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W. Bush, while negative values have predicted losing campaigns G.H.W. Bush lost (Saad, L. January 16, 2012). A broader study of consumer confidence by the Conference Board indicates that scores under 100 mean a losing reelection bid. Ford, Carter, and Bush had scores of 87, 65, and 61 respectively. Winners: Reagan, Clinton, and G.W. Bush had values of 100, 107, and 106 respectively (Economist Outlook.blog. June 17, 2011) Obama currently has a 75 score (Rove, K. March 1, 2012).
III. Health Care
A. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) is unpopular. "Nationally, some 50% of those surveyed said that passage of the law was a "bad thing" while 42% said it was a "good thing." Some 38% of swing state voters said passage of the law was a "good thing." (Scicchitano, P. February 27, 2012)
B. The individual mandate, a core component of ObamaCare is extremely unpopular. "A USA Today poll this week finds that 72% of voters believe the mandate to be unconstitutional" (Jenkins, H. February 28, 2012)
C. Supreme Court will decide in June 2012 if ObamaCare is a Constitutional act of Congress.
IV. Opponent
A. As of March 1, 2012 four candidates remain as Republican nominees for President: Romney, Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich. The eventual nominee will factor heavily into the election outcome. Weak candidates such as McGovern in 1972, Mondale in 1984, and Dukakis in 1988 were beaten despite economic conditions that might have impacted the race.
V. Unforeseen Factors
A. Increasing Gas Prices on their own might cloud the President's...
International Incident- an Iranian incident or Israel preemptive strike could put Americans in Obama's camp if they want the security of the incumbent.
Conclusion: Taking the contrarian view of the statistics and signposts; President Barack Obama will win his bid for re-election in November.
References
Economist Outlook.blog. (June 17, 2011). Consumer Confidence and Election Results.
Economic Outlook.blog. Retrieved March 1, 2012 from http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2011/06/17/consumer-confidence-and-election-results/
Jacobe, D. (February 28, 2012). U.S. Economic Confidence Flat Last Week. Gallup.com.
Retrieved March 1, 2012 from http://www.gallup.com/poll/152990/Economic-Confidence-Flat-Last-Week.aspx
Journal. Retrieved March 1, 2012 from http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204520204577251352548365994.html
Retrieved March 1, 2012 from http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203753704577253402657446144.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Gallup.com. Retrieved March 1, 2012 from http://www.gallup.com/poll/152051/obama-faces-challenging-election-climate.aspx
Their Families. NewsMax.com. Retrieved March 1, 2012 from http://www.newsmax.com/U.S./Obamacare-Gallup-USAToday-/2012/02/27/id/430708
Times.com. Retrieved March 1, 2012 from http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/approval-ratings-and-re-election-odds/
Journal. Retrieved March 1, 2012 from http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204520204577251352548365994.html
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