980 and well into 1992, and both presidents running for re-election in those years lost" (Saad, L. January 16, 2012). Obama's tenure has produced some of the slowest growth in GDP. "The nearby chart compares rates of quarterly growth during the Reagan and Obama economic recoveries. The comparison is apt because both recoveries followed deep recessions in which the jobless rate reached more than 10%. Once the Reagan recovery got cooking, in 1983, growth stayed above 5% for 18 months and never fell below 3.3% for 13 consecutive quarters.

In the Obama recovery, growth has never exceeded 4% in any quarter and fell off markedly in mid-2010 through the third quarter of 2011. For the first nine months of 2011, growth averaged less than 1.2%. The economy finally picked up again in the fourth quarter, but still at a rate that is subpar for a recovery that long ago should have become robust and durable" (the Wall Street Journal. January 25, 2012). C. Consumer Confidence- "U.S. economic confidence remained relatively stable last week with an Economic Confidence Index score of -22 (Jacobe, D. February 28, 2012).

Positive figures have proven to predict election winners: Clinton, G.W. Bush, while negative values have predicted losing campaigns G.H.W. Bush lost (Saad, L. January 16, 2012). A broader study of consumer confidence by the Conference Board indicates that scores under 100 mean a losing reelection bid. Ford, Carter, and Bush had scores of 87, 65, and 61 respectively. Winners: Reagan, Clinton, and G.W. Bush had values of 100, 107, and 106 respectively (Economist Outlook.blog. June 17, 2011) Obama currently has a 75 score (Rove, K. March 1, 2012). III. Health Care A.

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) is unpopular. "Nationally, some 50% of those surveyed said that passage of the law was a "bad thing" while 42% said it was a "good thing." Some 38% of swing state voters said passage of the law was a "good thing." (Scicchitano, P. February 27, 2012) B. The individual mandate, a core component of ObamaCare is extremely unpopular. "A USA Today poll this week finds that 72% of voters believe the mandate to be unconstitutional" (Jenkins, H. February 28, 2012) C.

Supreme Court will decide in June 2012 if ObamaCare is a Constitutional act of Congress. IV. Opponent A. As of March 1, 2012 four candidates remain as Republican nominees for President: Romney, Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich. The eventual nominee will factor heavily into the election outcome. Weak candidates such as McGovern in 1972, Mondale in 1984, and Dukakis in 1988 were beaten despite economic conditions that might have impacted the race. V. Unforeseen Factors A. Increasing Gas Prices on their own might cloud the President's.