¶ … Military Decision Making Process You are the S-3 of the 6th Ranger Battalion conducting mission analysis on 27 January 1945 at the Ranger base camp at Calasiao on the Lingayen Gulf. Provide a complete movement estimate that LTC Mucci and his staff would use to develop plans and analyze various courses of action. Although you have the benefit of hindsight, write your running estimate as you would have on 27 Jan (in the present or future tense) rather than as an AAR in the past tense. Although there are some guides and formats to a generic estimate, as well as a sample medical estimate included with this examination, you can modify those formats or develop one to help you present your analysis to LTC Mucci. Your movement estimate should include, but is not limited to:

Time available to conduct the operation before the Japanese decide to move or murder the POWs, and how much time to allocate to planning, preparation and execution.

Maintaining secrecy in varied terrain during day and night operations.

The appropriate balance of speed and security.

The best time of day to initiate actions on the objective.

The anticipated distances covered by, time required to, and rates of movement for:

the Ranger advance to the POW Camp

actions on the objective

the movement of Rangers & former POWs and 6th Army to a link-up point

Japanese counterattacks.

How Filipino civilians and guerrillas, as well as the U.S. Army Air Corps can help expedite friendly forces or impede enemy forces.

1. SITUATION AND CONSIDERATIONS

a. Area of Interest

The situation at hand places the Rangers in a unique position to conduct rescue operations at the prisoner of war camp in the Philippines known as Cabanatuan. The nature of this rescue operation considers the fact that Japanese have taken over this island from the native Philippines and have used it to conduct military operations. The prison, or target location is situated within an area that is clear of vegetation. The prison camp is lightly guarded and is used as a transient station for enemy troops.

b. Characteristics of the AO

- Terrain

The terrain is very flat and open. Little vegetation exists providing minimum cover and concealment. If any at all.

-Weather

The weather for the 29 January is hot and humid and very typical for this jungle environment. The sun will rise very early near 6 AM and set late near 9 PM. The Moon will provide nearly 100% illumination for the next 3 days warranting consideration on the timing of the raid.

Enemy Forces

There is considerable enemy forces within the area. The intelligence estimated that there are between 100- 300 Japanese soldiers residing in the camp. While only a percentage are there guarding the camp, while another percentage, is resting and or transitioning. Near the camp however a formidable enemy force of 1000 lie northeast of the camp across the Cabu River. An estimated reserve force of 5000-6000 is stationed in Cabantuan City.

Friendly Forces

The friendly forces within the camp are mostly weakened and frail POW's that are operating at 50% capability or less. Ranger Unit. Scout Unit. Guerillas.

Civilian Considerations

The success of this mission will largely depend on the ability of friendly forces to work with the civilian population located along the way to the prison camp. The native Guerilla forces will ultimately play a large role in ensuring these relations are aligned in a useful manner.

Facts/Assumptions

Both the enemy and friendly numbers within the prison camp are estimated based on air surveillance photos and local intelligence. These numbers will be further refined as intelligence assets gather current information. The health and well-being of the POWs are not completely clear either. Their ability to be rescued will be dependent upon their physical strength and health.

2. MISSION

Task Force rescues POWs from prison camp using combined raid with guerilla forces by 30 January 1945 in order to prevent mass casualties of those captured soldiers.

3. Analysis

In determining the right Course of Action it is necessary to first determine time constraints inherent in the mission. Intelligence estimates that NLT 30 Jan is the deadline before...

Another possible COA may be based upon the enemy forces relocating the POW's to another location. Due to the situation the time and nature of the attack, the raid should occur at dusk or dawn.
Key to the success of this mission is the unit's ability to maintain a concealed position during the movement operations. The ability of the unit to successfully operate in the night will be of great assistance in creating an advantage on the battlefield. The incorporation of the local guerilla forces will also be key to maintain a secure and safe pathway for the POWs.

The selection of a link point will be key in determining the success of this mission. POW's should be required to walk as little as possible during this rescue effort. POW's should not be expected to be in very good health and some ambulatory efforts will also be needed. The overall success of this mission will depend on the ability of combining the many different forces that have been designated for this rescue operation. A successful blend will be needed in order to execute this mission with success. Tempo will play a large role in the battle and the ability for the raiding forces to overwhelm the enemy with shock and pace that will capture the momentum of the effort.

REQUIREMENT #2: The Problem (10 Points. Approximately one-half of a double-spaced page)

Using previous course material, the Military Review article, and the student aid, articulate LTC Mucci's problem including at least ONE critical element for each mission variable (METT-TC).

LTC Mucci's problems can be articulated and organized using the METT-TC acronym and applying what is known to this model. The mission itself is critical due to the nature of the effort. The rescue attempt requires a highly coordinated effort with many different organizations and units. The ability to cohesively incorporate these varying pieces will determine the success of the effort. The enemy is problematic due to the unknown number of these forces occupying the camp as well as their strength to fight.

The terrain is problematic due to the fact that it does not offer much cover or concealment and is relatively flat. The weather is hot and humid providing a problem for the operation. The night time illumination due to the full moon also presents a problem for cover. The troops and support available for this mission is problematic due to the necessity of coordinating with a large group of foreign guerilla fighters. The time available is problematic due to the expected evacuation or murder of the soldiers. The civil considerations in this case also are problematic due the proximity of many civilians in and around the area of operations.

REQUIREMENT #3: The Mission (10 Points. Approximately one double-spaced page)

While developing his commander's estimate, LTC Mucci brainstormed three different words to use for his ESSENTIAL TASK in the mission statement: Liberate, Raid, Secure. Citing your references, (a) provide a current U.S. Army doctrinal definition for EACH of the three words (or dictionary definition if no doctrinal definition exists), and then (b) select and justify which one to include as the essential task in the Rangers mission statement. Note: You are not required to write a mission statement -- only to select and justify which one word LTC Mucci should use as the essential task in his mission statement.

Part a)

Army Doctrine Reference Publication (ADRP) 1-02 offered the following definitions for the relevant terms in this case study:

RAID -- (DOD) An operation to temporarily seize an area in order to secure information, confuse an adversary, capture personnel or equipment, or to destroy a capability culminating with a planned withdrawal.

SECURE -- A tactical mission task that involves preventing a unit, facility, or geographical location from being damaged or destroyed as a result of enemy action. (FM 3-90-1) See also assault; breach; denial measure; destroy; reduce; suppress; tactical mission task.

The Merriam-Webster Dictionary defined LIBERATE as "to free someone or something from being controlled by another person, group, etc. To give freedom or more freedom to someone. To take or steal something."

Part b)

The essential task in this would be the proper liberation of the soldiers. The commander's intent is focused on rescuing the lives of the worn down POW's and reestablishing their humanity. This is liberation is key because these POW's offer no real tactical advantage over the enemy. The morale from the liberation of the POW's can be collectively lifted throughout the ranks when such a liberation occurs. This method of leadership is based on the qualities expressed in the idea of freeing the POW's.

REQUIREMENT #4: Purpose and Task (30 Points total. 6 Points each. One to two double-spaced pages. See example response. You must write in sentences rather than bulletized form.)

SELECT FIVE OF THE EIGHT ELEMENTS FROM THE LIST BELOW.

0. The Filipino Guerrillas

0. The Alamo Scouts

0. 1st Platoon Charlie Company

0. 2nd Platoon Charlie Company

0. 2nd Platoon Foxtrot Company

0. The Filipino Civilians

0. The Radio Team in Guimba

0. The 6th U.S. Army

For each element selected, (a) list the most important contribution (TASK) that…