Political stability and national security in Nigeria's Fourth Republic

Political Stability & National Security in Nigeria: Challenges & Prospects

Method of data analysis

Limitations encountered

Strategies for political stability to enhance national security

Political stability and national security in Nigeria: Challenges and prospects

The research will focus on the effects of political stability and national security in Nigeria. The time span of the study is between 1999 and 2010. This period was chosen to enable the researcher examine the effects of political stability on national security in Nigeria's Fourth Republic which has witnessed peaceful civilian to civilian transition.

This study is divided into five chapters in which the first chapter is the introduction part followed by the second chapter for literature review and research methodology. The third chapter spells out the findings from the research, while the fourth chapter looks at the strategy for political stability to enhance national security; the last chapter concludes the research with some few recommendations being put across.

Introduction

Statement of the problem

At the inception of the Fourth Republic in 1999, there were popular expectations that Nigeria's new experiment with democracy will bring political stability which in turn will enhance national security. However, certain political events within the first 10 years of this experiment with democracy raised some anxiety about the future of the country. Specifically, the 1999 CFRN has remained a source of threats to political stability.20 Elections which ought to be means of legitimacy and peaceful change of government have degenerated to fraud and violence. Several mandates were stolen in 2003 and 2007 elections leading to loss of legitimacy by political leadership. In addition, government's policies and programmes have not alleviated poverty or improved quality of life to majority of the citizens. These have adversely affected political stability which could impact negatively on national security. These emerging threats had led to insecurity in the form of ethno-religious violence, militancy, armed robbery and abject poverty. Thus, whether political stability is alleviating these internal threats to national security is a problem which the researcher seeks to find answers. Consequently, this study will address the following research questions:

What constitute political stability and national security?

What is the relationship between political stability and national security?

What are the effects of political stability on national security in Nigeria?

What are the challenges and prospects associated with political stability and national security in Nigeria?

What strategies can be adopted to address the challenges of political stability in order to strengthen national security in Nigeria?

Aims and objectives of the study

The general objective of the study is to examine the effect of political stability on Nigeria's national security with a view to identifying the challenges and prospects, proffering strategies and making recommendations. The specific objectives of the study are to:

Establish the meaning of political stability and national security.

Establish the relationship between political stability and national security.

Examine the implications of political stability on national security in Nigeria.

Identify the challenges and prospects associated with political stability and national security in Nigeria.

Proffer strategies that can be adopted to ensure political stability strengthens national security in Nigeria.

Significance of the study

This study will be useful to the political class at federal, state and local government levels in formulating policies that will help in steering the conduct of governance. It will also be useful to various government functionaries in the executive, legislative and judicial arms of government in enacting laws that could promote political stability in order to enhance national security. Furthermore, it will be relevant to Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) like National Democratic Institute (NDI), Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), Civil Liberty Organisation (CLO), and Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) working on issues of governance and security in Nigeria. Donor agencies working on governance and development issues in Nigeria such as the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Department of Foreign Development (DFID) and Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) will also benefit from the findings. Finally, the study will be relevant to the academia as a useful reference material to future scholars and catalyst that will stimulate other studies on political stability and national security in Nigeria.

Literature review

In this chapter, the key variables; political stability and national security were conceptualized, and the relationship between them was established.

Political stability

According to (Ehindero 157)[footnoteRef:8], the concept of political stability is the ability of a political system to retain the support of its people for government policies within a stable range. It also implies the ability to avoid radical and sudden change, within a political and socio-economic environment. The most important characteristic of a stable political system is identified as low level of actual and potential civil violence. This concept stipulates the basic principles of political stability. However, it did not signify what constitutes avoidance of radical and sudden change in socio-political environment within a country such as Nigeria. Hence, it is inadequate for this study. [8: Ehindero 157]

On the other hand, (Nwolise 14)[footnoteRef:9] conceptualizes political stability as the stability of a government and is also the situation in a country in which government runs its tenure and is peacefully and constitutionally changed. Again, this concept is not explicit on the type of stability whether authoritarian, charismatic or democratic based on developed institutions. Stability could be attained based on suppression of the opposition as have been witnessed in several African states like Cote'd Ivoire. Hence, it is not considered apt for this study. [9: Nwolise 14]

(Mohammed1)[footnoteRef:10] asserts that political stability is the steadiness and firmness of political institutions and processes within the political system as well as absence of threats to an existing pattern of authority and behavior. As recognized by Mohammed, the key drivers in political stability are strong political institutions and absence of threats to authority. However, even the most developed democracies such as the U.S. occasionally experience threats. What is important is for the political system to device mechanism for overcoming these challenges. Based on the foregoing this concept is considered not all encompassing and it is therefore, not adopted. [10: Mohammed1]

From the foregoing, it is explicit that different scholars have their different opinions on what constitute political stability. However, the common denomination is the emphasis on the consistency of a political system and its institutions. Consequently, political stability shall be taken for the purpose of this study as the existence of a political system based on functional political and socio-economic institutions to deliver good governance to improve quality of life for citizens. Also, it includes competent institutions that are, evolving, involving and reflecting the moral consensus, mutual interest, principle, tradition, myth, purpose, or code of behaviour that the persons or groups have in common. This concept, apart from emphasizing the importance of functional political institutions, it also highlighted the need for participation in resolving the differences when the need arises. The concept has the potential of impacting positively on national security.

National security

(Lippman 6)[footnoteRef:11] posits that a nation is secured, when it is capable not to lose its core values, life, property and liberty, and if it wishes, to deter aggression or win war when unavoidable. National security therefore is always the primary concern of every country as it bears on the fundamental needs of individuals and groups as well as the survival of the nation as a viable entity. Consequently, Lippman views national security in terms of the survival of the state and protection from external aggression through the use of the military. His opinion is considered as too narrow as the international system has made the concept of national security to be no longer based on sufficient military strength to defend national interests. Thus this concept is inadequate for this study. [11: Lippman 6]

According to (McNamara 149)[footnoteRef:12], national security means development in a modernizing society. Security is not a military force, though it may involve it and security is not traditional military activity though it may include it. Therefore, security is development and without development, there can be no security. This discourse is in line with contemporary concept of national security based on both development and military force, but negates natural disasters which humanity needs to be protected from its effects. Hence, it is not adopted for this study. [12: McNamara 149]

In the context of this study therefore, national security is the totality of efforts taken to protect the territorial integrity and the cherished values of the nation and its citizens. Also, it involves improvement on the living standard of the people through delivery of good governance and development. Furthermore, national security guarantees freedom of citizenry from all forms of anxiety, threats to life and property, peace and ethno-religious harmony and food security. Finally, national security entails protection of citizens from natural or man-made disasters, strengthening the rule of law and transparent political and socio-economic institutions.

Relationship between political stability and national security

The primary responsibility of a government is to create political stability to retain the support of its people within a peaceful and conducive environment to protect lives and properties. This could be achieved through delivery of good governance and transparent political and socio-economic institutions to improve quality of life for its citizens. When the government succeeds in carrying out these responsibilities to create stable political atmosphere, then national security is enhanced. However, when government fails in these responsibilities, national security suffers. (Akinyemi 67-77)[footnoteRef:13] [13: Akinyemi 67-77]

Furthermore, in a stable political environment, political institutions have the capacity to resolve challenges when the need arises. Thus, it could create peaceful atmosphere with the potential of impacting positively on national security and people could go about their normal business to improve their living conditions. In other words, national security depends on sustainable political stability. Hence, there is a direct and associational relationship between political stability and national security

Methodology

The research design adopted in this study is field survey and secondary analysis. The choice of the survey method was informed by the need to collect data from informed opinions on the subject matter. The choice of secondary analysis is to enable the researcher benefit from existing literature on the subject matter. The breakdown of the procedure adopted is outlined below:

Sources of data

Data were to be collected through primary and secondary sources.

Method of data collection

The methods for collection of data are outlined below:

Primary data

Primary data were collected through unstructured interviews with members of the political class, seasoned academics and CSOs working on issues of governance and security, members of the Jury, Trade Union (TU) executives. Also, security chieftains within the Armed Forces and the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) would be interviewed.

Secondary data

Secondary data were collected from books, journals, magazines and newspapers. Others include published and unpublished lectures, conferences and seminar papers, and online sources. Consequently, the researcher made use of the library facilities at National Defence College (NDC), Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR), University of Abuja, University of Jos and National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), Kuru, Jos.

Method of data analysis

The data collected were analysed qualitatively using logical reasoning to arrive at cogent deductions and recommendations

Method of data presentation

The findings of this research were reported descriptively.

Limitations of the study

The major limitations of the study were the inability to obtain classified documents and materials relating to political stability and national security in Nigeria. In addition, some of those scheduled for interview were inaccessible for interview up to the time of concluding this work especially some key members of the political class. However, this limitation did not adversely affect the validity of the study as enough primary sources were consulted and interviewed. Consequently, findings from primary sources were used to support and corroborate the secondary sources of data. Thus the quality and objectives of the study are attained

Findings and discussions

Assessment of Nigeria's political system and process in the last two decades

Nigeria is mostly common among many for being among the few countries specifically in Africa and the world that embraces a federal system of government, in that it has a political system of government whereby several states unite but keep considerable control over their own internal affairs. Over the past two decades the country's political system and process has been on a critical assessment as to whether it has restored civilian democracy in the country or not and more in particular is how it deals with challenges such as democratic politics, national unity and socio-economic development. The result of this assessment will have great implication for federal system of government, institutionalization of democracy and for the accommodation of religious, ethnic and linguistic diversity in the African continent (Diamond 209- 226)[footnoteRef:14]. [14: Diamond 209- 226]

Before President General Olusegun Obasanjo was elected in March the year 1999, the political system and process of the country didn't record much of a success with its federal system that was widely supported for its capability to retain the country's unity in spite of the multi-religious society and multi-ethnicity. This is because it had mostly been under the rule of military officers, poor democratic governance coupled with violation of human rights, lack of economic development and also lack of a peaceful resolution of ethnic conflicts or crisis in the country (Elaigwu 34)[footnoteRef:15]. [15: Elaigwu 34]

The last two decades has seen Nigeria's political system and process transform to become more democratic and the most remarkable transformation was the shift from military rule to an elected civilian government in the 1999 elections which saw Olusegun Obasanjo being elected the country's president. His leadership including those of other successive leaders after his term, have been applauded for increased widening and deepening the democratization process in the country.

Indication of political stability in Nigeria since 1999

Since the elections of 1999 that was also the third time for the country to return to civilian democracy, Nigeria has witnessed political stability that has being mainly attributed to the foundation laid by the then President Obasanjo whose government's main objective was to strengthen the country's democracy by encouraging dialogue with all the relevant stakeholders and addressing some of the structural causes of political alienation and poverty in the country. Political analyst and various authors among them (Gofwen, 55-72)[footnoteRef:16] noted that President Olusegun Obasanjo's administration succeeded in establishing a democratic system of governance coupled with the practice of constitutional democracy that both created a conducive policy making environment for socio-economic development and for the improvement of the quality of life for the Nigeria citizens. [16: Gofwen, 55-72]

The ability of the political system to retain the support of electorate and the reduction in civil violence and coup de tat in Nigeria has been a positive indication that at least political stability is returning back to the country, which in the past decades has been under the rule of military leaders.

The stable economy and continued increase in foreign direct investment has only been possible because of the country's political stability that it has experienced since 1999.

According to reports released by the international institute for democracy and electoral assistance (International IDEA), they point out that among other indicators of political stability in Nigeria since 1999; the most notable two have been the continued commitment by the successive governments in supporting the judicial commission for the investigation of human rights violations dating back to 1986, with an aim of healing deep-seated wounds and dealing with the past so as to forge national unity necessary for political stability. The other indicator of political stability in the country is the constitutional reforms that have been aimed at asserting back the rule of law and making the judicial system independent unlike in the past decades where there were military autocracies.

Assessment of Nigeria's political stability

Thou Nigeria experienced a decade of uninterrupted democracy and civilian to civilian transition, (Jinadu 56)[footnoteRef:17] laments in his studies that after a thorough assessment of the political stability it is evident that there are still some challenges mostly in political structure and performance that have the potential of jeopardizing this stability witnessed so far in the past decade. Important to note in this assessment is that there has been remarkable initiatives aimed at enhancing better and accountable economic management coupled with the increased fight against corruption. Also a commendable improvement has been observed in regards to human rights and liberties. [17: Jinadu 56]

The political class has been faulted for being divided even on matters of national unity, while the executive arm of the government is accused of at times acting against the people's interest and government institutions are criticized as being largely dysfunctional. There is lack of basic goods, majority of the population is improvised and the frequent outburst of social violence undermines the political stability in the country.

There are more constitutional reforms that are required to enhance the political stability, economic empowerment and fair distribution of resources is also necessary to eradicate poverty together with some of the violence associated with it and according to (Onyeoziri 78-88)[footnoteRef:18] electoral reforms are much needed in for Nigerians to have more confidence in the independent national electoral commission, all of which will guarantee Nigeria the much desired long-term political stability. [18: Onyeoziri 78-88]

How political stability has affected national security in Nigeria in the past decade

As mentioned earlier, Nigeria has in the past decade experience political democracy and successful transition of power from one civilian government to another, this factors have contributed to the political stability that is currently being witnessed in the country. The civilian government is mandated with the responsibility of establishing a political stability so as to retain the electorate's support within a peaceful environment and it can achieve this only by the civilian government delivering good governance, transparent political and socio-economic institutions so as to improve the quality of life of the Nigerian peoples.

According to recent reports released by different relevant bodies; Nigeria's civil government thou has created political stability in the country it has failed to deliver on national security that's associated political stability. The governance indicator reflecting the period of 1999-2009 carried out by the World Bank showed that Nigeria scored a mark of-2.01 which signifies high violent and politically less stable society. According to BBC's 2009 country profile of Nigeria, the onset of civilian government in the country has rather resulted to increased violence among different ethnic and religious groups as a form of demonstration of their frustration with the government rather than the expected peaceful and conducive environment. And refereeing to Nigeria's commercial guide notes released by the U.S. Department of Commerce in 2008, the degeneration of the country's national security is largely attributed to the government's failure to address the issue of poverty that has affected majority of its citizen and the inequalities in the allocation of oil revenues.

How the Niger delta, Jos and Boko Haram crisis has affected political stability and national security in Nigeria

(Watts 2-21)[footnoteRef:19], is quoted in his studies suggesting that "the Jos, Niger delta and Boko Haram crisis should all be viewed as leading causes of increased political instability, homeland insecurity, deterioration of public infrastructure and the gradual economic turndown that the country has been experiencing so far" he further laments that all of these crisis and more in particular the sectarian violence have a negative social impact that also threatens the country's democratic governance and stability, sovereignty, well-being and security of the nation and its nationals. The sectarian violence reportedly has the potential to destroy social morals and peaceful co-existence among the multi-ethnic population of the Nigeria and produce lawlessness and dysfunctional behaviors in the society, which has a direct bearing on the political process. [19: Watts 2-21]

According to (Zabadi and Gambo 65-81)[footnoteRef:20] the greatest hindrance to full attainment of democracy in Nigeria is the continued insecurity of lives and property, that is evidenced by the upsurge in religious and ethnic conflicts, assassinations, armed robbery attacks all of which are enabled by the poor handling of criminal acts by the country's security agencies. [20: Zabadi and Gambo 65-81]

Challenges militating against political stability in Nigeria

The rampant corruption that not only flourishes in government institutions but the whole of Nigeria and the high crime levels that Nigeria is most commonly known for, like the 419 scam, both of these vices tend to threaten the political stability of the nation in the long run.

Nigeria's multi-cultural and religious background of its populations has proven to be big challenge that has over the past decades threatened the country's political stability. The country has been divided into three main ethnic groups that makes up almost seventy percent of the entire population. The other division is between the Muslims and Christians nationals. Both of these divisions be it on religious or ethnic backgrounds, have since time in memorial failed to co-exist peacefully, consequently creating national disunity that hinders the attainment of ultimate political stability in the country (Obafemi 11-23)[footnoteRef:21]. [21: Obafemi 11-23]

The most notable challenge that militates against political stability in Nigeria as described by (Ogunmodede 78)[footnoteRef:22] and echoed by various international political analysts is the conflicts that have repeatedly rocked the nation, for example the Niger delta conflicts, Jos and Boko Haram crisis. These conflicts are mostly associated with differences based on ethnic or religious backgrounds, the unequal distribution of oil revenues coupled with environmental degradation and the frustrations caused by high levels of poverty among a majority of the population. [22: Ogunmodede 78]

According to (Onyegbula 38-63)[footnoteRef:23], Nigeria's geographical location also forms another hindrance for its political stability. Nigeria share borders with country that experience political instability like Ivory Coast and there has reportedly been spill over, of guerilla fighters and refugees from such regions into Nigeria which places its' own political stability and security at a risk. [23: Onyegbula 38-63]

Prospects of political stability in Nigeria

The prospects of political stability in Nigeria had been heightened by the shift from military rule to civilian rule in the 1999 elections and also the 2007 elections that marked also another show of political stability as power was transferred from one civilian President to the other i.e. from President Olesegun Obasanjo to the late Umaru Yar'Adua. This year will also mark another landmark elections as again the seat of Presidency will be battled out among civilian candidates and analyst point out that the possible re-election of the seating President, Mr. Goodluck Jonathan who is a Christian will be a good prospect for the country's political stability.

Perhaps the most remarkable prospects of political stability in Nigeria was the election of President Obasanjo in 1999 who is widely credited for initiating a wide range of reforms in the country that include the economic and financial crimes commission that was mandated to wage war against the rampant corruption that was being witnessed in the country (Bertsch 12-43)[footnoteRef:24]. [24: Bertsch 12-43]

Referring to studies conducted by (Hutchful 599-634)[footnoteRef:25] the continued reforms on the constitution, judiciary and the Independent national election commission also prove that the country is in the right path to be politically stable. [25: Hutchful 599-634]

The Nigerians themselves have given consensus to democracy and over recent years the conflicts arising out of ethnic or religious differences have drastically reduced, there are also various bodies of the government that have being charged with the responsibility to address key issues that usually lead to conflicts or crisis within the country.

Strategies for political stability to enhance national security

The quest for Nigeria's national security is the issue of political morality and stability, which focuses on the question of defining the relationship between the state and various groups in the society. Political stability if properly constructed seeks to establish and sustain the essential conditions for the smooth functioning of the state and society.

According to (Goldstein)[footnoteRef:26] political stability that will enhance national security in Nigeria is only attainable by increasing the democratic governance through increased political participation by all the stakeholders. Public participation in national politics can be enabled by a vibrant civil society, aggressive media and improved economic conditions, at the same time restricting access to violent means by the political class. [26: Goldstein]

A strategic approach to strengthen the formal political institutions so as to create a healthy balance of power among the elite should be adopted to enhance the national security. Efforts should be made to make the legislative and judicial branch of the government more independent from the executive arm of the government. The powers of the local and state government should also be increased vis-a-vis that of the federal government and also the decentralization of presidential powers on the control of public revenues, all of which according to (Anyaoku)[footnoteRef:27] are positive steps to enhancing good governance that will improve national security. [27: Anyaoku]

Political stability brought about by a credible election process, accountability and transparency in public institutions, public participation in the policy making process through local governments or community associations is also another strategy that will enhance national security.

Conclusion

The research was intended to look into the political stability and national security in Nigeria and thus it concludes first by acknowledging that in that last decade the country has recorded increased stability and security unlike the previous decades and this can largely be contributed to the shift of power from military governments to civilian governments. However after thorough assessment of the country's political system and process it's apparent that political stability a direct associate of national security has some challenges as well as prospects for improvement. This research concludes by giving out a few recommendations on how political stability can be enhanced to attain national security.

Recommendation

Appropriate steps should be adopted to strengthen the democratic governance of the country that will assure political stability and national security; this can be achieved by establishing or conducting electoral reforms so as to assure the electorate of free and fair elections that are set to be held this year. Another recommendation is for the establishment of a vibrant opposition that will act as the public watchdog on democratic governance, hence assure the public of increased political stability and security (Obafemi)[footnoteRef:28]. [28: Obafemi]

The strengthening of the civil society by engaging the society as a whole through advocacy, the voice and participation of citizens will also lead to democratic reforms that will cater for the public interest (Tunji et al. 23-28)[footnoteRef:29]. [29: Tunji et al. 23-28]

The empowerment of legislative function and process can guarantee the promotion of good governance because it will enhance the participatory role of the legislature as a check and balance on the strong executive arm of the government and secondly it will also increase the potential of civil society to lobby and productively interact with the parliament.

The public should demand for a more effective and accountable justice system that can be achieved by improving the capacity of key justice sector institutions this will go a long way in making sure that the rule of law is observed even by the political elite and hence there will be increased political stability and national security (Anyaoku)[footnoteRef:30]. [30: Anyaoku]

(Akinjide 112-156)[footnoteRef:31] recommended that effective government bodies should be established like the truth and justice commission to address the pressing issues in the society that usually lead to conflicts and crisis, on the other hand the security agencies should be well equipped to not only control but prevent such conflicts from happening. [31: Akinjide 112-156]

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