Politics of Aging

Elderly Voting Trends and the Current Election There is an election in the United States which is fast-approaching and which bucks the trend of recent history wherewith it can be said that the two candidates are virtual mirror images of one another. Illinois Senator Barrack Obama, at age forty-seven and coming from a mixed- ethnicity, is a clear departure from the patrician and elderly white man which has traditionally dominated the electoral field. And as he is polling nearly ten percentage points ahead of his opponent, the inconsistent and sometimes conservative seventy-two year old Arizona senator John McCain, it appears more than likely barring an unforeseen incident of cataclysmic relevance, Obama will be victorious on election day. In order for him to succeed, Obama must overcome some significant obstacles, not the least of which is the voting perspective and ambition of America's elderly. As the nations most politically active and electorally represented demographic, the elderly hold a key stake in the way America votes, channeling their particular interest in such issues as healthcare, social security and the economy into a mobilized block of absolutely crucial voters. The dynamic impact of the elderly on an election is certain not lost upon the two major party candidates, who have spent no small amount of time courting the support and interest of the elderly. The determinant impact which they will have on this election is indisputable. But just exactly how the elderly will vote on this coming Tuesday is a matter of great importance to either candidate, with McCain relying on lingering vestiges of racism, pro-war sentiment and a degree of conservative resonance in order to bring the elderly to his support camp. Obama, by contrast, has based his campaign on the promise of a brighter future for America, inviting the elderly to vote with a conscience instead of with self-interest. This distinctly liberal courtship of support, particularly as it contrasts the prurient appeal of a McCain-type figure to the elderly, brings this account to a discussion on the roles played by the elderly in the electoral scheme. With this in mind, we consider an interesting theoretical sentiment. Indeed, Winston Churchill once said, "If you were never a liberal at twenty; you have no heart. If you are not a conservation at age fifty; you have no brain". This is a sentiment with great importance to our discussion about electoral and party demographics. Wattenberg, in his essay "Should Election Day Be a Holiday" describes the leading non-voters in two distinct groups. He has come to the conclusion, through statistical analysis, that these two groups consist of the young and the ill educated (no high school diploma). Conversely, Wattenberg sees the best voter turn out in the elderly. Wattenberg puts forth several reasons that these two aforementioned groups year after year have dodged the voting booth. Beginning with the youth, he finds that Generation X and consequently this current generation of youths (the MTV Generation?) for the most part neither follows nor is active in politics. One possible reason, which helped to precipitate the elderly vote's uncontested certainty in support of President Bush, may be that these younger generations of voters had led a significantly more stable/peaceful life, at least prior to the events of September 11th. Proceeding from the years of the Clinton Administration, where the United States appeared to be on a positive social, economic and cultural trajectory, the younger voters of a generation ago did not have a meaningful or encompassing issue around which to coalesce. Instead, the MTV Generation has watched campaign scandals, corporate cronyism and sex deviance with a degree of assumed distance. The young are disenchanted with the system at large, and instead of rallying to change it, many have refused to even participate. In addition, even because this generation has been raised on what Wattenberg calls "narrowcasting" rather than "broadcasting", it is often avoid exposure to politics. Whereas in the past the only television options were CBS, NBC, and ABC and people had to watch political debates, today most people including the youth are given access to a greater variety of media options. This makes it possible to establish a closer connection to the political process where one desires, but it also makes it that much easier to disconnect. For the elderly, this is often a case which is eschewed by a sense of personal investment in the decisions which are made at the highest levels. Just as the younger voters have tended historically to distance themselves from the political process, they have helped to empower the elderly voting block. The interests of the elderly, therefore, play a greater role in the electoral promises, policy platforms and campaign agenda that define an election. And without question, evidence does point to a heightening interest by senior citizens in this level of engagement. This evidence actually connects elderly voting trends to more modern aspects of the electoral process, with Wattenberg finding that "it is noteworthy that senior citizens are actually voting at higher rates today than when Medicare was first starting up. Political scientists used to write that the frailties of old age led to a decline in turnout after age sixty; now such a decline occurs only after eighty. The greater access of today's seniors to medical care must surely be given some credit for this change." (Wattenberg, 1) This, more than any one particular issue or aspect of the political process, has tended to bring a heavy focus to the contributions of the elderly in the biannual tradition. Indeed, regardless of platform differences, major candidates today will spend a significant (if not majority) proportion of campaign time appearing in retirement communities, long term care facilities, veteran's associations and other venues where such voters tend to congregate. There is little question that the tenacity of elderly voters has attracted the attention of presidential candidates in recent election cycles, with the proportion of their vote actually constituting a potentially determinant stake. This election is no different, as both Obama and McCain have focused attentively on conveying their respective messages to senior citizens, who do indeed find themselves at the center of a number of very important issues. With the economy in shambles and the healthcare industry weighed down by incongruous cost growth, the elderly are directly impacted by much of what is occurring today. Certainly, "there's been a lot of talk about young voters boosting the vote for Obama. But because of older voters' higher turnout for elections, they could be a more decisive voting bloc in the Nov. 4 election. And, overall, polling has shown them backing 72-year- old McCain, a Vietnam prisoner of war." (Hefler, 1) And that does capture the reality of most recent election events, where the resonance of important issues with young voters has not appeared to tilt the scales back this way. As the electoral process stands today, those in their twilight years will tend to have a greater direct impact on our collective future than will those in their formative phases of political development. In the current election, which for the Democratic challenger has been used as a needed referendum on the failures of the current administration, the need for change has resonated with the young. Amongst those in their 60s and older in the retirement community assessed in the article, McCain is out- polling his opponent nearly 2:1. (Hefler, 1) Even with Obama's currently comfortable lead going into the final days of the campaign, the threat that this voting block could play a determinant role with respect to the decisions made by undecided voters is a serious one. The elderly vote is, in many regards, still very much in play. For younger Americans and members of the labor class, the pressures of daily subsistence are significant enough in a recessive economy to be virtually overwhelming. Indeed, in many ways, the reasons the uneducated and poor are underrepresented in the vote are directly related to the institutionalized demands of day to day life. Karl Marx coined the phrase "subsistence wages". to refer to the fact that uneducated workers are generally only paid wages scaled to sustain themselves without extra money or luxury. And indeed, during a time of inflation and stagnant income such as the current time, younger and more labor oriented individuals have come face to face with the Marxist presumption denoting subsistence wages to be a form of social control. In many labor contexts, wages are low enough and living expenses high enough that a laborer will have to work long enough and hard enough each day that he will lack the political will, energy or ability to improve policy impacting his situation. For the retiree, the implications of those conditions negatively impacting his living situation are me dominant to the perspective, inciting a direct responsiveness that in many ways may be derived from the far greater proportion of disposable time. And of course, there are deeply rooted cultural implications to the cultural divide which play into an election such as our current race. Returning to the Churchill quote, we note that the Democratic Party, the relative left wing of today's political world, does contain the majority of the young vote in America. It is also the case that many members of the labor class and the majority of minority citizens also make up the Democratic Party. Conversely, Republicans tend to be an older, wealthier, and whiter than Democrats. The Republicans swept the 2002 election and left

our George W. Bush with no significant opposition to any of his agendas. In the Federalist Papers James Madison warns that checks and balances are necessary to ensure that no one faction possesses too much power. During a rare moment in history, this election would deliver us to a time of singular Republican dominance, with both houses of Congress and the Executive office occupying America with an aggressively militaristic and socially conservative agenda. These are characteristics which would promote a cultural sympathy for the perspective of America's senior citizens. And where the presidency of George W. Bush has been concerned, the elderly have tended to be a lynchpin to his electoral success even as policy and performance ratings have tended to suffer. As a 2008 article from The Senior Journal notes, in the 2004 presidential election, "Mr. Bush received support from 53 percent of voters 60 and over, compared to 46 percent for Kerry, according to the exit polls. The vote was slightly different for those 65 and older, with only 51 percent supporting Bush and 48 percent for Kerry." (Senior Journal, 1) Given some of the obstacles to political engagement or voting for the young or working class American, we may deduce that the combination of a very high senior voter turnout as described here above and the considerable gap in party support, will generally result in a Republican victory. Though there may be little that can be done to alter the cultural patterns that cause a resonance between certain Republican issues and a general mode of senior conservatism, it should at least be reasonable to stimulate higher percentages of voter turnout amongst young voters and the labor class. The Wattenberg text offers several solutions for how this can be accomplished. A reasonable idea for boosting the worker vote is to make Election Day a national work holiday. This would give the laborer at least an opportunity to participate in election day without fear of occupational reprisal. Still, the far more vexing problem of bringing the younger generation to the polls might also be addressed by the creation of such a holiday, which might underscore the importance of voting to the whole of the nation. At present, however, there are no credible discussions concerning the creation of such a policy. Thus, it is only electorally prudent to pursue the youth vote with balance to a pursuit of the senior vote. In fact, in the case of Republican candidate and supporter of the outgoing administration, John McCain, it would be fair to say that the senior vote is the most important voting population in his constituency. Indeed, a high-ranking member of the Bush Administration and a campaign advisor for McCain, Tom Ridge remarked in a recent article that McCain's strengths as a senior citizen himself are the very same which appeal to older voters. To this end, "Ridge said he thinks McCain appeals to older voters because they appreciate that age gives you experience, and that, 'It's not what you say, it's what you do.' (Hefling, 1) A statement which is as much a slant against Obama's highly regarded oratorical skills as it is a statement in favor of McCain's public service record, Ridge's sentiment underscores the view which often tends to create a degree of association between the elderly and the Republican party. That notwithstanding, there are patterns in the elderly voting public that are suggesting, concurrent with other demographic shifts during the current election, that the elderly may at least in increasing numbers find support for Obama. Perhaps chief among the factors which does help Obama is the indication that certain factors are decreasing the elderly vote altogether. In the context of the modern election, one aspect which is changing the tide for voters is that concerning the nature of balloting. Given the balloting breakdowns which have occurred in recent presidential elections, there is a justified share of scrutiny which has been paid to the manner in which votes are now being cast. One measure which continues to experience a justified wealth of scrutiny is the computerized voting machine, which records your selection without the provability of a paper trail. In addition to this and various implied relationships between ballot machine manufacturers and competing political parties, the electronic voting machine is under intense scrutiny. Separate to this conflict is another clear point of evidence that the use of such machines has had a discouraging impact on the voting tenacity of the elderly. According to an article from 2003, "consistent with the hypothesis that computers scare the elderly, we find a significantly negative relationship between the change in voter turnout and the elderly share of the population. An additional 1% of the population that is elderly is associated with a 0.3-0.4% decrease in turnout. The hypothesis that elderly voters were apprehensive about the change in voting technology is also supported by the increase in absentee balloting." (Roseman & Stephenson, 39) And given the demographic trends which have been precipitated by the scale of the baby boomer generation, the population of seniors is growing faster than the population of new voters. Therefore, the fact that evidence suggests a declination in senior voting turnout in contexts where computer balloting has been instituted is suggestive of the assumption that this technology has been alienating to an historically reliable voter group. And in the current election, while the losing McCain candidacy has all but ignored a youth vote which of late especially seems to find nothing appealing about the Republican party, Obama's focus has been multi- stratified. First and foremost, his campaign has been fueled by young and minority voters who are determined to take a leading stake in the future of our nation, and who are driven by a sense that the senior citizenry which has so often occupied positions of leadership in our nation are those very same leaders who have led us astray in recent years. The expectation, therefore, is that the youth vote will actually constitute an important response in this election to historical dominance by older voters. Nonetheless, Obama's campaign does recognize the influence which elderly voters tend to have on the electoral process. His recent focus has been on stimulating an awareness amongst older voters that the promise of another Republican administration will have negative consequences for senior citizens and the issues that they care about. This shift is exposing a Republican vulnerability even in this stalwart support group. At present, "Obama appears to be gaining ground among seniors. In an AP-GfK Poll earlier this month, the two candidates were in a statistical tie." (Hefler, 1) This is remarkable and promising, suggesting that many of the wedge issues which have been used to define the political stripes of specific demographics are increasingly impotent in the face of real and mounting evidence that recent leadership has been a failure for Americans of all ages. The presidential election upcoming promises to be an important demonstration of the need for change in America, with voters young and old aligning to bring Obama the presidency. The unpopularity of the outgoing administration and the various identifiable failures of the presidency, not the least of which is the floundering economy, have demonstrated that in many ways, the elderly tend to vote according to that which most directly effects their lives. From this perspective, even cultural sentiments which might foster racial hostility toward Obama from some senior citizens or anger over the impression that the anti-war movement is either anti- military or unpatriotic will likely not be significant enough to repair McCain's deficit. Though McCain is likely to fare far better amongst seniors than amongst most other demographic groups, a block which might usually be seen as a guarantee for a man of the Republican candidate's advanced age is today fully in play. This discussion offers clear evidence that senior citizens tend to culturally and politically trend toward the right. And in the past, where Democratic candidates have appeared to champion something of a more centrist or conservative platform-such as was at least rhetorically the position with Clinton and Gore-the elderly have responded with strong support and an unparalleled voter turnout. In the case of this election, it cannot be said that Obama resonates with the conservative or the centrist. Instead, he does largely come armed with a progressive policy approach that is typically alienating or intimidating to older voters. But America's recent struggles have highlighted the fears of so many senior citizens who have watched social security funds dwindle, who have seen healthcare and drug plans skyrocket in cost and who have contended with a tanking economy on a fixed and rigid income. More than any other group, seniors work very hard to remain informed on the issues that are directly pertinent to them. Therefore, there is a clear understanding amongst many as to what is at stake in the current election. It is not entirely clear which way the elderly vote will swing in this election, but it does promise to be a significant factor. In nearly every modern election, the winner of the senior vote has also been the winner of the presidency.