Peak Oil the Idea of Peak Oil

Peak Oil

The idea of peak oil has been the subject of much debate in the recent years because of the human population's increasing demands on energy. The term "peak oil" refers to the point at which global petroleum extraction has reached its maximum. Following this moment, petroleum will quickly run out and there will be none left. Within an individual oil dig, there is a period where oil can be extracted until the oil has all been removed. The belief of some is that there will be a global moment of peak oil wherein all of the oil fields in the world will become used up. Some feel that easily accessed petroleum locations have all been found and used (Inman 1). In the future, oil companies will have to take more drastic measures to find deeper petroleum deposits in the earth, leading to worsened environmental conditions. Other experts believe that peak oil is mythical because there are other forms of energy which could be tapped should it become clear that the current methods of energy obtainment were being depleted. After reading all of the various expert opinions and their statistical evidence, it becomes clear that while peak oil may be a problem in future generations, at present there is no real need for the people of the world to be concerned.

Most of the critics who believe in the concept of peak oil point to the analyses of M. King Hubbert as evidence that their perspective is the correct one. Hubbert, writing in 1956, wrote that the United States would hit peak oil between 1965 and 1970. He wrote that this would in turn have devastating effects on the world's population. However, he didn't write anything about other potential energy sources which could supplement petroleum. His estimates also do not take into account oil reserves either in the United States outer continental shelf or Canada's oil sands (Udovich 1). Hubbert was writing more than fifty years ago and he was unaware about either these innovations or these oil sources. Therefore, his research is ill-informed and his findings rendered questionable. Experts who continue to point to Hubbert even with the knowledge that there is data that is absent from his analysis are equally flawed.

Since the 1970s environmental and economic analysts have been predicting the end of the world. When the cost of oil increased in 1973 and 1979, it was believed that this would indicate the end of oil usage (Campbell 1). The analysts made the claim that since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was able to charge such high prices for oil, then logic would follow that the world was completely dependent on the use of oil from the Middle East. However, according to Colin Campbell, this is untrue. He said that, "the five Middle Eastern members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) were able to hike prices not because oil was growing scarce but because they had managed to corner 36% of the market" (Campbell 1). It is not that the Middle East is the only provider of petroleum; just that they have a large percentage of the control.

The United States government has invested much time and money into determining what if any voracity can be given to the idea of peak oil. In 2005, claims were made that by 2008 the population of the earth would have used up half of the world's oil supplies (Benner 1). The United States government did agree at that time that peak oil was a verifiable concern, but that the peak would occur in 2037, not 2008. They made this decision after examining the current oil usage and comparing this with estimations of new oil sources. Given these vastly differing estimations, one has to question which data should be believed and what should be more closely examined.

Colin Campbell says that those who predict the end of the world to coincide with peak oil, make three faulty assumptions. He says:

First, [the critics] relies on distorted estimates of reserves. A second mistake is to pretend that production will remain constant. Third and most important, conventional wisdom erroneously assumes that the last bucket of oil can be pumped from the ground just as quickly as the barrels of oil gushing from wells today (Campbell 1).

In order to predict the potential dangers of peak oil, researchers must make themselves more aware of the truth of the current situation. When more recent and developed information is analyzed, it becomes evident that those who believe in peak oil are using outdated and dilapidated research.