Questions: an overview of inquiry and interrogation

Pakistan is currently ruled by an Army General, Parvez Musharraf, with barely a fig leaf of a democratic set-up. President Bush has developed a good working relationship with the general in a mutually beneficial deal whereby the U.S. props up Musharraf and Pakistan helps the U.S. In its anti-terrorist operations in Afghanistan. Now that Musharraf's hold on power seems to be weakening with a popular anti-government lawyers' movement gathering momentum and President Bush's own term in office is about to end, the U.S. is confronted with the uncertain prospect of dealing with a post-Musharraf Pakistan. Since Pakistan's role is critical to the U.S.'s "War on Terror," analysts in the U.S. are worried about the prospect of an anti-American and pro-Taliban government in Pakistan. The past electoral history in Pakistan, however, shows that radical Islamist parties have never commanded the support of the majority voting public and the moderate pragmatic forces are likely to come to power in a free and fair election. Pakistan's weak economy also compels its governments to maintain a friendly relationship with the U.S. And any future government is likely to continue supporting its antiterrorism efforts in Afghanistan.

Pakistan and India have a history of hostile relations particularly over the contentious issue of Kashmir. Pakistan has supported a militant secessionist movement in the Indian side of Kashmir over the last two decades. After the 9/11 terror attacks and an international backlash against terrorism, Pakistan has found it difficult to sustain its covert support for the mainly Islamist militants against the Indians. As a result, Pakistan has been forced to revise its Kashmir policy and start dialogue for a peaceful settlement over the issue with India. But the Indian government feels no pressure to give in to any of Pakistan's demands over Kashmir and the peace process has not made much headway despite claims to the contrary by both governments. There is no doubt that Pakistan did support the militants in Indian Kashmir in the past; the current international climate against terrorism, however, makes it difficult for Pakistan to continue or restart such covert support in the foreseeable future.

Pakistan's border with Afghanistan is notoriously difficult to control effectively. Hence, Pakistan's armed forces have found it difficult to control the cross-border movement of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda forces across it. Some analysts in the U.S. have suggested an aggressive policy of hot pursuit across the Pakistan border to "take-out" the suspected terrorist sanctuaries. This would be a mistake. There is already much popular resentment against the U.S. In Pakistan, especially in the border areas. Any attacks by the U.S. forces inside Pakistan, which would invariably entail "collateral damage," are likely to fuel further anti-Americanism. The current policy of Musharraf to seek co-operation of the local tribal chiefs in the border areas against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda should be supported by the U.S. A political, rather than a purely military solution to the problem, is the only viable option for the Americans.